Non-technical loss (NTL) represents a major challenge when providing reliable electrical service in developing countries, where it often accounts for 11-15% of total generation capacity [1]. NTL is caused by a variety of factors such as theft, unmetered homes, and inability to pay which at volume can lead to system instability, grid failure, and major financial losses for providers.   In this paper, we investigate error sources and techniques for separating NTL from total losses in microgrids. Our approach models the primary sources of state uncertainty including line losses, transformer losses, meter calibration error, packet loss, and sample synchronization error. We conduct an extensive data-driven simulation on 72 days of wireless meter data from a 430-home microgrid deployed in Les Anglais, Haiti. We show that the model can be used to determine uncertainty bounds that can help in separating NTL from total losses.
['Maxim Buevich', 'Xiao Zhang', 'Dan Schnitzer', 'Tristan Escalada', 'Arthur Jacquiau-Chamski', 'Jon Thacker', 'Anthony Rowe']
Short Paper: Microgrid Losses: When the Whole is Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts