Clinton aides see improving trend in productivity
WASHINGTON -- President Clinton's economic advisers say the trend in U.S. productivity growth may be improving, boosting the prospects for growth in living standards in coming years.</br></br>The Economic Report of the President, released yesterday, said the growth in U.S. productivity, which is a measure of the output per hour worked, has averaged about 2% a year since 1991 -- more than twice the 1978-87 average. Some of that may reflect a rebound from the recession; but even if measured from 1987, productivity has grown 1.2%, up from 0.9% in the 10 previous years.</br></br>"There may have, indeed, been a structural change" in productivity growth, said Laura Tyson, chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers. Such an increase could have positive implications for Americans' standards of living, which are ultimately determined by the productivity of American workers.</br></br>But the president's economic report also points out that it may be too soon to jump to conclusions about productivity growth. For one thing, the statistics can be misleading. If the trends are computed for different periods -- 1978-86 and 1986-94 -- productivity growth averages only 1.1% in the latest period, up from 1% in the earlier period, not much of a difference. Also, recently released Labor Department data on hours worked suggest that productivity could be revised downward by one-tenth of a percentage point in 1993 and 1994.</br></br>"While the evidence of a slight improvement in the productivity growth trend is encouraging, it is not yet decisive," the report said, adding that two more years of data may present a clearer picture.