I agree with you that we are unlikely to see any of these things because having looked at the science it is as close to certain as we can be with any observation theory that AGW is true. We may be uncertain of what will actually happen and the scale (this is very scarily give we can’t rule out non-linearities), but it appear very, very unlikely that AGW is false.<p>By the way you are the first person to even make a half-hearted attempt to answer my original question. Do you want to make the “polar ice will disappear by x year” more precise?