Some of Wall Street's Favorite Stock Theories Failed to Forsee Market's Slight Rise in 1984
It was a tough year on Wall Street. The Super Bowl theory got beat up pretty badly.</br></br>Ever since football's clash of the titans began in 1967, the Super Bowl theory has boasted a record for clairvoyance unmatched by any technical analyst, Ph.D. economist or money manager with a six-figure income. Every year the National Football Conference team won, the stock market -- as measured by the New York Stock Exchange composite index -- rose. Every year the American Football Conference team won, the market lost ground.</br></br>Last year, however, the AFC's Los Angeles Raiders won, and the New York composite unobligingly rose. The rise was only 1.26%, to be sure, but an indicator's an indicator, after all.</br></br>The Super Bowl theory wasn't the only harebrained indicator of market performance that had a tough year. The B.S. indicator didn't suggest much of anything would happen -- maybe it didn't do so badly after all -- while the hemline index wallowed in confusion. If you followed the index of men's tie widths, you probably got caught in a short squeeze.</br></br>The B.S. indicator, otherwise known as the Boston snow indicator, is the brainchild of David Upshaw, formerly of Drexel Burnham Lambert and now of Waddell & Reed, and Jody Simons, still with Drexel Burnham. It holds that snow on the ground in Beantown on Christmas Day is a bullish indicator.