I don&#x27;t think this is a reasonable conclusion:<p><pre><code>  If we suppose humans live to around 85 years on average,
  and rarely if ever die before 65, then there&#x27;s a big bell
  curve normal distribution on 85, and what looks like a
  non-linear exponentially increasing probability of death
  up to about 80.
</code></pre>
You&#x27;re suggesting that the probability of dying <i>after</i> 85 decreases. That&#x27;s not the case, it continues to rise. If it decreased that would suggest an <i>improvement</i> in health (un-aging) at 85, which doesn&#x27;t occur.<p>Having an average at some point doesn&#x27;t mean there&#x27;s a bell curve around it. The average of a uniform distribution [0-100] may be 50, but there&#x27;s no bell curve around 50. It&#x27;s just a uniform distribution all the way through.