The Outlook: A Little-Noted Rise In Barriers to Growth
NEW YORK -- What goes on here?</br></br>Talk persists that a recession is brewing, very possibly arriving within the year. Yet, at the same time, signs mount that the economy is reasonably robust, with brisk gains in employment, capital spending and exports leading the way to new highs in overall business activity.</br></br>The juxtaposition may seem peculiar, to say the least, but there's really nothing very odd about it. Recessions normally do arrive on the heels of relatively robust economic activity, not when business is stagnating. This is because, in a sustained upswing, a burgeoning economy eventually comes up against barriers -- financial as well as physical -- to further growth. A recession perforce ensues.</br></br>How close to such a barrier point is the economy now?</br></br>Closer, perhaps, than is widely recognized.