A month later, the UKMO released its forecast, predicting a slightly above-average season with 14 named storms and 8 hurricanes. It also predicted an ACE index of 125, above the defined average ACE index at 103. On May 27, NOAA issued its first outlook calling for a near-normal season with a 70% chance that 10–16 named storms could form, including 4–8 hurricanes of which 1–4 could reach major hurricane status. NOAA also stated that there is a 45% chance of a near-normal season, 30% chance of an above-normal season and 25% chance of a below-normal season. Also on May 27, TSR substantially increased their forecast numbers, predicting activity would be about 30% above the average with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes and an ACE near 130. The reason for the increased activity forecast was the increased likelihood of La Niña forming during the season in addition to a trend towards a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, which generally favors a warmer tropical Atlantic. TSR predicted that there is a 57% chance that the 2016 Atlantic season would be above-normal, a 33% chance it would be near-normal, and only a 10% chance it would be below-normal. CSU updated their forecast on June 1 to include 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes to include Tropical Storm Bonnie. It was again updated on July 1 to include 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, to accommodate for tropical storms Colin and Danielle. On July 5, TSR released their fourth forecast for the season, slightly lowering the predicted numbers to 16 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. On August 5, TSR released their final forecast for the season, lowering the numbers to 15 named storms and 7 hurricanes due to the influence that La Niña being less than anticipated previously. NOAA updated their forecast on August 11, increasing their predictions to 12–17 named storms, 5–8 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes. The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2016. It was an above average season and the most active since 2012, producing a total of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The first storm, Hurricane Alex, developed on January 12, while the final system, Hurricane Otto, made a crossover to the Eastern Pacific on November 25. The higher-than-normal activity was attributed to many factors. Most significantly, one of the strongest El Niño events recorded in history rapidly dissipated, transforming to cool-neutral conditions across the Pacific in late summer.