Leading Economic Indicators Show Rise In Sign Expansion Can Last to Year End
WASHINGTON -- The Conference Board's index of leading indicators moved up slightly in March, signaling that U.S. economic expansion probably will continue vigorously through 1998.</br></br>Michael D. Boldin, director of business-cycle research at the New York business-research organization, said the economic omens point to continued strong growth in gross domestic product in the months ahead.</br></br>"It looks like above 3% is not impossible for the whole year," Mr. Boldin said. Last week, the government reported that the economy expanded in the first quarter at an annualized rate of 4.2%, but few economists believe that pace is sustainable through the rest of the year. The leading-indicators index, considered a reasonable predictor of turning points in the economy, measured 105.2, up from 105 in February.</br></br>The March increase came largely from two of the 10 components that make up the index: stock prices and money supply. Both of those measures reflect the strength of financial markets and are considered fairly reliable indicators of the strength of future economic growth, not just of whether the economy will stay out of recession.</br></br>Other increases were seen in orders to manufacturers for consumer goods and a measure of suppliers' delivery times. Declines were seen in big-ticket orders to manufacturers, excluding defense contracts.