&gt;<i>Thus, in rough numbers, the chance that a funded company goes on to become a billion-dollar business is 0.005 percent to 0.016 percent. Rounding to any significant digits, that’s basically zero.</i><p>I&#x27;m really getting tired of these calculations of &quot;the chance&quot; of a startup doing X. You are not a lottery ticket. It&#x27;s not random. The 20 year-old version of Mark Zuckerberg beats the 20 year-old version of me every time. Business isn&#x27;t exactly chess, but it&#x27;s a lot closer to hold&#x27;em than it is to a lottery.