The Washington Post Thursday, November 12, 1987 A23"  
So thick has been the marijuana smoke, and so myopic is Washington about Reagan's recent misadventures, that people have not noticed the extent to which the lame duck is limping across a political landscape he has shaped to his liking- Furthermore, proof that ReaganÛªs reservoir of luck has not run dry is this: Oct. 19, "Black Monday,Û may help economic expansion continue past the 1988 election.</br></br>Republicans may remember it as Glittering Monday. The stock market plunge was caused, in part, by a surge in interest rates. The surge was driven, in part, by inflationary expectations. They were washed away, at least for the moment, on Oct. 19, and the washing made possible a freshet of money creation by the Fed.</br></br>CapitalismÛÓand therefore civilization as we know itÛÓdepends on the annual Christmas shopping binge, now beginning. The stock market has not yet had a significant depressing effect on consumer spending, on which two-thirds of economic activity depends. In the automotive sector, anxieties produced by Wall Street, combined with the decline of the dollar and interest rates, have primarily hurt expensive foreign imports. Puppies (previously upwardly mobile persons) are thinking about the unthinkableÛÓdriving a domestic car.</br></br>The sobriety induced by the stock market shock will help Reagan resist a protectionist trade bill and has put even Social Security on the agenda, at least for a while, in deficit-reduction negotiations. Here is a measure of the rightward ratchet of the Reagan years: on the eve of an election. Congress has at least considered two difficult choices.</br></br>One is ÛÏCPI minus twoÛÛÓlimiting cost-of-living increases to two percentage points less than the increase in the consumer price index. An even better idea is ÛÏtwo years, two percent.Û The policy regarding COLAs for Social Security and military and other pensions, and all federal pay increases, would be: for two years everyone gets two percent, but only that. EveryoneÛªs ÛÏsacrificeÛ would be a slightly smaller increase. Assuming economic growth of 2.5 to 2.8 percentÛÓan optimistic but not unreasonable assumptionÛÓReagan