Sector Direct and cascading risksEnabling principles of cli- mate resilience pathwaysAnticipated future condi- tions/level of certaintyCompounding risks (non-cli- matic factors) Coastal settlements (CCP6.2.5)Change in extent of sea ice with more storm surges, thawing of permafrost, SLR and coastal erosionLocal leadership and community-led initiatives to initiate and drive processes, responsive agencies, established processes for assessments and planning, geographic optionsIncreasing number of communities needing relocation (medium confidence), rising costs for mitigating erosion (high confidence)Limitations of government budgets, other disasters that may take priority, policies deficiencies for addressing mitigation and relocation Human health (CCP6.2.6)Increased food insecurity, waterborne disease, emerging pathogens, injury and death, and negative mental health outcomesResources to support public programmes; Indigenous self-determination; access to technology; supporting IK systems; interdisciplinary and integrated decision makingThe intersection of social determinants of health will modify or mediate climate change impacts on health (very high confidence)Underlying health conditions, advances in diagnosis and treatment, and other health system shocks (e.g., COVID) Transportation (aviation, rail, road, ice roads) (CCP6.2.4.3)Permafrost thaw, sea ice change, storm surge, coastal erosion, changing precipitation patterns (ice pellets, hail) and extreme events create risks to transportation infrastructure with consequences to navigation, economics, safety and securityFinancial and human resources for: climate-resilient infrastructure research, development and implementation; improved weather, water, ice and climate forecasting at appropriate scales; improved communications infrastructure; local search and rescueLimits to adaptation exist (high confidence), but strategic investments in technologically innovative infrastructure that offers mitigation co-benefits will greatly enhance adaptation effectiveness (very high confidence)Level of local, regional and national infrastructure development, commitment of national and state level government to sustainable development pathways, global economic and political trends, commodity prices, unforeseen system shocks Shipping (Box CCP6.1; FAQ CCP2)Sea ice reduction leading to increased shipping related to trade, tourism, fisheries, resource development and re-supply with cascading risks from ships such as: increased under-water noise, potential introduction of invasive species, fuel spill risks, release of black carbon and air emissions, impacts to cultural resources, implications for subsistence hunting and food security, increased accidents and incidentsFinancial support for ship-building technologies (e.g., low-emission fuels, propulsion technologies, hull strength); development of robust multi-national agreements (in addition to existing agreements); inclusion of Indigenous Peoples in decision making; investment in multi-national and longitudinal research on shipping impacts; and enhancing modern digital maritime chartingShip traffic will continue to grow in polar regions (high confidence), with Arctic trade routes becoming increasing accessible (very high confidence) albeit with more challenging navigation due to increases in mobile ice in the near-term compared with late century when ice is expected to diminish completely during the shipping season