Second Best Year Ahead, Fortune Says
NEW YORK. Dec. 28 (IP).ÛÓProduction will decrease and unemployment will increase in 1954, but it still probably will be the second best business year in the NationÛªs history. Fortune magazine predicted today in its annual New YearÛªs economic forecast.</br></br>ÛÏIt* is not news that production will decline a little this year, but it is news that 1954 will probably be the second-best business year yet,Û the magazine said.</br></br>ÛÏFortuneÛªs forecast is for a steady, mild decline in production over the next 12 months. If the decline should speed up it will do so only temporarily; no serious recession is in sight.Û</br></br>The magazine predicted that the gross national product will fall 3 percent and industrial output will drop 6 percent in 1954, with production averaging about the same as 1952 and about 20 percent higher than before the Korean war broke out in 1950.</br></br>It said there would be less demand for defense material, mainly for the NationÛªs ground forces, and less demand for consumer durable goods, especially automobiles. The spending rate for defense will drop about five billion dollars during the year and the Government will have a cash deficit for the 1954-55 fiscal year of about four billion dollars, it said.