Economists Say Recession Is Ending with a Whimper
NEW YORK -- Economic storm clouds are clearing, but the streets are still slippery.</br></br>That's the midyear consensus of 40 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Although the recession is ending, they say, the recovery will be much weaker than the typical rebound since World War II. Many predict little or no change in the unemployment rate over the next several months.</br></br>Indeed, many analysts say the difference between recovery and recession will be so subtle that people who aren't economists may have difficulty seeing it.</br></br>"A lot of business people are saying to me: What recovery?" says Stuart Hoffman, senior vice president at PNC Financial Corp. in Pittsburgh. That's likely to remain a reasonable question all year, he says, because there are "many speed bumps that will keep us moving very slowly on the road to recovery."</br></br>Stiff tax increases imposed by many state and local governments this year are among the economic speed bumps Mr. Hoffman and many other analysts cite. They also point to the nation's low savings rate, and the huge debts amassed by consumers, businesses and government in the 1980s. And many predict defense spending and commercial construction will remain weak, and that U.S. export growth will be slow because of economic woes abroad.