And herein lies the problem. You say <i>Given that you have just been awoken, what are the odds that you were awoken as a result of the coin landing heads?</i><p>But the linked post says (ambiguously) <i>When you are awakened, to what degree should you believe that the outcome of the coin toss was Heads?</i><p>I don&#x27;t think your interpretation of the post&#x27;s question is accurate, but it&#x27;s worded in vague enough terms that in effect we&#x27;re arguing about the writer&#x27;s intent rather than stats.