Washington Investing: If Haitian Operation's a Bear, Market May Be Too
Will the American move into Haiti hurt the stock market? The common wisdom on Wall Street seems to say ÛÏno."</br></br>Market analysts suggest that, as military confrontations go, an American move into Haiti wonÛªt qualify as a big enough deal to unsettle the markets. The Haitian military is tiny, compared with the 15,000-member force that would comprise the U.S.-led effort. And thus, the analysts believe, any hostilities could be over quickly.</br></br>But while that thinking could be right in the short run, it could be very wrong in the long run. That was my conclusion after a conversation with market guru Rob Brown, who hangs his hat at Ferris, Baker Watts in Baltimore. BrownÛªs view was that the impact of a Haitian adventure on the stock market would depend less on military factors than on psychological ones.</br></br>If the U.S. operation goes off without a hitch, taking place cleanly and quickly and without casualties, Brown observed, the markets will continue on their normal course. Market participants, he noted, will give President Clinton no special credit for the effort.</br></br>But if there are casualties inflicted on U.S. troops by the Haitian military, or worse yet, if there are casualties caused by "friendly fire,Û as happened in the Persian Gulf, or if GIs are killed or injured in jeep accidents or plane crashes unrelated to possible fightingÛÓthe Haitian operation could become a major embarrassment to the Clinton administration.