'83 Fall Economic Review, Preview: THE 1983 FALL ECONOMIC REVIEW AND ...
As the nationÛªs booming economic recovery of late spring and early summer slows, The Washington Post takes an in-depth look at the economic health and future of the D.C. area, the nation and the world in the 1983 Fall Economic Review and Preview.</br></br>... The booming economic recovery of late spring and early summer, sparked by an unexpected surge in consumer spending, has slowed and forecasters are uncertain exactly what comes next.</br></br>Retail sales declined in July and August as automobile sales continued to fall short of DetroitÛªs hopes. Monthly gains in industrial production are slowing now that sales have flattened, and businesses have begun tq accumulate inventories once more.</br></br>; Housing construction, which began its recovery a year ago, lias hit a plateau, if not a pothole, as a result of higher mortgage interest rates. And a rapidly growing trade deficit is hurting export-oriented industries, as well as those whose products face competition from foreign imports.</br></br>I Slowing is a relative term, however. The spring quarter was extraordinary, with the gross national product, adjusted for inflation, rising at an unsustainable 9.2 percent annual rate. Partly because the level of economic activity at the end of June was considerably higher than the average for the second quarter, forecasts for the current three months generally show at least a 7 percent growth rate, ÐÊ-But at the moment, the economy does not appear to be expanding at such a strong rate. From this point forward, the consensus among forecasters calls for fairly steady but modest economic growth through 1984. Inflation is expected to bounce back to somewhere between 5 and 6.5 percent as unemployment falls to between 8 percent and 8.5 percent by late next year.