Phenomenon and Direction of TrendProjected Changes at +1.5ºC Global WarmingProjected Changes at +2°C Global WarmingProjected Changes at +4°C Global Warming Warmer and/or more frequent hot days and nights over most land areas Warmer and/or fewer cold days and nights over most land areas Warm spells/heatwaves; increases in frequency or intensity over most land areas Cold spells/cold waves: decreases in frequency or intensity over most land areasVirtually certain on global scale Extremely likely on all continents Highest increase of temperature of hottest days is projected in some mid-latitude and semi-arid regions, and the South American Monsoon region, at about 1.5 times to twice the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3, Figure 11.3} Highest increase of temperature of coldest days is projected in Arctic regions, at about three times the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3} Continental-scale projections: Extremely likely : Africa, Asia, Australasia, Central and South America, Europe, North America {11.3, 11.9}Virtually certain on global scale Virtually certain on all continents Highest increase of temperature of hottest days is projected in some mid-latitude and semi-arid regions, and the South American Monsoon region, at about 1.5 times to twice the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3, Figure 11.3} Highest increase of temperature of coldest days is projected in Arctic regions, at about three times the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3} Continental-scale projections: Virtually certain: Africa, Asia, Australasia, Central and South America, Europe, North America {11.3, 11.9}Virtually certain on global scale Virtually certain on all continents Highest increase of temperature of hottest days is projected in some mid-latitude and semi-arid regions, and the South American Monsoon region, at about 1.5 times to twice the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3, Figure 11.3} Highest increase of temperature of coldest days is projected in Arctic regions, at about three times the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3} Continental-scale projections: Virtually certain: Africa, Asia, Australasia, Central and South America, Europe, North America {11.3, 11.9} Heavy precipitation events: increase in the frequency, intensity, and/or amount of heavy precipitation High confidence that increases take place in most land regions {11.4} Very likely: Asia, North America Likely: Africa, Europe High confidence: Central and South America Medium confidence: Australasia {11.4, 11.9}Likely that increases take place in most land regions {11.4} Extremely likely: Asia, North America Very likely: Africa, Europe Likely: Australasia, Central and South America {11.4, 11.9}Very likely that increases take place in most land regions {11.4} Virtually certain: Africa, Asia, North America Extremely likely: Central and South America, Europe Very likely Australasia {11.4, 11.9} Agricultural and ecological droughts: increases in intensity and/or duration of drought events More regions affected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts compared to observed changes