1) ROC curves of naive helper cells CD45RA+ in CD4+ to predict CDP at one year. AUC for the population relative value = 0.662, AUC for the population relative value change compared to baseline = 0.628, AUC for the population relative value change compared to a measurement one year before = 0.523. 2) Survival curves and asymptotic log-rank tests for groups divided by the threshold