You are wrong.  It is mostly random.  Even pg admits it because the only two metrics he can come up with that are somewhat meaningful signals of success is pedigree of its founders and having co-founders.  They even eschewed having a good idea to present, at least a couple of years ago.<p>Even with having the same metrics for the YC entrants, they still get more than a 50% failure rate.<p>It&#x27;s mostly random.