What false premise? Fivethirtyeight is not wrong. In this case, with seemingly reliable tests (&gt;90% accuracy), only 27% of positive tests are correct. If you&#x27;re talking about something that has an invasive next step, like a biopsy, and you decide to increase the number of tests done each year, then you are going to also be increasing the number of unnecessary invasive procedures each year as well.<p>Take mammograms. It&#x27;s a fairly non-invasive test for breast cancer. Everyone wants to reduce breast cancer, right? Unfortunately, the data is very much like fivethirtyeight&#x27;s example. In a 10 year period, 1 in 2 women are harmed by a false positive and 1 in 5 were harmed by an unnecessary surgical procedure. What about the lives saved? None.[0] Screening mammograms only end up harming patients.<p>While it may make sense intuitively that more screening must be better, the data generally fails to back it up.<p>[0] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thennt.com&#x2F;nnt&#x2F;screening-mammography-for-reducing-deaths&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thennt.com&#x2F;nnt&#x2F;screening-mammography-for-reducing...</a>