One Sure Fact: Baby Boomers Are Aging --- But Forecasters Dispute Impact On Economy
The baby boom, which has confounded forecasters since it was conceived, is at it again.</br></br>The latest confusion stems from the middle-aging of the baby boomers. The first boomers turned 40 in 1986, and another four million or so will cross that threshold each year through 2004.</br></br>Many prognosticators are absolutely certain this means something significant to business and the U.S. economy. They disagree, however, on what that something is. Will the aging of the baby boom lead to a surge in consumer spending? A flood of savings? A drop in demand for houses?</br></br>"Marketers have been in love with the baby boom for years now," says Judy Langer, a New York marketing consultant. "They have come to realize that people who are 40 aren't dead. The feeling is very much that it will be a very good market." But, she adds, "People don't know exactly where the boomers are headed."</br></br>To a large extent, the economic direction of maturing baby boomers will depend on whether they behave as their parents did at the same age. So far, there isn't enough evidence to tell. Here's some of the thinking among baby-boom watchers in three major areas of uncertainty: