It's worth saying, the models try to be as conservative and cautious as possible, but there are certain variables that are hard to predict, which is why so much time and money is spent perfecting them. As the researchers point out, scientists at the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project database work to make the most accurate climate simulations possible.
So, what else can we expect from this warming?
"A great many record-breaking heat events, heavy floods, and extreme droughts would occur if global warming crosses the 4°C level, with respect to the preindustrial period," Dabang Jiang, a senior researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said in a statement. "The temperature increase would cause severe threats to ecosystems, human systems, and associated societies and economies."
For more information on what would happen if temperatures were to rise by 4°C, check out this interactive map from the Met Office.
And if the dire environmental consequences of 4°C warming aren’t enough to convince you, consider this: sticking to the Paris Agreement could save the world a staggering $20 trillion dollars by 2100.