Mexican Home Front Sees No End to Crisis; Jobless Total Climbs Despite Turnaround on Trade
Despite governmental assertions that Mexico's economic crisis has bottomed out, indicators abound across the country that for Mexicans the worst may be yet to come.</br></br>Officials of President Ernesto Zedillo's government acknowledge that the rosy scenario they are painting for foreign audiences -- monthly trade surpluses, a reduced current accounts deficit and improved stock market performance -- must also be viewed in the context of a bleak domestic picture. Unemployment rates are rising steeply, annual inflation is forecast at 45 to 50 percent, and street crime and scattered acts of civil disobedience are mounting -- all related to the nation's current economic strife.</br></br>Although Mexico's foreign creditors are being repaid on schedule -- thanks to a U.S.-organized bailout totaling $38 billion and a sharp reversal in the trade balance -- senior Mexican officials acknowledge that much of the recovery will come at the expense of average citizens.</br></br>More than 500,000 people already have lost their jobs in the economic crisis sparked by the Dec. 20 devaluation of the Mexican peso, while the national chamber of small industries, known as Canacintra, warned this week that another 250,000 will join the ranks of the unemployed before year's end. One-fifth of all Mexicans are either unemployed or underemployed, according to another national employers' association, while Social Development Secretary Carlos Rojas warned last month that 14 million of Mexico's 92 million people now live in poverty.</br></br>One of the most worrisome aspects of the crisis, officials say, is that funds for severance pay for laid-off employees, normally totaling three months' salary, are beginning to run out. Mexico does not offer U.S.-style unemployment or welfare benefits, which means that by June and July, hundreds of thousands of workers displaced by the crisis will have no steady income.