But that&#x27;s still not the question.<p>The stated question is <i>When you are awakened, to what degree should you believe that the outcome of the coin toss was Heads?</i><p>Not, <i>Should you _guess_ Heads or Tails?</i><p>The probability of the coin toss _does not change_. The probability that &quot;the reason they are waking you up is because the coin was Heads&quot; does change, but that&#x27;s not the question.