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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. A seismic hazard is the probability that an earthquake will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold.
Earthquake ground shaking varies from place to place and the hazard mapping in this project will show this variability. The mapped hazard refers to an estimate of the probability of exceeding a certain amount of ground shaking, or ground motion, in 50 years.e demonstrate how to get the probability that a ground motion is exceeded for an individual earthquake-the âprobability of exceedanceâ. How to get the expected number of exceedances in 1 year owing to that earthquake. Expected number of exceedances for several earthquakes.