This study demonstrates the potential value, and difficulties, in utilizing large-scale, location aware, administrative data together with urban modeling to address current policy issues in a timely fashion. We take advantage of a unique dataset of millions of odometer readings from annual safety inspections of all private passenger vehicles in Metropolitan Boston to estimate the vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) implica- tion of alternative metropolitan growth scenarios: a sprawl-type "let-it-be" scenario and a smart-growth- type "winds-of-change" scenario. The data are georeferenced to 250 ¥ 250 m grid cells developed by MassGIS. We apply a greedy algorithm to assign Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level household growth projections to grid cells and then use spatial interpolation tools to estimate VMT-per-vehicle surfaces for the region. If new growth households have similar VMT behavior as their neighbors, then the let-it-be scenario will generate 12-15% more VMT per household compared to the winds-of-change scenario. However, even the "wind-of-change" scenario, will result in new households averaging higher VMT per household than the Metro Boston average observed in 2005. The implication is that urban growth man- agement can significantly reduce GHG but, by itself, will not be sufficient to achieve the GHG emission reduction targets set by the State for the transportation sector.
['Joseph Ferreira', 'Mi Diao', 'Jingsi Xu']
Estimating the Vehicle‐Miles‐Traveled Implications of Alternative Metropolitan Growth Scenarios: A Boston Example