Greenspan Sees Recession's End Relatively Soon --- Fed Chief Cites Cheaper Oil, Ending of Gulf Conflict; But He Adds a Warning
WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recession continues but suggested the end is in sight.</br></br>In his first public comments since the war in the Persian Gulf ended, Mr. Greenspan told the House Ways and Means Committee that "as best we can judge, the economy continues to edge down through a good part of February." But he added, "I think the turn is going to occur in a reasonably short period of time." He said demand probably will begin to pick up "over the coming months."</br></br>The Fed chief wasn't asked about interest rates in the 2 1/2-hour hearing, but his latest remarks reinforce the view that monetary policy is on hold after a period of aggressive easing.</br></br>"The relief from lower energy prices, along with a potential boost to confidence from the end of the Gulf war, should be laying the groundwork for some firming in consumer spending in coming months," Mr. Greenspan said.</br></br>The Fed chairman has said the sudden plunge in consumer and business confidence following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait probably triggered the recession. "Consumer confidence is coming back slowly, not rapidly," he said yesterday.