Superflare
Since superflares can occur on stars apparently equivalent in every way to the Sun, it is natural to ask if they can occur on the Sun itself. An estimate based on the original Kepler photometric studies suggested a frequency on solar-type stars (early G-type and rotation period more than 10 days) of once every 800 years for an energy of 10 erg and every 5000 years at 10 erg. One-minute sampling provided statistics for less energetic flares and gave a frequency of one flare of energy 10 erg every 5–600 years for a star rotating as slowly as the Sun; this would be rated as X100 on the solar flare scale. This is based on a straightforward comparison of the number of stars studied with the number of flares observed. An extrapolation of the empirical statistics for solar flares to an energy of 10 erg suggests a frequency of one in 10,000 years.
Thermosphere
The solar X-ray and extreme ultraviolet radiation (XUV) at wavelengths < 170 nm is almost completely absorbed within the thermosphere. This radiation causes the various ionospheric layers as well as a temperature increase at these heights (Figure 1).
While the solar visible light (380 to 780 nm) is nearly constant with a variability of not more than about 0.1% of the solar constant, the solar XUV radiation is highly variable in time and space. For instance, X-ray bursts associated with solar flares can dramatically increase their intensity over preflare levels by many orders of magnitude over a time span of tens of minutes. In the extreme ultraviolet, the Lyman α line at 121.6 nm represents an important source of ionization and dissociation at ionospheric D layer heights. During quiet periods of solar activity, it alone contains more energy than the rest of the XUV spectrum. Quasi-periodic changes of the order of 100% or greater, with periods of 27 days and 11 years, belong to the prominent variations of solar XUV radiation. However, irregular fluctuations over all time scales are present all the time. During low solar activity, about half of the total energy input into the thermosphere is thought to be solar XUV radiation. Evidently, that solar XUV energy input occurs only during daytime conditions, maximizing at the equator during equinox.