I put some money on Trump at 11:1 so I&#x27;m estimating the probability at higher than that. Scott Adams has a mildly entertaining series of blog posts on why he thinks he&#x27;ll win. Roughly that he&#x27;s good at persuasion techniques. <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.dilbert.com&#x2F;post&#x2F;128552964506&#x2F;the-outsider-explanation-part-of-my-trump" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.dilbert.com&#x2F;post&#x2F;128552964506&#x2F;the-outsider-expla...</a><p>One reason I think he may do it is that he&#x27;s spoken out against the carried interest exemption for hedge funds. It seems obviously fair that hedge fundies should pay as much or more as doctors and nurses and the like but the mainstream politicians don&#x27;t touch it because they want the campaign contributions and are scared of them funding their opponents instead. I&#x27;m hypothesising that the voters are fed up with their representatives being bought by wealthy special interests.