New Jobless Claims Increase by 39,000; Report Is Latest Sign of Troubled Recovery
In another sign that all is not well with the economic recovery, new claims for unemployment benefits shot up to 493,000 in the week ended Nov. 9, not far below the peak level recorded early this year during the recession, the Labor Department said yesterday.</br></br>New claims rose 39,000 from the previous week, pushing the average for the latest four weeks to 443,500, up significantly from the level of just over 400,000 in July. Analysts discounted part of the latest rise, which was affected by construction layoffs in some states hit by unusually early winter storms, but the numbers nevertheless were a sign of worsening labor markets, they said.</br></br>Most private forecasters, however, still do not expect the U.S. economy to drop into recession again. The National Association of Business Economists (NABE) said yesterday its quarterly survey of members' forecasts showed that they expect the economy to grow at a 2 percent annual rate this quarter and 3 percent in 1991.</br></br>Only about 10 percent of the 45 economists polled predicted that the economy would resume the outright decline that began late in the summer of 1990 and lasted, many forecasters believe, until March or April of this year. The gross national product rose at a 2.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter of this year after adjustment for inflation.</br></br>The NABE said a high level of consumer debt was the principal reason the recovery might be slow by past standards. Civilian unemployment, 6.8 percent last month, will drop only to 6.5 percent next year, according to the average of the 45 forecasts.