'83 Deficit May Prove Lower Than Forecast: Lehman Bros. Economist Disputes Treasury Study on
With spending for defense, farm price supports, unemployment benefits and Medicare running lower than expected, the federal budget deficit for fiscal 1983 could turn out to be $200 billion or less, some $10 billion below the Reagan administrationÛªs mid-July estimate.</br></br>Officials at the Congressional Budget Office and a number of private forecasters estimating the lower spending figures for the fiscal year ending next week say a variety of factors are responsible, including lower fuel costs at the Department of Defense and the summer-long drought that has induced many farmers to sell grain and pay off outstanding government loans.</br></br>Outlays probably will turn out to be $800 billion, compared with an administration estimate of $809.8 billion, the sources say. The recent sale by the government of Chrysler Corp. stock warrants netted $311 million, while the Export-Import Bank received an unexpected repayment of $400 million from the Iranian government. That $711 million is shown as receipts that lower outlays.</br></br>Meanwhile, the economic recovery has so far produced no surge in revenues, which are still pegged close to $600 billion.</br></br>At the level of $200 billion, the deficit will still be nearly twice the size of the $110.6 billion gap between spending and receipts in 1982. Forecasts for coming years indicate the red ink will remain in the $200 billion range or higher unless Congress and the president take new steps to cut spending or raise taxes.