This fits with my understanding of what&#x27;s happening here.  The SO discussion is a bit unclear as you go down the page, but the initial statement of problem up top clearly claims that you&#x27;re questioned each time you awaken.<p>I think you&#x27;re quite right to point out that <i>being correct</i> is the only fair heuristic for this question.  Several of the defenses of a &#x27;halfer&#x27; belief amount to &quot;you ought to believe this so that your beliefs obey this type of decision theory&quot;.  Actively believing something with a (reliably) worse payout to conform to a rule about belief seems like a terrible form of epistemology.<p>On a related note, are you familiar with Newcomb&#x27;s Paradox and the LessWrong debates over it?  They get to a similar idea of &quot;correctness above all&quot;.