Taking the Pulse: Confidence Surveys May Help to Predict Shape of the Recovery --- But They Can't Give Timing; Polls Suggest Consumers Fear `Diminished' Future --- What Questions Are Asked
Once every month, James Druckrey, marketing vice president of American Tourister Inc., sits down with top executives of the Warren, R.I., luggage maker to forecast the coming month's business.</br></br>For the past year, the very first item on his agenda has been the Conference Board's latest reading on consumer confidence. Right now, its reading is abysmal.</br></br>So, one would expect to find Mr. Druckrey pessimistic. But he isn't. "We're guardedly optimistic there will be some turnaround in the economy," he says.</br></br>Production planners in businesses around the country are facing the same paradox: Business seems to be turning up, but some closely watched measures of consumer confidence aren't.</br></br>Last week, the Conference Board, a business-research organization based in New York, said its confidence index had fallen to the lowest level since the bleak, oil-shock days of December 1974. In short order, stock prices sank; Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan pronounced the report "very disturbing"; USA Today and the Washington Post put the bad news at the top of their front pages, and CBS made it the lead story on its evening news.