Two Views of Coming Economic Growth
WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration may be having its cake and eating it too when it comes to government projections about economic growth.</br></br>As the White House pushes its big tax-cut package, administration and congressional budget analysts predict boom times ahead that would generate giant revenue surpluses.</br></br>But in a recent trustees' study on the solvency of Social Security and Medicare -- programs President Bush has targeted for major retooling -- the administration paints a picture of modest economic growth and flagging worker productivity.</br></br>Some officials say this is largely a consequence of having separate bureaucracies prepare the economic forecasts for the budget and for the big entitlement programs. But the policy-making implications can be dramatic.</br></br>For example, if the Social Security trustees' assumptions are basically correct, the overall budget surplus predicted by the Congressional Budget Office could drop by as much as $1.75 trillion from its current projected $5.6 trillion -- or about the amount Mr. Bush is seeking in his tax-cut package, economists said.