<i>As someone who was following the market when Gilead paid $11 billion for PharmAsset, it was not a sure thing that it would be first to market or a premier drug.</i><p>This is a fantastic point.  I remember when Gilead announced their acquisition of Pharmasset.  They were <i>ridiculed</i> in the press.  How could they be so stupid to pay that much?  Many people thought that $11B was as good as gone.<p>That&#x27;s the risk involved with drug development.  It&#x27;s like VCs, you spend a ton of money on a lot of investments, most of which fail.  Unless you get a few huge winners, it&#x27;s not a feasible business.