Consumer Confidence Fell in September --- Index Drop of 10.7 Is Largest Since Post-Crash Period; Cause Termed Unclear
NEW YORK -- Consumer confidence fell sharply in September, the largest monthly decline since just after last October's stock-market crash.</br></br>The Conference Board's confidence index dropped 10.7 points to 109 in September, compared with a revised 119.7 in August. The seasonally adjusted index uses 1985 as a base of 100. The September index was down 6.7 points from the year-earlier level of 115.7. In November 1987, a month after the crash, the index dropped 14.3 points to 100.8.</br></br>"It is still too early to say what may have shaken consumer confidence in September," said Fabian Linden, executive director of the board's Consumer Research Center. "Although a single month's reading is inconclusive, the decline in confidence is too large and widespread to be dismissed as merely a technical aberration. The latest economic statistics, showing personal income rising only about half as fast as prices, may well have caused some consumer uneasiness. Still, the present confidence figure remains well above the level that generally signals recession."</br></br>All sections of the country registered downturns in confidence about the present economic scene as well as expectations about the future situation in the Board's September survey, which is conducted by National Family Opinion Inc., Toledo, Ohio. The Conference Board is an industry-supported, nonprofit economic research group.</br></br>"One of the purposes of the consumer confidence survey is that it gives warning signals," Mr. Linden said. "We're getting warning signals." The only positive thing about the latest survey, Mr. Linden said was that the index stood above a recession's "historical trigger level" of about 80. "We're still well above a disaster level."