Tracking the Job, Auto Data Are Scrutinized This Week
NEW YORK -- Jobs and autos -- two weighty statistics -- come under scrutiny this week in an economy that made it through the first quarter on good footing.</br></br>So far, the economy has managed to walk the tightrope between too much growth -- which could ignite serious inflation -- and too little growth -- which could lead to recession. During the first quarter, the economy expanded at a 2.3% annual rate, according to the recent Commerce Department estimate.</br></br>But that balance could tip if, as many expect, the April employment figures due out Friday register another month of big job gains. Estimates on the rise in nonfarm employment range from 175,000 to 350,000.</br></br>Economists expect the civilian unemployment rate to at least have maintained March's 5.6% rate. A strong report would push back fears of recession this year, but increase fears of higher inflation.</br></br>"We're in a fairly safe holding pattern for the time being," says Charles G. Renfro, chief economist at Alphametrics Corp., Bala Cynwyd, Pa. But he adds: "We're going to get the inflationary effects of the weak dollar and we may see some wage increases from the tightening labor market." But Mr. Renfro notes he doesn't expect the rampant sort of inflation seen in the mid-1970s.