Superflare
Since superflares can occur on stars apparently equivalent in every way to the Sun, it is natural to ask if they can occur on the Sun itself. An estimate based on the original Kepler photometric studies suggested a frequency on solar-type stars (early G-type and rotation period more than 10 days) of once every 800 years for an energy of 10 erg and every 5000 years at 10 erg. One-minute sampling provided statistics for less energetic flares and gave a frequency of one flare of energy 10 erg every 5–600 years for a star rotating as slowly as the Sun; this would be rated as X100 on the solar flare scale. This is based on a straightforward comparison of the number of stars studied with the number of flares observed. An extrapolation of the empirical statistics for solar flares to an energy of 10 erg suggests a frequency of one in 10,000 years.
Superflare
However, this does not match the known properties of superflare stars. Such stars are extremely rare in the Kepler data; one study showed only 279 such stars in 31,457 studied, a proportion below 1%; for older stars this fell to 0.25%. Also, about half of the stars which were active showed repeating flares: one had as many as 57 events in 500 days. Concentrating on solar-type stars, the most active averaged one flare every 100 days; the frequency of superﬂare occurrence in the most active Sun-like stars is 1000 times larger than that of the general average for such stars. This suggests that such behaviour is not present throughout a star's lifetime, but is confined to episodes of extraordinary activity. This is also suggested by the clear relation between the magnetic activity of a star and its superflare activity; in particular, superflare stars are much more active (based on starspot area) than the Sun.