Suharto's Fall
Not even the Wizard of Oz slid as swiftly from apparent invincibility to apparent impotence as Indonesia's President Suharto. Now his demise seems readily explainable, as these things always are in retrospect. When his economic miracle morphed into economic crisis, Asia's longest-reigning dictator lost the legitimacy that had masked or excused his regime's many failings while allowing him to buy off potential foes. And when he was forced to kowtow so visibly to the IMF to ensure his nation's survival, he lost the aura of inevitable power that had kept so many of his voiceless subjects living in fear.</br></br>So what is striking now, in retrospect, is not Suharto's fall -- not the apparently frail old man who emerged with trembling voice from behind the Wizard's curtain -- but rather how, up until the very last moment, the outside world doubted and disparaged Indonesia's "People Power." Indonesia was not ready for democracy, was the consensus that only Indonesians chose to ignore; Suharto could not fall.</br></br>Why so many held so misguided a view for so long is worth examining now because many of the same voices can be heard again, touting stability over democratic change. The Clinton administration, to its credit, is no longer among them; President Clinton quickly recognized Suharto's resignation as only the first step of a necessary process of democratic change. But many others seem ready to send the unruly students home. Enough upheaval for now, is their message; let's get back to the business of healing a crippled economy -- even though Suharto's repressive system remains, so far, unchanged.</br></br>Their logic is the same as when they were explaining why Suharto could not be replaced. Indonesia is too poor, and its economy too damaged, to manage a political transition now. The opposition is too fragmented, without ideology or program, united only in its disgust for the nepotism and corruption of the Suharto regime. There is no single opposition leader with the stature to unite a nation of so many islands, religions and ethnic groups.</br></br>Mix in the absence of viable political parties and civic institutions after 32 years of stifling dictatorial rule. Recall the lack of democratic tradition in a country that has experienced only two transitions in the past half-century, both violent. Add a Javanese culture of patrimonial rule, communal values and mystical respect for power wielded from above.