The derby has 20 horses in the competition. Winning the superfecta requires picking the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th places in correct order.<p>The possible ways to choose that ordering are 20 * 19 * 18 * 17 or 116,280 combinations.  So, a 1 in 116,280 chance of winning (which is why it pays about 11,000x -- bookies get to keep the rest!).  If this crowd-sourced horse pickin&#x27; works twice that would be about 1 in 13.521 billion odds.  So, if it can do it twice there might be something to it.  Doing it once isn&#x27;t really that big of odds.  If the favorite gets upset (Nyquist this time) then the crowdsource probably loses.  Not sure how often that happens, but it probably isn&#x27;t particularly rare.