When the chances of winning a high ticket in lottery are so bad, why do so many people think they can win?
user
This is a classic question in psychology, it’s called the Gambler’s Fallacy.  But, because there are many ways of answering the question, I’ll just throw out one possibility as a first answer.  And that is that the odds are confusingly reported, in many cases, and people just don’t understand the calculations well.
assistant
I mean, you can't win if you don't play, but come on. You have a better chance of getting bit by a shark.
user
Well, I’m only just starting to learn about this stuff, but it seems that some people have more trust in their own future good luck than others.  Some people have a lot of confidence that good things will happen to them, and so are willing to bet on unlikely possibilities because they know they have a good chance of getting lucky.
assistant
When the chances of winning a high ticket in lottery are so bad, why do so many people think they can win?
user
This is a classic question in psychology, it’s called the Gambler’s Fallacy.  But, because there are many ways of answering the question, I’ll just throw out one possibility as a first answer.  And that is that the odds are confusingly reported, in many cases, and people just don’t understand the calculations well.
assistant
I mean, you can't win if you don't play, but come on. You have a better chance of getting bit by a shark.
user
Of course!  That makes a lot of sense.  If you have a small chance of getting bitten, it makes a lot of sense to keep playing and try your luck.  In fact, we have some behavioral experiments that have shown that people’s willingness to gamble is correlated with a measure of their confidence in their understanding of probability.  The more accurate their estimate of probability, the more willing they are to gamble.
assistant
When the chances of winning a high ticket in lottery are so bad, why do so many people think they can win?