Economy to Get Stronger in '88, Purchasers Say --- Survey, Taken After Crash, Cites Export Business; Mild Inflation Rise Seen
NEW YORK -- Despite nervousness about falling stock prices, the nation's corporate purchasing managers expect stronger economic growth in 1988 and only a mild increase in inflation.</br></br>Purchasing managers surveyed in mid-November by the National Association of Purchasing Management were "extremely optimistic" about the 1988 outlook, said Robert J. Bretz, chairman of the association's business survey committee. This optimism, he said, is fueled by "significant increases in export business."</br></br>The purchasing managers sounded more optimistic than most economists in several recent surveys. Many economists fear the stock market's collapse on Oct. 19 will make shoppers more cautious, especially on such major purchases as autos and homes. Some also fear the stock market's woes may persuade companies to postpone capital spending plans until a clearer picture of the economy's health emerges. Nevertheless, most economists still contend there is no evidence of a recession coming anytime soon.</br></br>The consensus in the association's semiannual survey is that this year's fourth quarter will be better than the third. Also, next year's first half is expected to be even stronger than this year's second half.</br></br>The economy's pace is expected to slow in the second half of 1988. Price increases next year will average about 3.6%, up from an estimated 3.2% this year.