Recession's End Seen in Spring: CEA Sees Recession Ending in Spring
The presidentÛªs Council of Economic Advisers told Congress yesterday it expects a surge in consumer buying, housing construction and defense spending to boost the economy out of recession this spring.</br></br>The CEA, in its annual report, said ÛÏ1982 and 1983 should become the first of several years of prosperous growth and declining inflation occurring simultaneously.Û But that will happen only if the Federal Reserve continues to restrain money growth and the public lowers its expectations of future inflation so that interest rates come down, the council said.</br></br>CEA Chairman Murray L. Wei-denbaum said the FedÛªs money growth target for 1982 is consistent with the administrationÛªs forecast.</br></br>ÛÏThe principal areas that are anticipated to lead the expansion next year are business investment, inventories . . . and a further acceleration in defense deliveries,Û the council said.</br></br>Unemployment, which was 8.8 percent in December and 8.5 percent last month, "is expected to reach the vicinity of 9 percent this springÛ and begin falling by between one-quarter and one-half of a percentage point each three months thereafter.