Can Economists Be Taken Seriously?
Can political leaders depend on consistent, reliable advice from economists? Probably not, says a distinguished member of the profession, Henry J. Aaron of the Brookings Institution.</br></br>In a thoughtful lecture at their annual meeting, Aaron said that fashions among economists change so quickly that it is "difficult for political leaders to know when to listen to us, even if they are inclined to do so. . . . The intellectual history of our profession and theirs makes it hard for {politicians} to take us quite as seriously as we take ourselves."</br></br>Yet another failing he cited is that many economists tend to ignore political realities, pleading no "special expertise or insight into politics." Wrong attitude, says Aaron. "What the political system can do becomes at least as important a component of policy advice as what it should do."</br></br>On the question of reliability, Aaron pointed not only to the longtime inability of the profession to decide whether monetary or fiscal theory is more effective, but to indecision on the seriousness of the current budget deficit.</br></br>Many economists seem to agree that, under Reagan, the national debt has soared to dangerous heights. But some others do not. The outgoing president of the American Economics Association, Robert Eisner of Northwestern University, debunks the deficit as a big problem. Eisner also argues there is no danger in America's new status as a debtor nation. In fact, "by meaningful measure, the United States is not a debtor nation at all."