The phrasing of the question is <i>When you are awakened, to what degree should you believe that the outcome of the coin toss was Heads?</i><p>It&#x27;s not actually asking for a strategy about guessing the correct answer, or how many times you&#x27;ll be right or wrong.<p>It think whether you are a <i>halfer</i> or a <i>thirder</i> is going to depend on how you interpret the question.<p>If you see it as asking about the frequency at which &quot;Heads&quot; will the right answer, then it&#x27;s clearly 1&#x2F;3. But that&#x27;s not what the question actually asks (<i>probably</i> - all language is interpreted).