WHY REUTERS IS SAYING With “reasonable confidence” A Republican Will Win The White House In 2016After examining the data Reuters used to make their bold prediction, we noticed they hadn t given any consideration to the high probability that Democrats will likely find a way to give illegal aliens the opportunity to cast their ballots in 2016. Illegal alien voters aside, here is Reuters interesting (and somewhat hopeful) study Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways.Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican will be moving into the White House in 2017.That conclusion is based on the results of a data model we created, and is primarily the result of two factors, both related to the challenges faced by  successor  candidates   candidates from the same party as the incumbent. First, a Republican will win because voters typically shy away from the party currently in power when an incumbent isn t running. In fact, a successor candidate is three times less likely to win. Second, President Barack Obama s approval ratings are too low to suggest a successor candidate will take the White House.Why are we so confident, especially when opinion poll data now gives Hillary Clinton the edge over most Republican opponents? The simple answer is that we re relying on models, not polls.At this point in the election cycle, poll data asking the  horserace  question ( Who will you vote for in November 2016? ) can be very misleading. This far from Election Day, published poll data is off by an average of 8 percentage points compared with the true election outcome. That s an enormous number when we re used to elections where candidates win by two to three points.Time Before Election Average error of polls (compared to final results)One week 1.7%One month 2.7%Two months 3.8%Three months 4.8%Six months 5.8%Nine months 6.9%Twelve months 7.9%Source: Ipsos analysis of 300 polls across 40 markets from 1980 through currentModeling results is a simple concept: look at past data, identify patterns, and use those patterns to make predictions. So we begin by aggregating data from past U.S. presidential elections, but are immediately hampered by the fact that there aren t very many elections to work from   25 if we go back 100 years.So we created a much larger database of elections by looking beyond the United States to hundreds of presidential and parliamentary elections in democratic countries around the world. This exercise gave us far more data to work with: a sample size of more than 450 elections from 35 countries.The most important finding from our model is the power of incumbency: if you already hold the office you seek, you are far more likely than not to retain it. Our model showed that incumbents have a threefold greater chance of beating their opponent. When no incumbent is running, successor candidates (in this case, Democrats) are three times less likely to win.Our model proves the power of presidential approval ratings. It determines that in order for a successor candidate to have better than even chances of winning, the sitting president must have an approval rating of above 55 percent. Because Barack Obama s average approval rating is now at 45 percent, a successor candidate (i.e. Democrat) is unlikely to win.President (Govt) approval rating INCUMBENT probability of victorySUCCESSOR probability of victory40% 55%6%45% 78%14%50% 90%28%55% 96%49%60% 98%71%Source: Ipsos analysis of over 450 elections since 1938Our model works on the basis of probabilities, and is focused at the party level rather than the candidate level. It seeks only to predict the likelihood of a change to the party in power. It has an 85 percent predictive ability, so it s right most   but not all   of the time. Things that could confound the model include rapid changes to Obama s approval rating, or unusually high or low turnout (which can be driven by  wild card  candidates or other factors).In the coming months, Obama s approval ratings may tick up. But they would have to pass the 55 point mark to give the Democrats even odds of keeping the White House. This is extremely unlikely, given the fact that presidential approval typically declines over time, and Obama s ratings are no exception.Some will argue that Hillary Clinton is special; that her chances are significantly better because, given her popularity and status as a  legacy  candidate, she seems more like an incumbent. But if we go along with that hypothesis and run it through our model, at Obama s current approval ratings, Clinton s chances of winning the general election are still less than half.The Democrats have quite a mountain to summit to retain power past 2016.Via: ReutersGovernment News
why reuters is saying with reasonable confidence a republican will win the white house in examining data reuters used make bold prediction noticed given consideration high probability democrats likely find way give illegal aliens opportunity cast ballots illegal alien voters aside reuters interesting somewhat hopeful study elections mysterious events subject whilst unpredictable candidates voters they actually highly predictable set variables influence outcomes familiar say reasonable confidence republican moving white house conclusion based results data model created primarily result two factors related challenges faced successor candidates candidates party incumbent first republican win voters typically shy away party currently power incumbent running in fact successor candidate three times less likely win second president barack obama approval ratings low suggest successor candidate take white confident especially opinion poll data gives hillary clinton edge republican opponents the simple answer relying models point election cycle poll data asking horseraces question who vote november misleading this far election day published poll data average percentage points compared true election outcome that enormous number used elections candidates win two three before election average error polls compared final results one week one month two months three months six months nine months twelve months source pos analysis polls across markets currentmodeling results simple concept look past data identify patterns use patterns make predictions so begin aggregation data past presidential elections immediately hampered fact many elections work go back created much larger database elections looking beyond united states hundreds presidential parliamentary elections democratic countries around world this exercise gave us far data work sample size elections important finding model power incumbency already hold office seek far likely retain our model showed incumbents threshold greater chance beating opponent when incumbent running successor candidates case democrats three times less likely model proves power presidential approval ratings it determines order successor candidate better even chances winning sitting president must approval rating percent because barack obama average approval rating percent successor candidate democrat unlikely govt approval rating incumbent probability victorysuccessor probability source pos analysis elections since model works basis probabilities focused party level rather candidate level it seeks predict likelihood change party power it percent predictive ability right time things could compound model include rapid changes obama approval rating unusually high low turnout driven wild card candidates factors coming months obama approval ratings may tick but would pass point mark give democrats even odds keeping white house this extremely unlikely given fact presidential approval typically declines time obama ratings argue hillary clinton special chances significantly better given popularity status legacy candidate seems like incumbent but go along hypothesis run model obama current approval ratings clinton chances winning general election still less democrats quite mountain summit retain power past reutersgovernment news
Your task is to classify the provided input as real or fake news. Label 0 is meant for fake news, Label 1 is for real news. TEXT: WHY REUTERS IS SAYING With “reasonable confidence” A Republican Will Win The White House In 2016After examining the data Reuters used to make their bold prediction, we noticed they hadn t given any consideration to the high probability that Democrats will likely find a way to give illegal aliens the opportunity to cast their ballots in 2016. Illegal alien voters aside, here is Reuters interesting (and somewhat hopeful) study Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways.Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican will be moving into the White House in 2017.That conclusion is based on the results of a data model we created, and is primarily the result of two factors, both related to the challenges faced by  successor  candidates   candidates from the same party as the incumbent. First, a Republican will win because voters typically shy away from the party currently in power when an incumbent isn t running. In fact, a successor candidate is three times less likely to win. Second, President Barack Obama s approval ratings are too low to suggest a successor candidate will take the White House.Why are we so confident, especially when opinion poll data now gives Hillary Clinton the edge over most Republican opponents? The simple answer is that we re relying on models, not polls.At this point in the election cycle, poll data asking the  horserace  question ( Who will you vote for in November 2016? ) can be very misleading. This far from Election Day, published poll data is off by an average of 8 percentage points compared with the true election outcome. That s an enormous number when we re used to elections where candidates win by two to three points.Time Before Election Average error of polls (compared to final results)One week 1.7%One month 2.7%Two months 3.8%Three months 4.8%Six months 5.8%Nine months 6.9%Twelve months 7.9%Source: Ipsos analysis of 300 polls across 40 markets from 1980 through currentModeling results is a simple concept: look at past data, identify patterns, and use those patterns to make predictions. So we begin by aggregating data from past U.S. presidential elections, but are immediately hampered by the fact that there aren t very many elections to work from   25 if we go back 100 years.So we created a much larger database of elections by looking beyond the United States to hundreds of presidential and parliamentary elections in democratic countries around the world. This exercise gave us far more data to work with: a sample size of more than 450 elections from 35 countries.The most important finding from our model is the power of incumbency: if you already hold the office you seek, you are far more likely than not to retain it. Our model showed that incumbents have a threefold greater chance of beating their opponent. When no incumbent is running, successor candidates (in this case, Democrats) are three times less likely to win.Our model proves the power of presidential approval ratings. It determines that in order for a successor candidate to have better than even chances of winning, the sitting president must have an approval rating of above 55 percent. Because Barack Obama s average approval rating is now at 45 percent, a successor candidate (i.e. Democrat) is unlikely to win.President (Govt) approval rating INCUMBENT probability of victorySUCCESSOR probability of victory40% 55%6%45% 78%14%50% 90%28%55% 96%49%60% 98%71%Source: Ipsos analysis of over 450 elections since 1938Our model works on the basis of probabilities, and is focused at the party level rather than the candidate level. It seeks only to predict the likelihood of a change to the party in power. It has an 85 percent predictive ability, so it s right most   but not all   of the time. Things that could confound the model include rapid changes to Obama s approval rating, or unusually high or low turnout (which can be driven by  wild card  candidates or other factors).In the coming months, Obama s approval ratings may tick up. But they would have to pass the 55 point mark to give the Democrats even odds of keeping the White House. This is extremely unlikely, given the fact that presidential approval typically declines over time, and Obama s ratings are no exception.Some will argue that Hillary Clinton is special; that her chances are significantly better because, given her popularity and status as a  legacy  candidate, she seems more like an incumbent. But if we go along with that hypothesis and run it through our model, at Obama s current approval ratings, Clinton s chances of winning the general election are still less than half.The Democrats have quite a mountain to summit to retain power past 2016.Via: ReutersGovernment News
Your task is to classify the provided input as real or fake news. Label 0 is meant for fake news, Label 1 is for real news. TEXT: why reuters is saying with reasonable confidence a republican will win the white house in examining data reuters used make bold prediction noticed given consideration high probability democrats likely find way give illegal aliens opportunity cast ballots illegal alien voters aside reuters interesting somewhat hopeful study elections mysterious events subject whilst unpredictable candidates voters they actually highly predictable set variables influence outcomes familiar say reasonable confidence republican moving white house conclusion based results data model created primarily result two factors related challenges faced successor candidates candidates party incumbent first republican win voters typically shy away party currently power incumbent running in fact successor candidate three times less likely win second president barack obama approval ratings low suggest successor candidate take white confident especially opinion poll data gives hillary clinton edge republican opponents the simple answer relying models point election cycle poll data asking horseraces question who vote november misleading this far election day published poll data average percentage points compared true election outcome that enormous number used elections candidates win two three before election average error polls compared final results one week one month two months three months six months nine months twelve months source pos analysis polls across markets currentmodeling results simple concept look past data identify patterns use patterns make predictions so begin aggregation data past presidential elections immediately hampered fact many elections work go back created much larger database elections looking beyond united states hundreds presidential parliamentary elections democratic countries around world this exercise gave us far data work sample size elections important finding model power incumbency already hold office seek far likely retain our model showed incumbents threshold greater chance beating opponent when incumbent running successor candidates case democrats three times less likely model proves power presidential approval ratings it determines order successor candidate better even chances winning sitting president must approval rating percent because barack obama average approval rating percent successor candidate democrat unlikely govt approval rating incumbent probability victorysuccessor probability source pos analysis elections since model works basis probabilities focused party level rather candidate level it seeks predict likelihood change party power it percent predictive ability right time things could compound model include rapid changes obama approval rating unusually high low turnout driven wild card candidates factors coming months obama approval ratings may tick but would pass point mark give democrats even odds keeping white house this extremely unlikely given fact presidential approval typically declines time obama ratings argue hillary clinton special chances significantly better given popularity status legacy candidate seems like incumbent but go along hypothesis run model obama current approval ratings clinton chances winning general election still less democrats quite mountain summit retain power past reutersgovernment news