Tracking the Economy: November Inflation Rate Is Seen Up 0.4% --- Relatively Flat Rise Belies Belief by Some Of a Speed-up Ahead
NEW YORK -- Consumers, who made their presence felt in last week's retail sales report, find out tomorrow how inflated the bill was when the November consumer price index is released.</br></br>The CPI, which measures inflation, is expected to have risen 0.4%, about the same as in October. Economists' estimates for November's increase run from 0.2% to 0.5%, according to MMS International, a Redwood City, Calif., firm. Retail sales jumped 1.1% in November, raising concerns that inflation is creeping up to troublesome levels.</br></br>Even if the CPI comes in flat, some economists think it's only a matter of time before prices leap. "The economy is like a sleeping tiger waiting to be awakened by a very strong economy," said Allen Sinai, president of Boston Co.'s Economic Advisors Inc. unit. "And the fourth quarter looks extremely strong," he added.</br></br>The overall CPI index has been climbing by 0.3% or 0.4% each month during the past half year, for an annual rate increase of 4.6%. Mr. Sinai figures that the annual rate could speed up to 5.5% to 6% in the not-too-distant future.</br></br>Food and energy, the CPI's two most volatile components, have been relatively stable recently. But economists say that food price increases seem moderate largely because the drought-induced runup last summer is abating. And oil prices aren't fully reflecting recent increases in crude oil quotations, they added.