I think people actually have some of the AI timelines backwards.  To me, jobs like accounting and other financial services are much lower hanging fruit for AI than bricklaying, truck driving, or plumbing.  The reason being that financial services are jobs where you primarily work with numbers, and computers are already good at working with numbers.  Computers are not good at working with bricks.  In other words, automating financial services has one big hurdle (how do we teach the computers to understand financial numbers) but bricklaying has two (how do we teach the computers to understand the numbers, <i>and</i> how do we make something that can successfully work with bricks?)