First of all, how often you&#x27;re correct doesn&#x27;t matter; say the tails option wasn&#x27;t &quot;you&#x27;ll be woken up a million times&quot;, but instead &quot;you&#x27;ll be asked <i>the same stupid question</i> a million times&quot; (and have to answer as if you&#x27;d forgotten the previous answer). <i>Of course</i> you&#x27;ll be wrong more often in the tails situation.<p>Second, the experiment isn&#x27;t run 10 times.  It&#x27;s run once.  A single coin flip.  With a multitude of flips, you&#x27;ve got no idea where you are in the sequence so it pushes your averages toward the 1:1000000.  But a single coin flip is a single coin flip, 50&#x2F;50.