The Arnold Effect: California Election Gives GOP a Star -- And a Warning; Vital Democratic Base Erodes, But Focus on Incumbents, Deficit Could Hit Bush Too; A Test for Social Conservatives
The Republican party has a powerful new superhero. But Arnold Schwarzenegger's surprisingly strong victory in California also flashes some warning signs for President Bush and his party.</br></br>Mr. Schwarzenegger ousted Democratic Gov. Gray Davis with ease and cut deeply into Democrats' traditional union and Hispanic base. He brings the Republicans a star quality that recalls another former actor and California governor, Ronald Reagan. And Mr. Schwarzenegger represents an instant asset in the nation's largest state as Mr. Bush gears up for his re-election campaign.</br></br>Yet Mr. Schwarzenegger prevailed by stoking voters' frustration with those in power and the desire to oust them -- troubling sentiments for Republicans who control all levers of power at the national level. The California revolt began with a failure to resolve a big budget deficit, one of the problems at the top of Mr. Bush's list of woes. And Mr. Schwarzenegger's broad appeal came in part from his moderate stands on abortion, gay rights and gun control -- positions sure to set off nasty fights at any national Republican gathering.</br></br>Moreover, Mr. Schwarzenegger's campaign offered no real clue about how he will deal with his most pressing problem: keeping his promises to cut an unpopular auto tax, raise no other new taxes, increase education spending and somehow close California's yawning deficit all at the same time. With the intense national spotlight that now shines on the Golden State, Republicans badly need him to succeed.</br></br>Mr. Schwarzenegger didn't flesh out his plans in any more detail in his first postelection news conference yesterday afternoon. He reiterated his campaign-trail vow that "I will not raise taxes." But he also said he'd just learned that the state's budget deficit may turn out to be $20 billion rather than the previous estimate of $8 billion, though the reason he alluded to -- a pending legal action to halt the sale of some state bonds -- has been well-known to state officials and observers for some time. He said only that he'll arrange an independent audit of state government's books and then work with the Democratic-controlled Legislature to close the gap.