Political Debate Over Jobs Intensifies; Bush Team Hopes for Lift From Friday Payroll Data; Revisions to Get Attention
The jobs debate heats up this week, with the White House expecting that revised payroll data to be released Friday will put a shine on President Bush's record of helping the economy create new jobs.</br></br>Friday's data will be the last released before the Nov. 2 election. While markets will focus on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' jobs report for September, politicians might pay more attention to revised data for the period from March 2003 through March 2004.</br></br>A memo from the president's Council of Economic Advisers estimates that the payroll-employment figure for that period could be revised upward by 288,000 jobs, and conceivably by as much as 384,000. In August, nonfarm payroll employment stood 913,000 jobs, or 0.8%, below the level when President Bush took office.</br></br>Even a lesser revision, combined with additional jobs reported for July through September, would reduce Mr. Bush's first-term jobs deficit and weaken challenger Sen. John Kerry's attacks on his economic policies. The two meet for a town-hall style debate Friday evening in St. Louis, and are scheduled to debate domestic policy the following Wednesday.</br></br>The White House estimate, prepared by career CEA technical staff, hasn't any effect on what the independent BLS actually will report Friday. "This is a very preliminary estimate," said CEA spokesman Phillip Swagel, adding it was generated by an economic model with a typical statistical error range of plus or minus 140,000 jobs. "The only number that matters is the number that the BLS announces on Friday." The BLS will incorporate its revisions in the official data in February.