U.S. Plans to End 'Flash' Estimate Of GNP's Growth
WASHINGTON -- The government plans to discontinue its early "flash" estimate of quarterly economic growth, Commerce Secretary Malcolm Baldrige said today.</br></br>The report, which is published by the Commerce Department in the last month of each quarter, is based on scant data and is often subject to large revisions. But the figure, an estimate of the quarter's growth in the gross national product, the value of the nation's total output, is watched closely in financial markets and can sometimes trigger large movements in stock prices and interest rates.</br></br>"The flash is an educated guess at best," said Mr. Baldrige. But he said, "in financial circles it is still considered an actual statistic in spite of Commerce's cautions issued along with the quarterly release of the figure."</br></br>Mr. Baldrige said the move would also save the department money. Commerce Department officials said the savings wouldn't be large, because the flash figure is compiled by the same staff that does the regular GNP numbers.</br></br>The department's chief economist, Robert Ortner, said the decision to stop compiling the statistic wasn't a result of the new budget-cutting law. "This decision would have been made with or without Gramm-Rudman," he said.