Betting on the U.S. election via the 'Trump ETF'NEW YORK (Reuters) - An exchange-traded fund focused on Mexico has become a weather vane for Republican Donald Trump’s chances winning the U.S. presidential election in November, investors said. Mexico has been a prime target for Trump, who has accused the country of taking away jobs from Americans, focusing particular ire on a landmark 1990s trade agreement with the United States’ southern neighbor and Canada. He has said he will renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, commonly known as NAFTA, or pull out of it, and build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border to curb illegal immigration. Although a range of factors influence all markets, investors said this week that the U.S.-listed iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (EWW) is increasingly being driven by the prospect of the New York businessman’s election. It has been a good year for equity investors in emerging markets in general after three years of negative returns. But the $1 billion ETF has underperformed and is now in negative territory for the year as the peso has fallen and Trump’s chances of winning the Nov. 8 election have gone up - though predictive models such as FiveThirtyEight and betting markets still forecast a Clinton victory. Short interest in the ETF - essentially bets that it will fall in price - have risen 59 percent since last month as Trump gained steam, according to financial analytics firm S3 Partners LLC. Trump’s worst relative showing in the past few months was Aug. 9, when a closely watched opinion polling average showed him nearly 8 percentage points behind Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. Her lead has tightened to about 3 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average, although it is off lows of less than 1 point earlier this month. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday gave Clinton a 5-point lead over Trump, with 43 percent of likely voters. “Shorting the EWW ETF may be a vehicle to bet on Mr. Trump’s success in being elected the next president of the U.S. and his willingness to address the long-standing Mexican trade imbalance,” Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3 Partners’ head of research, said in an email interview. “In other words, as Trump’s popularity rises, the chances of a negative impact on the Mexican economy rises.” But it is not just shorts. The fund’s price has also tended to suffer when polling averages and betting markets forecast Trump doing better. By contrast, the fund has tended to rise with Clinton’s prospects, according to a Reuters analysis of market data, the polling averages and PredictIt prediction market data over the last quarter. The ETF saw a mild rebound this week after Clinton was seen by most as besting Trump in their first presidential debate on Monday. Much of the negative performance has been driven by the decline of the peso since last month, which hurt returns for U.S. dollar investors even when Mexican stocks hold their value. “There’s no reason for the peso to go from 18.20 to 19.50 (per dollar) unless it’s because Trump has gone from being behind to being dead even with Hillary,” David Garff, president of Accuvest Global Advisors, which sold its last share of the fund in May, said in a phone interview. Mexico’s central bank chief Agustin Carstens said on Friday that “it was a reality” that there was a correlation between his country’s weakening currency and the Trump campaign.  “I can’t deny there’s a knee-jerk reaction by the peso when it was perceived (Trump) did badly in the debate,” said Win Thin, global head of emerging market currency strategy at financial services firm Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, “but the peso’s been weakening for several years even before Trump became the nominee.” “The media has been playing this up a bit, but Mexico’s already suffering from low oil prices, sluggish growth,” he said. “The peso is often used as a proxy for the wider emerging markets, so there’s all these other factors that to me are more important to determining the peso exchange rather than Trump.” Even if the peso’s decline has already come to an end, Accuvest’s Garff said Mexican stocks held by the ETF could still be in for pain under a Trump presidency. Four-fifths of Mexico’s exports go to the United States, and Garff said Mexican manufacturers could suffer if the United States forces its NAFTA partners to renegotiate the treaty. Central bank chief Carstens, speaking on local radio, said a Trump victory would hit his country like a hurricane, adding that the scenario for Mexico was better with a Clinton win.  “If Trump does try to blow up NAFTA, it will hurt Mexico. No question,” said Garff, the investor. “It is a double whammy.” politicsNews
betting election via york reuters an fund focused mexico become weather vane republican donald trump chances winning presidential election november investors said mexico prime target trump accused country taking away jobs americans focusing particular ire landmark trade agreement united states southern neighbor canada he said negotiate north american free trade agreement commonly known bafta pull build wall along border curb illegal immigration although range factors influence markets investors said week shares sci mexico capped et www increasingly driven prospect new york businessman election it good year equity investors emerging markets general three years negative returns but billion et underperformed negative territory year peso fallen trump chances winning election gone though predictive models fivethirtyeight betting markets still forecast clinton victory short interest et essentially bets fall price risen percent since last month trump gained steam according financial analytics firm partners llc trump worst relative showing past months closely watched opinion polling average showed nearly percentage points behind democratic rival hillary clinton her lead tightened points according realclearpolitics average although lows less point earlier month the latest poll released friday gave clinton lead trump percent likely voters sorting www et may vehicle bet trump success elected next president willingness address mexican trade imbalance ihr dusaniwsky partners head research said email interview in words trump popularity rises chances negative impact mexican economy but shorts the fund price also tended suffer polling averages betting markets forecast trump better by contrast fund tended rise clinton prospects according reuters analysis market data polling averages predicted prediction market data last quarter the et saw mild rebound week clinton seen testing trump first presidential debate monday much negative performance driven decline peso since last month hurt returns dollar investors even mexican stocks hold value there reason peso go per dollar unless trump gone behind dead even hillary david garde president accuses global advisors sold last share fund may said phone interview mexico central bank chief austin castes said friday reality correlation country weakening currency trump campaign i deny reaction peso perceived trump badly debate said win thin global head emerging market currency strategy financial services firm brown brothers harrison new york peso weakening several years even trump became the media playing bit mexico already suffering low oil prices sluggish growth said the peso often used proxy wider emerging markets factors important determining peso exchange rather even peso decline already come end accuses garde said mexican stocks held et could still pain trump presidency mexico exports go united states garde said mexican manufacturers could suffer united states forces bafta partners negotiate treaty central bank chief castes speaking local radio said trump victory would hit country like hurricane adding scenario mexico better clinton win if trump try blow bafta hurt mexico no question said garde investor it double politicsnews
Your task is to classify the provided input as real or fake news. Label 0 is meant for fake news, Label 1 is for real news. TEXT: Betting on the U.S. election via the 'Trump ETF'NEW YORK (Reuters) - An exchange-traded fund focused on Mexico has become a weather vane for Republican Donald Trump’s chances winning the U.S. presidential election in November, investors said. Mexico has been a prime target for Trump, who has accused the country of taking away jobs from Americans, focusing particular ire on a landmark 1990s trade agreement with the United States’ southern neighbor and Canada. He has said he will renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, commonly known as NAFTA, or pull out of it, and build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border to curb illegal immigration. Although a range of factors influence all markets, investors said this week that the U.S.-listed iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (EWW) is increasingly being driven by the prospect of the New York businessman’s election. It has been a good year for equity investors in emerging markets in general after three years of negative returns. But the $1 billion ETF has underperformed and is now in negative territory for the year as the peso has fallen and Trump’s chances of winning the Nov. 8 election have gone up - though predictive models such as FiveThirtyEight and betting markets still forecast a Clinton victory. Short interest in the ETF - essentially bets that it will fall in price - have risen 59 percent since last month as Trump gained steam, according to financial analytics firm S3 Partners LLC. Trump’s worst relative showing in the past few months was Aug. 9, when a closely watched opinion polling average showed him nearly 8 percentage points behind Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. Her lead has tightened to about 3 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average, although it is off lows of less than 1 point earlier this month. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday gave Clinton a 5-point lead over Trump, with 43 percent of likely voters. “Shorting the EWW ETF may be a vehicle to bet on Mr. Trump’s success in being elected the next president of the U.S. and his willingness to address the long-standing Mexican trade imbalance,” Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3 Partners’ head of research, said in an email interview. “In other words, as Trump’s popularity rises, the chances of a negative impact on the Mexican economy rises.” But it is not just shorts. The fund’s price has also tended to suffer when polling averages and betting markets forecast Trump doing better. By contrast, the fund has tended to rise with Clinton’s prospects, according to a Reuters analysis of market data, the polling averages and PredictIt prediction market data over the last quarter. The ETF saw a mild rebound this week after Clinton was seen by most as besting Trump in their first presidential debate on Monday. Much of the negative performance has been driven by the decline of the peso since last month, which hurt returns for U.S. dollar investors even when Mexican stocks hold their value. “There’s no reason for the peso to go from 18.20 to 19.50 (per dollar) unless it’s because Trump has gone from being behind to being dead even with Hillary,” David Garff, president of Accuvest Global Advisors, which sold its last share of the fund in May, said in a phone interview. Mexico’s central bank chief Agustin Carstens said on Friday that “it was a reality” that there was a correlation between his country’s weakening currency and the Trump campaign.  “I can’t deny there’s a knee-jerk reaction by the peso when it was perceived (Trump) did badly in the debate,” said Win Thin, global head of emerging market currency strategy at financial services firm Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, “but the peso’s been weakening for several years even before Trump became the nominee.” “The media has been playing this up a bit, but Mexico’s already suffering from low oil prices, sluggish growth,” he said. “The peso is often used as a proxy for the wider emerging markets, so there’s all these other factors that to me are more important to determining the peso exchange rather than Trump.” Even if the peso’s decline has already come to an end, Accuvest’s Garff said Mexican stocks held by the ETF could still be in for pain under a Trump presidency. Four-fifths of Mexico’s exports go to the United States, and Garff said Mexican manufacturers could suffer if the United States forces its NAFTA partners to renegotiate the treaty. Central bank chief Carstens, speaking on local radio, said a Trump victory would hit his country like a hurricane, adding that the scenario for Mexico was better with a Clinton win.  “If Trump does try to blow up NAFTA, it will hurt Mexico. No question,” said Garff, the investor. “It is a double whammy.” politicsNews
Your task is to classify the provided input as real or fake news. Label 0 is meant for fake news, Label 1 is for real news. TEXT: betting election via york reuters an fund focused mexico become weather vane republican donald trump chances winning presidential election november investors said mexico prime target trump accused country taking away jobs americans focusing particular ire landmark trade agreement united states southern neighbor canada he said negotiate north american free trade agreement commonly known bafta pull build wall along border curb illegal immigration although range factors influence markets investors said week shares sci mexico capped et www increasingly driven prospect new york businessman election it good year equity investors emerging markets general three years negative returns but billion et underperformed negative territory year peso fallen trump chances winning election gone though predictive models fivethirtyeight betting markets still forecast clinton victory short interest et essentially bets fall price risen percent since last month trump gained steam according financial analytics firm partners llc trump worst relative showing past months closely watched opinion polling average showed nearly percentage points behind democratic rival hillary clinton her lead tightened points according realclearpolitics average although lows less point earlier month the latest poll released friday gave clinton lead trump percent likely voters sorting www et may vehicle bet trump success elected next president willingness address mexican trade imbalance ihr dusaniwsky partners head research said email interview in words trump popularity rises chances negative impact mexican economy but shorts the fund price also tended suffer polling averages betting markets forecast trump better by contrast fund tended rise clinton prospects according reuters analysis market data polling averages predicted prediction market data last quarter the et saw mild rebound week clinton seen testing trump first presidential debate monday much negative performance driven decline peso since last month hurt returns dollar investors even mexican stocks hold value there reason peso go per dollar unless trump gone behind dead even hillary david garde president accuses global advisors sold last share fund may said phone interview mexico central bank chief austin castes said friday reality correlation country weakening currency trump campaign i deny reaction peso perceived trump badly debate said win thin global head emerging market currency strategy financial services firm brown brothers harrison new york peso weakening several years even trump became the media playing bit mexico already suffering low oil prices sluggish growth said the peso often used proxy wider emerging markets factors important determining peso exchange rather even peso decline already come end accuses garde said mexican stocks held et could still pain trump presidency mexico exports go united states garde said mexican manufacturers could suffer united states forces bafta partners negotiate treaty central bank chief castes speaking local radio said trump victory would hit country like hurricane adding scenario mexico better clinton win if trump try blow bafta hurt mexico no question said garde investor it double politicsnews