Integrity in Numbers
Federal statistics are the guide by which the government',steers the massive economic and social policies that touch the^lives of us all. These statistics are very sensitive. The monthly reports on inflation, for example, are calculated in tenths of a percentage point. A few tenths of a point, up or down, are a disaster or a triumph for the administration. A few more tenths of a point can turn an election.</br></br>Professional scholars and analysts have been expressing rising concern over political pressures on the agencies that gather and compute these crucial figures. Their concern rose sharply this spring when the administration picked men from President NixonÛªs re-election campaign operations to head two of the most prestigious statistical agencies. Last Tuesday we denounced these appointments, and this morning we publish a letter in reply from Paul R. Squires, the associate director of one of those agencies, the Census Bureau. Mr. Squires correctly points out a factual error in our editorial Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is, of course, in the Department of Labor and not. as we erroneously said, in the Department of Commerce. Otherwise, unfortunately, our comments on Tuesday were accurate. If anything, we have come to this issue a bit late.</br></br>Last December, the Industrial Relations Research Association published a resolution declaring that ÛÏthe credibility of the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been impaired by events of the last two years.Û Those events had just culminated in the White HouseÛªs decision to fire the highly qualified head of the Bureau, Dr. Geoffrey Moore. Five months later, the job still has not been filled.</br></br>The American Statistical Association and the Federal Statistics UsersÛª Conference set up a point Committee on the Integrity of Federal Statistics that, after a yearÛªs study, brought out its report in February. ÛÏThe causes for concern which led to the formation of this committee have been intensified during the past year,Û it declared. It spoke of ÛÏpremature retirements of key professional personnel,Û and a reorganization pattern that ÛÏprovides increasing opportunities to exert political influence on the development and interpretation of statistical programs.Û</br></br>What could political pressure accomplish? Certainly nothing so obvious as falsified figures. But this committee report offers an illustration of the danger. Suppose that an automobile manufacturer adds pollution control equipment to its cars and raises the price. Does the price increase represent an improvement in the quality of the car? All of the price .increase? Part of it? If it is counted as a quality improvement, then it shows up in the statistics as growth in real economic production, wealth, and manpower productivity. If it is counted as a cost increase, it shows up as more inflation. In that case, it could trigger cost-Qf-living raises for millions of workers, and strengthen the political criticism of the administrationÛªs economic strategy;