MoneyBeat: Bull Market Is Weary, but Few Signs Point to Exhaustion
The big question on investors' minds now is a simple, if scary, one: Is the stock market topping out?</br></br>After surging 32% last year, including dividends, the S&P 500 index has bogged down in 2014. It closed at a record 1859.45 Friday, but that is up just 0.6% from Dec. 31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 16321.71 Friday, still down 1.5% from Dec. 31.</br></br>Just to be safe, some professional money managers are lightening up on stocks, traders say. But analysts who track investor psychology and trading patterns say it could be too soon to head for the exits.</br></br>Many expect stocks to be volatile and some predict a sharp pullback in 2014. Just not yet. Investors simply aren't acting the way they typically do when stocks are on the brink of serious trouble, these analysts say. "There's nothing that I see here now that says imminent demise," said Phil Roth, a veteran independent analyst who correctly predicted the end of the previous bull market in 2007.</br></br>True, Mr. Roth says, the current bull market has been running for nearly five years and is weary. Based on corporate earnings levels, stocks are probably overpriced. A negative event, such as trouble in the bond market or in the world economy, could send stocks down.