Okuii Sees Moderation In Economy's Decline
Economist Arthur Okun said yesterday that while the worst recession since the 1930s is not over for the United States, the ÛÏspeed oi' decline is moderatingÛ and lower interest rates should remain stable for a long period of time.</br></br>Addressing stockholders and officers of American Security & Trust Co. at the Washington bankÛªs annual meeting, Okun said there are no signs yet that an economic upturn is beginning.</br></br>But the ÛÏmost drastic plungeÛ in economic activity since the Depression is behind us, Okun said, and the automobile and housing industries" have reached a bottom from which some recovery is possibleÛÓperhaps by late this year.</br></br>There are remaining sectors about which government leaders should be concerned, Okun said, such as capital goods spending and construction which held up while most of the industry was in depression.</br></br>The possibility of corporate insolvencies cannot be ruled out, he added, and any hopes for recovery must be keyed to consumer spending ÛÓafter a tax cutÛÓand a homebuilding revival.