Better Year Predicted For Industries: Commerce Sees Most Industry Better This Year
I The Commerce Department predicted yesterday that 23 of 29 major j industries it surveyed will do better J this year than in 1982 as the econ-i omy moves from recession to recovery.</br></br>But department experts said even some of the industries that are recovering still will be in depressed states in 1983, and several important ! industries like steel and automobiles | are likely never again to attain the | production and employment levels { they achieved in the late 1970s. i The Reagan administrationÛªs pay-! ment-in-kind programÛÓdesigned to ! restrain farm production to reduce | crop surpluses and raise farm pro-j duce pricesÛÓwill ensure a continued i recession among producers of agri-i cultural chemicals and farm equip-I ment, the department predicted. De-| pressed oil prices will prevent any J recovery in the oil field equipment, j industry.</br></br>j The commercial construction, con-! truction machinery and machine tool ! industries will fare worse in 198:5 j than they did last year, according to I department forecasters.</br></br>John E. Cremeans, director of the Office of Research and Statistics at tfie Commerce DepartmentÛªs Bureau of Industrial Economics, said the recovery so far ÛÏis following classic lines,Û with autos and housing leading the way and industries that depend heavily upon themÛÓsuch as lumber, steel, appliances, plastics a&d furnitureÛÓbeing pulled out of t$e economic doldrums as well, j* Last December, when the department made its initial industry performance forecast for 1983, it said it expected 1983 gross national prod-qetÛÓ the total output of the economyÛÓto be 3.7 percent higher than in 1$82.</br></br>| Yesterday, Cremeans told reporters that he anticipates economic growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent this year, attributing the lowered estimate to a delay in the s^art of the recovery.