Crisis in the Mideast Adds an Unexpected Twist to Midterm Elections Already Considered Pivotal
WASHINGTON -- Suddenly an unpredictable element -- the Gulf crisis -- has been injected into the fall state and congressional campaigns.</br></br>For months, candidates have been carefully positioning themselves on the issues of abortion, the thrift crisis, campaign finance and the budget. But as the midterm campaigns get under way in earnest this week, candidates in both parties are wondering how the current crisis will skew November's elections.</br></br>"Iraq is the big `X' factor," says Kevin Phillips, the Republican political theorist. "You have to know how many casualties there are. You have to know what happens to hostages. You have to know what happens to oil prices. And you probably have to know what's happening with the stock market."</br></br>The political possibilities range from a move to rally-'round-the-leader, which could help Republicans, to an economic recession, which could be devastating to Republicans, to a situation where a standoff or a shooting war overwhelms all other issues.</br></br>So far, candidates have approached the Middle East crisis with deliberate caution, lining up behind the president and seldom voicing any second thoughts about the massive deployment of U.S. soldiers and materiel to Saudi Arabia; only in a few scattered states have even the faintest hints emerged of a debate over U.S. policy toward Saddam Hussein. But in the next nine weeks, as the contours of the Gulf crisis become clearer, the issue will surely take on a political tint.