Exactly this.  I came to make the same comment, but unsurprisingly someone has beat me to it.  In particular, the answer to the &quot;paradox&quot; in a nutshell is this:<p>&gt; There&#x27;s no change in belief happening, only two different beliefs. First is &quot;1&#x2F;2 of the times it is flipped, the coin will be heads&quot;. Seconds is &quot;1&#x2F;3 of the times I am awakened, the coin will be heads&quot;.