Abreast of the market: Researchers pore over blue-chip history
As the scholar says, history repeats itself.</br></br>At least that's what a lot of Wall Street analysts believe. Or hope. In a year that has gotten off to a shaky and uncertain beginning, historical precedence has become one of the few touchstones remaining on Wall Street.</br></br>Right now analysts have only a cloudy view of what is happening, or what to expect in the next 12 to 18 months. For one thing, government economic statistics have fallen victim to the fiscal paralysis in Washington. Without these guideposts, the view deep into the year has grown very murky. Some analysts expect growth and inflation, and others anticipate recession and bad earnings. In other words, people are all over the map.</br></br>"There are still a lot of fears out there," says Richard Bernstein, chief quantitative analyst at Merrill Lynch. "Last year, a lot of people said stock prices couldn't go higher. Now, prices are higher, and people think they can't keep going higher."</br></br>Mr. Bernstein says uncertainty and fear are contributing to the widely held consensus of stock-price gains of around 10% in the coming year. Why? Because, Mr. Bernstein points out, that's the historical average return for stock prices.