Are We Running Out of Time for an Economic Lift?
Over the past 15 or 20 years, the amount of work done by Americans for pay has gone up dramatically, largely because more and more women have taken jobs outside their homes. This added source of labor helped boost economic growth, but the chart at the right suggests that this phenomenon may have just about run its course.</br></br>The chart, the work of economist David Kelly of Lehman Brothers Inc. in Boston, is based on two norms in American society:</br></br>So multiplying by 40 the number of Americans between those ages who are not in hospitals or prisons gives a measure of the total number of hours that would be worked if all those people had jobs and put in a typical week. That figure naturally rises as the population and work force grow.</br></br>Of course, not everyone in the 16-65 age group either has a job or wants one. Millions of people, particularly younger ones, are full-time students. Additional millions of women, and some men, do not hold jobs because they are taking care of a home and, perhaps, children. Some have disabilities or illnesses that prevent them from working. Others may not need to work to make money, or, discouraged by unsuccessful searches for jobs, have simply quit looking. And finally, there are 7.9 million unemployed people looking for work.</br></br>The line on the chart shows the actual hours Americans have worked as a share of potential hours. Fluctuating between 60 percent and 64 percent for many years, the share of potential hours being worked began to rise in the latter half of the 1970s, essentially because a rising proportion of women took jobs for pay instead of working at home for no pay.