Superflare
Since superflares can occur on stars apparently equivalent in every way to the Sun, it is natural to ask if they can occur on the Sun itself. An estimate based on the original Kepler photometric studies suggested a frequency on solar-type stars (early G-type and rotation period more than 10 days) of once every 800 years for an energy of 10 erg and every 5000 years at 10 erg. One-minute sampling provided statistics for less energetic flares and gave a frequency of one flare of energy 10 erg every 5–600 years for a star rotating as slowly as the Sun; this would be rated as X100 on the solar flare scale. This is based on a straightforward comparison of the number of stars studied with the number of flares observed. An extrapolation of the empirical statistics for solar flares to an energy of 10 erg suggests a frequency of one in 10,000 years.
Barnard's Star
In 1998 a stellar flare on Barnard's Star was detected based on changes in the spectral emissions on 17 July during an unrelated search for variations in the proper motion. Four years passed before the flare was fully analyzed, at which point it was suggested that the flare's temperature was 8000 K, more than twice the normal temperature of the star. Given the essentially random nature of flares, Diane Paulson, one of the authors of that study, noted that "the star would be fantastic for amateurs to observe".
The flare was surprising because intense stellar activity is not expected in stars of such age. Flares are not completely understood, but are believed to be caused by strong magnetic fields, which suppress plasma convection and lead to sudden outbursts: strong magnetic fields occur in rapidly rotating stars, while old stars tend to rotate slowly. For Barnard's Star to undergo an event of such magnitude is thus presumed to be a rarity. Research on the star's periodicity, or changes in stellar activity over a given timescale, also suggest it ought to be quiescent; 1998 research showed weak evidence for periodic variation in the star's brightness, noting only one possible starspot over 130 days.