Commentary: How long before North Korea can nuke a U.S. city?It’s the near future, and North Korea’s regime is on the brink of collapse. As rumors swirl of palace coups, forces on both sides of the world’s most militarized border are on heightened alert. The U.S. military faces a much bigger problem. Somewhere in the Pacific, a North Korean submarine is believed to be carrying nuclear warheads and the missiles to deliver them. And nobody knows where it is.  It sounds like the plot of a “Hunt for Red October”-style technothriller. But if Pyongyang’s technicians continue at their current pace, experts say it is becoming ever more likely.  One thing is certain: North Korea is plowing considerable resources into building its nuclear capability. And it is clearly making progress – even if Tuesday’s failed missile test shows it still has a long way to go.  Japanese officials said what appeared to be a conventional Musudan rocket, which theoretically has the ability to reach Japan and the U.S. territory and military base of Guam, exploded either as or shortly after it left its launcher. North Korea is estimated to have some 20 to 30 of the missiles – first deployed in 2007, but yet to be launched successfully.  What North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wants, most analysts believe, is simple – a rocket that can fire a nuclear warhead at least to regional targets. His ultimate ambition, however, is to be able to hit U.S. cities on the West Coast, most likely from a submarine that could hide itself at sea.  North Korea has been steadily improving its rockets – which can also carry conventional explosives – for decades. It detonated its first nuclear device in 2006 but most experts believe it has yet to build one small enough to be placed on a missile. Having the credible ability to do all of that and get the missiles to sea could take well over a decade, perhaps considerably more.  Once it happens, however, it will be a strategic game changer. At worst, U.S. cities on the West Coast would have to deal with the prospect, however remote, that they might be struck by a North Korean atomic weapon. At the very least, a North Korea armed with nuclear submarines would hugely complicate the calculus for any U.S. president handling a crisis on the Korean peninsula itself.  That, of course, is exactly the plan.  The fact that Pyongyang has conducted so many tests this year, some experts believe, suggests Kim is pushing his scientists harder than ever to deliver working rockets and warheads. North Korea is believed to have tagged the expertise of Russian Cold War-era scientists, and while its capabilities on both fronts lag well behind established nuclear states such as Russia and China, it is already believed to be well ahead of Iran.  In April, South Korean and U.S. officials said a North Korean submarine successfully launched a ballistic missile that traveled some 18 miles — a major step forward.  Technical experts say TV footage appeared to show a solid fuel rocket successfully launching from underwater, essentially the same system used by Western forces to achieve the same goal.  When she testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee in April, the incoming head of the U.S. Northern Command – responsible for defending the mainland United States – delivered a stark warning.  “The North Korean threat is real,” U.S. Air Force General Lori Robinson – previously head of U.S. air forces in the Pacific – told lawmakers. “For now, it’s a medium range but they are trying very hard to be able to hit the homeland.”  It’s impossible to know exactly how much money and expertise the North Koreans are expending. The scale of the effort, however, is seen as large – in many ways, the same level of commitment the United States gave to the Manhattan Project to build the world’s first atomic bomb during World War Two. Pyongyang’s reason is clear: building that kind of credible ability to strike is seen as central to the long-term survival of the Kim dynasty and its ruling party.  Earlier this month, at the first meeting of its ruling party in 36 years, Kim said North Korea was a responsible nuclear weapons state and would never use its weapons – unless it were threatened. That seemed a clear warning to outside powers, particularly Washington, to steer clear of any attempts to destabilize or attack the regime.  Getting a submarine-based deterrent would be a very big deal – and not just because it might allow the North Koreans to move the launch point much closer to the target. Submarines are central to what nuclear weapons states call a “second strike” capability, the ability to launch missiles even in the aftermath of an overwhelming and perhaps surprise preemptive attack.  The United States, Russia, Britain and France all retain what they call a “continuous at sea deterrent,” at least one submarine offshore at all times ready to fight back even if the homeland and all other military forces are completely taken out. Israel is also believed to have the ability to mount nuclear cruise missiles on its Dolphin-class conventional submarines, while China is now moving quickly towards new ballistic missile submarines for its own at sea deterrent.  This technology isn’t new – the United States and Russia developed it in the late 1950s based in part on plans originally developed to hit Nazi German U-boats in the dying days of World War Two. There is no good reason it should not eventually work for North Korea, too.  If and when it does, Pyongyang is likely to try to keep its submarines very close to its coasts—and its home defenses—at first. Still, once the first nuclear-armed submarine exists, Japan and the United States might feel political pressure to destroy it.  That would come with considerable risks. The North is known to have huge volumes of conventional artillery based along the South Korean border, much of it in range of Seoul and its 10 million residents. The risk of those weapons inflicting massive casualties is one of the key factors that has deterred multiple U.S. administrations from considering the kind of preemptive strike on Pyongyang’s weapons programs that the United States has threatened against Iran.  The Korean War – frozen by its 1953 cease-fire but never otherwise resolved – may not be over yet.  politicsNews
commentary how long north korea nuke city it near future north korea regime brink collapse as rumors will palace coups forces sides world militaries border heightened alert the military faces much bigger problem somewhere pacific north korean submarine believed carrying nuclear warheads missiles deliver and nobody knows it sounds like plot hunt red october technothriller but pyongyang technicians continue current pace experts say becoming ever likely one thing certain north korea flowing considerable resources building nuclear capability and clearly making progress even tuesday failed missile test shows still long way go japanese officials said appeared conventional sudan rocket theoretically ability reach japan territory military base gum exploded either shortly left launcher north korea estimated missiles first deployed yet launched successfully what north korean leader kim jong un wants analysts believe simple rocket fire nuclear warhead least regional targets his ultimate ambition however able hit cities west coast likely submarine could hide sea north korea steadily improving rockets also carry conventional explosives decades it detonated first nuclear device experts believe yet build one small enough placed missile having credible ability get missiles sea could take well decade perhaps considerably once happens however strategic game changer at worst cities west coast would deal prospect however remote might struck north korean atomic weapon at least north korea armed nuclear submarines would hugely complicate calculus president handling crisis korean peninsula that course exactly plan the fact pyongyang conducted many tests year experts believe suggests kim pushing scientists harder ever deliver working rockets warheads north korea believed tagged expertise russian cold scientists capabilities fronts lag well behind established nuclear states russia china already believed well ahead iran in april south korean officials said north korean submarine successfully launched ballistic missile traveled miles major step forward technical experts say tv footage appeared show solid fuel rocket successfully launching underwater essentially system used western forces achieve goal when testified senate armed services committee april incoming head northern command responsible defending mainland united states delivered stark warning the north korean threat real air force general lord robinson previously head air forces pacific told lawmakers for medium range trying hard able hit it impossible know exactly much money expertise north korean expanding the scale effort however seen large many ways level commitment united states gave manhattan project build world first atomic bomb world war two pyongyang reason clear building kind credible ability strike seen central survival kim dynasty ruling party earlier month first meeting ruling party years kim said north korea responsible nuclear weapons state would never use weapons unless threatened that seemed clear warning outside powers particularly washington steer clear attempts stabilize attack regime getting deterrent would big deal might allow north korean move launch point much closer target submarines central nuclear weapons states call second strike capability ability launch missiles even aftermath overwhelming perhaps surprise preemptive attack the united states russia britain france retain call continuous sea deterrent least one submarine offshore times ready fight back even homeland military forces completely taken israel also believed ability mount nuclear cruise missiles conventional submarines china moving quickly towards new ballistic missile submarines sea deterrent this technology new united states russia developed late based part plans originally developed hit nazi german dying days world war two there good reason eventually work north korea if pyongyang likely try keep submarines close home first still first submarine exists japan united states might feel political pressure destroy that would come considerable risks the north known huge volumes conventional artillery based along south korean border much range seoul million residents the risk weapons inflicting massive casualties one key factors deferred multiple administrations considering kind preemptive strike pyongyang weapons programs united states threatened iran the korean war frozen never otherwise resolved may yet politicsnews
Your task is to classify the provided input as real or fake news. Label 0 is meant for fake news, Label 1 is for real news. TEXT: Commentary: How long before North Korea can nuke a U.S. city?It’s the near future, and North Korea’s regime is on the brink of collapse. As rumors swirl of palace coups, forces on both sides of the world’s most militarized border are on heightened alert. The U.S. military faces a much bigger problem. Somewhere in the Pacific, a North Korean submarine is believed to be carrying nuclear warheads and the missiles to deliver them. And nobody knows where it is.  It sounds like the plot of a “Hunt for Red October”-style technothriller. But if Pyongyang’s technicians continue at their current pace, experts say it is becoming ever more likely.  One thing is certain: North Korea is plowing considerable resources into building its nuclear capability. And it is clearly making progress – even if Tuesday’s failed missile test shows it still has a long way to go.  Japanese officials said what appeared to be a conventional Musudan rocket, which theoretically has the ability to reach Japan and the U.S. territory and military base of Guam, exploded either as or shortly after it left its launcher. North Korea is estimated to have some 20 to 30 of the missiles – first deployed in 2007, but yet to be launched successfully.  What North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wants, most analysts believe, is simple – a rocket that can fire a nuclear warhead at least to regional targets. His ultimate ambition, however, is to be able to hit U.S. cities on the West Coast, most likely from a submarine that could hide itself at sea.  North Korea has been steadily improving its rockets – which can also carry conventional explosives – for decades. It detonated its first nuclear device in 2006 but most experts believe it has yet to build one small enough to be placed on a missile. Having the credible ability to do all of that and get the missiles to sea could take well over a decade, perhaps considerably more.  Once it happens, however, it will be a strategic game changer. At worst, U.S. cities on the West Coast would have to deal with the prospect, however remote, that they might be struck by a North Korean atomic weapon. At the very least, a North Korea armed with nuclear submarines would hugely complicate the calculus for any U.S. president handling a crisis on the Korean peninsula itself.  That, of course, is exactly the plan.  The fact that Pyongyang has conducted so many tests this year, some experts believe, suggests Kim is pushing his scientists harder than ever to deliver working rockets and warheads. North Korea is believed to have tagged the expertise of Russian Cold War-era scientists, and while its capabilities on both fronts lag well behind established nuclear states such as Russia and China, it is already believed to be well ahead of Iran.  In April, South Korean and U.S. officials said a North Korean submarine successfully launched a ballistic missile that traveled some 18 miles — a major step forward.  Technical experts say TV footage appeared to show a solid fuel rocket successfully launching from underwater, essentially the same system used by Western forces to achieve the same goal.  When she testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee in April, the incoming head of the U.S. Northern Command – responsible for defending the mainland United States – delivered a stark warning.  “The North Korean threat is real,” U.S. Air Force General Lori Robinson – previously head of U.S. air forces in the Pacific – told lawmakers. “For now, it’s a medium range but they are trying very hard to be able to hit the homeland.”  It’s impossible to know exactly how much money and expertise the North Koreans are expending. The scale of the effort, however, is seen as large – in many ways, the same level of commitment the United States gave to the Manhattan Project to build the world’s first atomic bomb during World War Two. Pyongyang’s reason is clear: building that kind of credible ability to strike is seen as central to the long-term survival of the Kim dynasty and its ruling party.  Earlier this month, at the first meeting of its ruling party in 36 years, Kim said North Korea was a responsible nuclear weapons state and would never use its weapons – unless it were threatened. That seemed a clear warning to outside powers, particularly Washington, to steer clear of any attempts to destabilize or attack the regime.  Getting a submarine-based deterrent would be a very big deal – and not just because it might allow the North Koreans to move the launch point much closer to the target. Submarines are central to what nuclear weapons states call a “second strike” capability, the ability to launch missiles even in the aftermath of an overwhelming and perhaps surprise preemptive attack.  The United States, Russia, Britain and France all retain what they call a “continuous at sea deterrent,” at least one submarine offshore at all times ready to fight back even if the homeland and all other military forces are completely taken out. Israel is also believed to have the ability to mount nuclear cruise missiles on its Dolphin-class conventional submarines, while China is now moving quickly towards new ballistic missile submarines for its own at sea deterrent.  This technology isn’t new – the United States and Russia developed it in the late 1950s based in part on plans originally developed to hit Nazi German U-boats in the dying days of World War Two. There is no good reason it should not eventually work for North Korea, too.  If and when it does, Pyongyang is likely to try to keep its submarines very close to its coasts—and its home defenses—at first. Still, once the first nuclear-armed submarine exists, Japan and the United States might feel political pressure to destroy it.  That would come with considerable risks. The North is known to have huge volumes of conventional artillery based along the South Korean border, much of it in range of Seoul and its 10 million residents. The risk of those weapons inflicting massive casualties is one of the key factors that has deterred multiple U.S. administrations from considering the kind of preemptive strike on Pyongyang’s weapons programs that the United States has threatened against Iran.  The Korean War – frozen by its 1953 cease-fire but never otherwise resolved – may not be over yet.  politicsNews
Your task is to classify the provided input as real or fake news. Label 0 is meant for fake news, Label 1 is for real news. TEXT: commentary how long north korea nuke city it near future north korea regime brink collapse as rumors will palace coups forces sides world militaries border heightened alert the military faces much bigger problem somewhere pacific north korean submarine believed carrying nuclear warheads missiles deliver and nobody knows it sounds like plot hunt red october technothriller but pyongyang technicians continue current pace experts say becoming ever likely one thing certain north korea flowing considerable resources building nuclear capability and clearly making progress even tuesday failed missile test shows still long way go japanese officials said appeared conventional sudan rocket theoretically ability reach japan territory military base gum exploded either shortly left launcher north korea estimated missiles first deployed yet launched successfully what north korean leader kim jong un wants analysts believe simple rocket fire nuclear warhead least regional targets his ultimate ambition however able hit cities west coast likely submarine could hide sea north korea steadily improving rockets also carry conventional explosives decades it detonated first nuclear device experts believe yet build one small enough placed missile having credible ability get missiles sea could take well decade perhaps considerably once happens however strategic game changer at worst cities west coast would deal prospect however remote might struck north korean atomic weapon at least north korea armed nuclear submarines would hugely complicate calculus president handling crisis korean peninsula that course exactly plan the fact pyongyang conducted many tests year experts believe suggests kim pushing scientists harder ever deliver working rockets warheads north korea believed tagged expertise russian cold scientists capabilities fronts lag well behind established nuclear states russia china already believed well ahead iran in april south korean officials said north korean submarine successfully launched ballistic missile traveled miles major step forward technical experts say tv footage appeared show solid fuel rocket successfully launching underwater essentially system used western forces achieve goal when testified senate armed services committee april incoming head northern command responsible defending mainland united states delivered stark warning the north korean threat real air force general lord robinson previously head air forces pacific told lawmakers for medium range trying hard able hit it impossible know exactly much money expertise north korean expanding the scale effort however seen large many ways level commitment united states gave manhattan project build world first atomic bomb world war two pyongyang reason clear building kind credible ability strike seen central survival kim dynasty ruling party earlier month first meeting ruling party years kim said north korea responsible nuclear weapons state would never use weapons unless threatened that seemed clear warning outside powers particularly washington steer clear attempts stabilize attack regime getting deterrent would big deal might allow north korean move launch point much closer target submarines central nuclear weapons states call second strike capability ability launch missiles even aftermath overwhelming perhaps surprise preemptive attack the united states russia britain france retain call continuous sea deterrent least one submarine offshore times ready fight back even homeland military forces completely taken israel also believed ability mount nuclear cruise missiles conventional submarines china moving quickly towards new ballistic missile submarines sea deterrent this technology new united states russia developed late based part plans originally developed hit nazi german dying days world war two there good reason eventually work north korea if pyongyang likely try keep submarines close home first still first submarine exists japan united states might feel political pressure destroy that would come considerable risks the north known huge volumes conventional artillery based along south korean border much range seoul million residents the risk weapons inflicting massive casualties one key factors deferred multiple administrations considering kind preemptive strike pyongyang weapons programs united states threatened iran the korean war frozen never otherwise resolved may yet politicsnews