Jobless Rate Above 10% Predicted: Level May Fall To 8 1/2 % in '82,...
A top administration economic official predicted yesterday that the unemployment rate, now at 9.4 percent, will climb above 10 percent within the next few months.</br></br>William Niskanen, a member of the Council of Economic Advisers, said that higher unemployment is an ÛÏunavoidable consequenceÛ of policies designed to fight inflation. However, Niskanen said in an interview on CBS Morning News .(WDVM, Channel 9) that the Reagan program for recovery already is in place and that after unemployment peaks, the rate might fall to ,8Vz percent by the end of the year.</br></br>Whether or not a recovery begins soonÛÓas Niskanen and most other administration officials believeÛÓconsumers donÛªt think the economy is Û¢out of danger. The University of Michigan reported yesterday that consumer confidence is decliningÛÓin part because of recession and high unemployment and in part because of continued high interest rates.</br></br>Another administration official, in a background briefing with reporters yesterday, said the time is past when any new administration policies can affect the recession and the unemployment rate before the November elections.</br></br>However, the officialÛÓwho asked not to be identifiedÛÓtold reporters at a luncheon meeting that the administration can change the nationÛªs ÛÏpsychological attitudesÛ toward the economy and instill confidence in consumers and business executives. He said President Reagan will meet with business leaders today to drum up support for the Senate Budget CommitteeÛªs compromise budget and will meet with investment community officials Wednesday and bankers Thursday to discuss the discrepancy between the low inflation rate and continued high interest rates.