I think your analysis is spot on...if you are looking backward.<p>Here are the points I would argue:<p><i>Digital ads have a totally different sales model and level of &quot;prestige&quot; that is unattractive to the type of advertisers who make up the bulk of the national TV advertising market</i><p>True currently. You assume however that TV is going to be the digital entertainment interface of choice for the foreseeable future. In fact it&#x27;s overwhelmingly mobile already and in the next 10 years (as an AR developer) we see that moving toward AR displays with complete replacement for a significant portion of the population by 2030.<p><i>Basically, if you have a $100 million advertising budget, you&#x27;re going to try to spend that in as few places as possible while getting the most bang for your buck</i><p>I suspect these TV budgets will drop, as new interfaces reduce cost to on-board, and then rise again over the longer term. So whereas you would line item 50M for TV, maybe that drops over the next 15 years to 5M as TV eyeballs go away and competition for share grows.<p><i>Digital ads aren&#x27;t a limited commodity like TV ads are - you can only show so many 30 second spots during the Super Bowl.</i><p>Here is where I have the most disagreement. When you reduce the channels in which people interact, there is extremely limited quantity. The overwhelming bulk of digital advertising dollars go to Google and Facebook. We have been talking for years about who controls &quot;virtual ad space&quot; [1].<p>In the end the argument to me comes down to the actual entertainment interface. People are moving away from TVs already and trends are pointing to TVs going away all together in the not-too distant future. My company is working hard to accelerate that process and we see a lot of competition forming over the last few years that is doing the same.<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;mashable.com&#x2F;2011&#x2F;06&#x2F;06&#x2F;virtual-air-rights-augmented-reality&#x2F;#boXtnV5YFGqh" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;mashable.com&#x2F;2011&#x2F;06&#x2F;06&#x2F;virtual-air-rights-augmented-...</a>