Nation in Recession, U.S. Aides Concede: Recession Is On, U.S. Aides Agree
The White House conceded formally yesterday that the economy is in a recession, with inflation likely to continue high and the jobless rate apt to rise substantially. However, officials cautioned against any abrupt change in policy.</br></br>In an unusually candid forecast, the administration predicted the economyÛªs ÛÏrealÛ output would decline for at least two quarters, and possibly three, with a weak recovery late this year and unemployment rising to 6.9 percent in 1980.</br></br>However, a battery of high-ranking economic officials, asserting that inflation still is the nationÛªs No. 1 economic problem, warned against rushing into a general tax cut or job-creation program for fear of worsening inflation.</br></br>Urging a steady-as-you-go policy, James T. McIntyre, CarterÛªs budget director, told reporters that ÛÏif changes in the economic outlook warrant any . .. modifications in our recommendations, we will considerÛ them later.</br></br>And Daniel H. Brill, assistant secretary of the treasury for economic policy, asserted bluntly that despite the onset of the recession, ÛÏwe donÛªt see any justification for hitting the panic buttonÛ by pushing for a tax cut.