CCP6 2348Cross-Chapter Paper 6 Polar Regions Sector Direct and cascading risksEnabling principles of cli- mate resilience pathwaysAnticipated future condi- tions/level of certaintyCompounding risks (non-cli- matic factors) Non-renewable resource extraction (Arctic only) (CCP6.2.4.1)Reduced sea ice improves access to non-renewable resources in remote Arctic regions, while warming temperature and thawing permafrost affect production levels, quality, and reliability and season length of ice roads, leading to increased operational costsInvestment in climate-resilient infrastructure and low-emission transportation (shipping) and investment in solar powered ships and low-impact modular mining camp infrastructureIncrease in mining in newly accessible marine regions (medium confidence), frequent false starts (i.e., due to climatic and non-climatic factors) (high confidence) and high levels of operational uncertainty (i.e., commodity prices, economic trends, climate risks) (very high confidence)Commodity prices; global economic trends and shocks; Indigenous rights and decisions; changing regulatory environments, geopolitics, global demand for resources Tourism (CCP6.2.4.2)Increased demand for polar tourism activities including development of ‘last chance tourism’ market; increased tourism improves economic conditions but leads to increased environmental and cultural impactsFinancial resources for service and infrastructure development; Indigenous self-determination and development of co-management approaches for natural and cultural attractions; development of multi-stakeholder/rightsholder tourism task teamsPolar tourism demand will continue to increase, especially for cruise and yacht experiences (high confidence) and enhance risks related to ship groundings, accidents and incidents (medium confidence)Limited search and rescue capacity, poor infrastructure, aging expedition cruise ship fleet, uncharted waters, geological and sovereignty debates, global economic trends, unforeseen events (i.e., severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), COVID-19) altering tourism demand patterns Reindeer herding (CCP6.2.3.1; 6.2.3.2; 6.2.5; Box CCP6.2)Rain-on-snow events causing high mortality of herds, especially in the autumn season; shrubification of tundra pasture lowering forage qualityFlexibility in movement to respond to changes in pastures, secure land use rights; adaptive management; continued economic viability and cultural tradition; self-determination in decision making; adequate support for communication and technological services; Indigenous rights upheld and protectedIncreased frequency of extreme events and changing forage quality adding to vulnerabilities of reindeer and herders