Agreed, and I have no inside info at all -- they&#x27;ll probably fail even, but it seems like there&#x27;s a gulf between cautious optimism and whatever is going on here.  As for the SpaceX comparison, if they do indeed send a mission to Mars in 2018, it will have been <i>16 years</i> since the company was first founded with Elon&#x27;s intention to go to Mars and 10 years after they first achieved orbit.. Hard things take time!