THE WASHINGTON POST, TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 1983
The Middle East these days presents the spectacle of a bitter struggle among exhausted adversaries. Even the superpowers enter the area limping. So the visits by Israeli and Lebanese leaders to Washington this week offer a chance to reduce exposureÛÓdecommit.</br></br>The original source of weakness is the Lebanese regime of President Amin Gemayel. Gemayel represents a Christian faction based north of Beirut. Its writ runs only to that area and the capital. It is contested by several dissident ethnic groups. Among them are the Shiite Moslems and the Palestinians, who are themselves split into a faction headed by Yasser Arafat and a rebel group that has besieged him in Tripoli.</br></br>Syria occupies part of Lebanon, manipulates the dissidents against the Gemayel government and backs the</br></br>PLO rebels against Arafat. It enjoys both Soviet support and the patronage of the Islamic revolution preached by the Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran. If only to blunt that revolution, the Saudis sustain SyriaÛªs President Hafez Assad financially. Since Iran also ties down SyriaÛªs historic enemy, Iraq, in a war of attrition, Syria looks like a powerhouse.</br></br>But Assad is in uncertain health. He heads a minority regime of Alawite Moslems, which is detested by the Sunni Moslem majority. If his Lebanese proteges cut a deal with Gemayel, they would desert him. He also has difficulties with his Soviet backers.