Economic View The Earnings Trend and the Stock Market
THE generally weak character of the stock market which prevailed through much of the first quarter of this year con-p tinued into ;</br></br>January low and they were about 6 per cent below "ÛÏÛÏT the all-time high record level of last December.</br></br>A rally in the market set in on Thursday afternoon and dissipated some of the Wall Street gloom which has been getting progressively more dense since the beginning of the year. Much of this gloom can be explained by a dissipation of the unreasonably optimistic anticipations about the .business outlook which appeared to be the majority opinion three months ago, rather than fear that the economy will go into an early recession.</br></br>The majority of nongovernment opinions about the business outlook is probably just about in line with a report released last week by the staff of the Senate-House Internal Revenue Taxation Committee. This reportÛªs vision of the outlook is more conservative than the AdministrationÛªs estimates in the January budget message, 'but it still does not imply any threat of an impending recession.</br></br>IT indicated a Federal Government deficit for fiscal 1963 of $3.8 billion, assuming no change in Government expenditures from the figures shown in the budget message last January', and without allowing for any effects that may result from the pending tax legislation. This deficit figure is in contrast with one-half billion dollars indicated in the budget message.