The next day, the MFR also began classifying the system. The nascent depression moved generally to the southeast, and later more to the south-southeast, ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. On December 20, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Alexandra, and that day developed an ill-defined eye, as well as good inflow. The JTWC upgraded Alexandra to the equivalent of a minimal hurricane – with 1‑minute sustained winds of at least 120 km/h (75 mph) on December 21, but MFR only estimated peak 10‑minute winds of 105 km/h (65 mph). Although the MFR estimated the storm subsequently weakened, the JTWC assessed that Alexandra continued to intensity to a peak 1‑minute intensity of 195 km/h (120 mph) on December 22. Around that time, the cyclone had slowed and turned to the east. Increased shear caused gradual weakening, and the strengthening of the subtropical ridge turned Alexandra to the southwest. The JTWC discontinued advisories on December 26, and Alexandra dissipated three days later well to the east-northeast of Mauritius, or about 1,600 km (1,000 mi) south of where it first formed. The MFR began monitoring a tropical depression on December 25 about 900 km (550 mi) east-northeast of the northern tip of Madagascar. Initially moving eastward without any strengthening, the depression turned back to the west toward Madagascar on December 28 due to a ridge. Two days later, the JTWC also began tracking the system, designating it as Tropical Cyclone 10S. With warmer water temperatures but persistent wind shear, the system strengthened into Tropical Storm Bryna on December 31. At 1800 UTC that day, the MFR estimated peak 10‑minute winds of 70 km/h (45 mph). On January 1, the JTWC estimated peak 1‑minute winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), before assessing that Bryna began weakening. The storm made landfall in the Sava Region of eastern Madagascar early on January 2 and subsequently crossed the northern portion of the country. Although the JTWC discontinued advisories while Bryna was inland, the MFR continued tracking it, and the circulation emerged into the Mozambique Channel on January 3, moving around a ridge. Bryna curved to the south, brushing Melaky before moving farther offshore.