Recession Is Over, a Few Bulls Say, Bucking Field's Dismal Forecasts
Corrections & Amplifications</br></br>A SURVEY by Blue Chip Economic Indicators found that 70% of respondents believe the recession will end by April. An article yesterday incorrectly reported that 70% of the respondents predicted the recession wouldn't end until April. (WSJ Dec. 12, 2001)</br></br>NEW YORK -- Just two weeks ago, a recession was officially declared to have begun in March. Now a small group of bullish economists is declaring that it already is over, or nearly so.</br></br>The group, led by Ian Shepherdson at High Frequency Economics and Ed Hyman at ISI Group Inc., is decidedly out on a limb. Most other economists are forecasting that the economy will continue to contract during the current quarter, and a recovery will begin in the spring or summer at the earliest. The Federal Reserve, meeting today, is expected to cut its target for short-term interest rates for the eleventh time this year to 1.75% from 2% amid concerns over economic weakness. With unemployment rising and the global economy on the ropes, Fed officials are expected to indicate they remain more inclined to lower rates than raise them.</br></br>There was little reason to be optimistic after Friday's release of the employment report for November. Among other things, the report said the unemployment rate jumped to 5.7% last month -- the highest level in six years -- while the economy lost 331,000 jobs.