Three Scenarios: How the Election Will Shape Policy On the Economy --- GOP Would Push Tax Cuts; Democrats, More Spending On Schools, Health Care --- Social Security Is Off the Menu
WASHINGTON -- If Republicans gain control of both houses of Congress in tomorrow's elections, get ready for more tax cuts, a prescription-drug plan for seniors that is favored by the pharmaceutical industry and a renewed push for oil drilling in a pristine Alaskan reserve.</br></br>If Democrats grab the reins on Capitol Hill, look for more spending on education and health care, a higher minimum wage and tax cuts aimed at moderate-income workers.</br></br>This is a rare election in which control of Congress could shift depending on only a dozen races. The outcome could have a huge effect on the economy and business. Republicans now hold a six-vote margin in the House, while Democrats have a one-vote edge in the Senate. A shift in control to one party would allow it to dominate the economic agenda in the next two years and set the terms of debate for the 2004 presidential election.</br></br>Given how few congressional races are still considered toss-ups, Election Day could well produce a continuation of the status quo. That would likely mean the federal deficit would continue to balloon, as lawmakers reach accommodation by approving spending increases and tax cuts dear to both parties.</br></br>Even if one party does win both houses of Congress, and with it the chairmanship of all committees, its narrow margin of control would limit its power. Senate rules allow 40 out of the 100 members to block almost anything in the Senate, and neither party is likely to end up with fewer than 40 seats. But a crisis, such as a severely faltering economy or an Iraqi war that goes badly, could limit partisan bickering and unite Congress behind the president.