The Pacific EBUS are projected to have calcium carbonate undersaturation in surface waters within a few decades RCP8.5 (high confidence); combined with warming and decreasing oxygen levels, this will increase the impacts on shellfish larvae, benthic invertebrates, and demersal fishes (high confidence) and related fisheries and aquaculture (medium confidence).’ ‘The inherent natural variability of EBUS, together with uncertainties in present and future trends in the intensity and seasonality of upwelling, coastal warming and stratification, primary production and biogeochemistry of source waters poses large challenges in projecting the response of EBUS to climate change and to the adaptation of governance of biodiversity conservation and living marine resources in EBUS (high confidence).’ ‘Given the high sensitivity of the coupled human–natural EBUS to oceanographic changes, the future sustainable delivery of key ecosystem services from EBUS is at risk under climate change; those that are most at risk in the 21st century include fisheries (high confidence), aquaculture (medium confidence), coastal tourism (low confidence) and climate regulation (low confidence).’ ‘For vulnerable human communities with a strong dependence on EBUS services and low adaptive capacity, such as those along the Canary Current system, unmitigated climate-change effects on EBUS (complicated by other non-climatic stresses such as social unrest) have a high risk of altering their development pathways