No Felling for the Christmas Spree
[Financial Analysis and Commentary]</br></br>The holiday season is about to begin and people feel glum. That isn't a reason to think they won't be spending freely.</br></br>Even before last month, the nation's mood wasn't looking so hot. The government shutdown and debt fight made it far worse. Gallup's daily measure of confidence in the economy in early October plumbed levels unseen since 2011.</br></br>It has recovered some since then but is still below year-earlier levels. The preliminary November reading on the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment showed moods at their darkest in two years. A survey sponsored by the National Retail Federation showed the average holiday shopper plans to spend about 2% less this year.</br></br>This backdrop has some reckoning the holidays might not be so cheerful for stores. Economists at IHS Global Insight say the drops in confidence represent "potential setbacks for retailers." In a report advising investors to "expect coal," Morgan Stanley predicts tepid spending growth will make 2013 the weakest holiday season since 2008.