The future is hard to predict. It depends on two things:<p>* Regulations<p>* Manufacturing capacity<p>The world auto fleet is replaced pretty slowly. Perhaps its turned over quicker for every self-driving car released onto the roads. If I recall correctly, for every Zipcar shared car in a neighborhood, ~20 cars are no longer kept by owners in the area. Self-driving vehicles could have the same effect, limited to only how fast they can be built and shipped on rail to their final operational region.<p>Regulations. These are important. Self-driving cars will kill less people than human drivers. Full stop. If you incentivize people to use self-driving cars (insurance rates skyrocket for human drivers), you&#x27;ll push people to automated vehicles faster. Less deaths, less capital outlay for humanity as a whole for buying cars, lots of efficiency all around.<p>If you want to make a gentleman&#x27;s Long Bet [1] on it, I&#x27;d be down for that (token amount donated to the winner&#x27;s charity of choice).<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;longbets.org&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;longbets.org&#x2F;</a>