Economic Forecasters Expect Moderate Recovery in 2002 --- Growth Is Seen Rising To 3.6% Later in Year, Subpar for Trough End
NEW YORK -- "On your mark. Get set. Go . . . slowly."</br></br>The nation's hopes for a fast start aside, forecasters don't expect the U.S. economy to be off to the races this year. Although they see America breaking out of recession, most believe the pace of the recovery will be subpar.</br></br>"This will be a year of convalescence, and the debate in my view is not whether recovery is coming, it's how strong it will be," says Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley Until recently, Morgan Stanley was among the more bearish firms on Wall Street regarding the economy. But yesterday, the company issued a report saying "the recession appears to be ending."</br></br>The consensus estimate of the 55 economists who participated in The Wall Street Journal's economic-forecasting survey calls for real gross domestic product -- the value of the nation's output, adjusted for inflation -- to rise at an annual rate of just 0.87% during the first quarter and 2.4% during the second quarter. But the forecasters see the economy picking up momentum during the second half of the year, with growth rising 3.6%.</br></br>The government won't release estimates for growth in the just-ended fourth quarter until later this month, but most economists are expecting a contraction of more than 1%.