Sunday, October 24,1982
A week ago. Outlook invited the White House to respond to an article by Democratic pollster Patrick Cad-dell envisioning a possible Democratic landslide on Nov. 2. The White House provided the following response by Lyn Nofziger, former chief political aide to President Reagan.</br></br>I BELIEVE SOME OF the best responses to Pat CadellÛªs claim in last SundayÛªs Outlook of a massive Democratic gain in the House of Representatives can be found on the front page of the same dayÛªs Post. As Paul Taylor and David Broder wrote, ÛÏThe strength of Republican candidates in many * marginal races, the girth of the GOP bankroll, and the absence of a compelling Democratic alternative to Reaganomics has led professionals in both parties to project Û÷normalÛª Republican losses in the House.Û</br></br>Caddell and other Democratic strategists are predicting they may win as many as 40 seats in the House and possibly retake ,the Senate. Public opinion polls can be interpreted to indicate similar Democratic gains, and economic-historical models, such as the one developed by YaleÛªs Edward Tufte, say the number could range from 40 to 70.</br></br>One of the major reasons I believe Caddell is wrong is because he is looking at the congressional elections on a national level, while it is far more accurate to view them as several hundred local elections. The concept of the Ûª82 mid-term elections as some national referendum on the president and Reaganomics simply doesnÛªt hold water in the American body politic.</br></br>Unlike Europe ÛÓ where the executive and legislature are one and the same and parliamentary elections determine who runs the country ÛÓ elections in this country for president and for Congress have always been separate in the minds of the voters.