This is a good set of distinctions.<p>I disagree with your refutation of &#x27;luck&#x27; in point 1:<p>I agree that luck is an aggregate of &#x27;all factors beyond your control&#x27;, but I do not agree that conscious awareness is sufficient to place things into your control.  Therefore, luck includes all factors beyond our control, whether we are aware of them or not.  It&#x27;s perfectly reasonable to group these together under a category. If your argument is that aggregate categories are invalid, then you must apply the same logic to &#x27;success&#x27;.<p>More importantly, I agree with your second point, but I think it&#x27;s harmful.  Confidence based on self-deception is known as hubris, and leads to deceiving others and thus doing harm.<p>There is no need to deceive oneself in order to feel confident. That simply comes from an accurate sense of one&#x27;s capabilities and the situation one finds oneself in.