A26 Saturday, Febhuahy 15, 1986
VOTERS DONÛªT write the federal budget; thatÛªs what they hire politicians for. So a poll of votersÛª opinions on budget issues must be interpreted carefully. Take this monthÛªs Post-ABC News poll. It shows, for example, that only 22 percent favor defense spending increases, while even fewerÛÓfrom 4 to 20 percentÛÓsupport cuts in domestic programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and student loans. Since the presidentÛªs budget increases defense and cuts the latter, you might conclude that the voters are solidly against it.</br></br>But there is something to the argument, usually made by administration acolytes, that voters are using Mr. ReaganÛªs programs as a baseline. They understand that defense has gone up a lot in the Reagan years, and, happy with that, see no need for it to go up much more; they have the sense that domestic spending has been cut, and are cautious about cutting it further. And certainly they come out on Mr. ReaganÛªs side on tax increases. By a 68-to-30-percent margin, they agree that taxes should not be increased to cut the deficit.</br></br>Even granting all that, however, the poll does not support the White House position that the people really support the presidentÛªs budget, even if the politicians donÛªt. Mr. ReaganÛªs operatives are quick to argue that weli-connected lobbyists and well-positioned congressmen have kept in place many programs that the public generally doesnÛªt particularly want and for whose continued existence there are only the flimsiest of arguments. True enough. But added all together, these programs donÛªt amount to much. The real dollar cuts in Mr. ReaganÛªs budget come in things such as Medicare, Medicaid, housing and student loans.</br></br>When you know that, you understand why that budget doesnÛªt have very many votes on the Republican side of the aisle, let alone among the Democrats. Would you like to run for reelection next fallÛÓpick any state or district you likeÛÓon a platform of big cuts in medical care and student loans? Not surprisingly, few Republicans are being advised by their pollsters and consultants to do so. The Post-ABC News poll shows, as other polls have shown, and as the results of the political process over the past five years have shown, that the public doesnÛªt want big cuts in these programs.</br></br>It wonÛªt be easy to reconcile that desire with the publicÛªs aversion to tax increases. The polls give little guidance, since voters have no clear sense of the magnitudes of money involved. But reconciling these conflicting goals is the unpleasant business the voters hired the president and Congress to perform, however much both sometimes seem to want to deny it.