I like to think of business success in light of one of my favorite quotes:<p>&quot;Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.&quot; - Seneca<p>Scott Adams&#x27; book &quot;How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big&quot; also touches on this, suggesting that skill + hard work don&#x27;t automatically result in success (there certainly are factors beyond our control), but it&#x27;s a lottery that you can keep playing over and over with no real inherent cost other than time. Especially in software, you can test a lot of ideas with very little financial risk&#x2F;investment, and persistence often allows preparation and opportunity to meet. There are no guarantees of course, except the guarantee of failure without trying.<p>A lot also comes down to your definition of success. I&#x27;d say aim high, but expect very little. Expect the kind of return you&#x27;d get from a hypothetical full-spectrum new venture ETF. A handful of unicorn successes averaged with a huge tail of losses = returns that are probably really depressing. Be happy with anything above that.