The Area's Economy Is in Transition, Not a Downturn or a Slowdown
Beyond its primary purpose in assessing the economic outlook in the state, a new study by the University of Maryland at College Park makes a valuable contribution to the continuing dialogue on the dramatic shift in the region's economy.</br></br>In the short-hand vernacular used to describe the state of the economy, hackneyed terms such as slowdown, slump and downturn just never seemed to put the trend in proper context. The study by the University of Maryland's Department of Economics appears to do just that in describing what has happened in these past several months. Maryland's economy is in transition, assert the study's authors, Mahlon R. Straszheim and Lorraine Sullivan Monaco, chairman and instructor, respectively, in the university's economics department.</br></br>As explained by the authors, the transition is from "a period of rapid growth in real income and employment, accompanied by moderate rates of inflation, to a period of substantially slower real growth, higher inflation and increasing uncertainty in product, labor and financial markets." Those changes tend to mirror those of the national economy, Straszheim and Monaco noted in the study, titled, "Outlook for the State of Maryland Economy."</br></br>The changes mirror not only those in the national economy but also trends in the region that includes the District and much of Virginia as well as Maryland. Indeed, transition is the very word a speaker used in describing the region's economic performance at a recent meeting of Washington-area executives.</br></br>The transition in Maryland's case is likely to continue at least through next year, Straszheim indicated in an interview this week. Even at the end of 1991-assuming the national economy improves significantly-growth will be moderate at best, he believes.