Causes of the Great Depression
In their 1963 book "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960", Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz laid out their case for a different explanation of the Great Depression. Essentially, the Great Depression, in their view, was caused by the fall of the money supply. Friedman and Schwartz write: "From the cyclical peak in August 1929 to a cyclical trough in March 1933, the stock of money fell by over a third." The result was what Friedman and Schwartz called "The Great Contraction" — a period of falling income, prices, and employment caused by the choking effects of a restricted money supply. Friedman and Schwartz argue that people wanted to hold more money than the Federal Reserve was supplying. As a result, people hoarded money by consuming less. This caused a contraction in employment and production since prices were not flexible enough to immediately fall. The Fed's failure was in not realizing what was happening and not taking corrective action. In a speech honoring Friedman and Schwartz, Ben Bernanke stated:
New Deal
Lowell E. Gallaway and Richard K. Vedder argue on the basis of Austrian School of economics theories that the Great Depression was caused by wages being too high which they say had caused a loss of depositor confidence which caused the bank runs. They further conclude that the "Great Depression was very significantly prolonged in both its duration and its magnitude by the impact of New Deal programs". They suggest that without Social Security, work relief, unemployment insurance, mandatory minimum wages and without special government-granted privileges for labor unions, business would have hired more workers and the unemployment rate during the New Deal years would have been 6.7% instead of 17.2%. Amity Shlaes wrote that "from 1929 to 1940, from Hoover to Roosevelt, government intervention helped to make the Depression Great". Shlaes said that the NRA was misguided because it used price setting to fix monetary problems. According to Shlaes, Roosevelt's experimentation frightened business into inaction and prevented recovery. Eric Rauchway showed that Shlaes tried to diminish the economic growth by referring to the unrepresentative Dow Jones Industrial Average. He continued that usually a historian or economist would have referred to the gross domestic product, which according to the Historical Statistics of the United States grew impressively by 9% annually during Roosevelt's first term and by 11% annually after the short recession of 1937–1938.