the betting argument is not the same as what is being discussed.<p>to a halver, the likelihood of heads and tails are still each 1&#x2F;2, but the expected winnings of betting tails would of course be larger.<p>it would be like saying i&#x27;ll flip a coin, and if you guess correctly that it&#x27;s tails i&#x27;ll give you a million dollars. obviously i will guess that it&#x27;s tails, even though i still believe each outcome is equally likely.