Based on numerical simulations, National Oceanography Centre and University of Southampton researcherswho used Lagrangian particle tracking and hindcast circulation from a high-resolution global ocean general circulation model for the period 2006–2015produced a map of the potential contamination area and estimated that the pollution would reach Korean coasts within three months. Using updated simulations based on the sinking location of "Sanchi", the same researchers subsequently estimated that contamination could reach Japan within one month, due to the close proximity of the strong Kuroshio Current. Further updates, based on the suspected, but unconfirmed, arrival of "Sanchi" oil at the island of Amami Ōshima, projected the contamination may reach the Ryukyu Island chain and potentially affect coral reefs there. However, ocean circulation models used by China's State Oceanic Administration in Qingdao showed a different path for the contamination, one that would instead bypass the coastal waters of Japan. "The New York Times" asserts that the environmental damage, including possible contamination of beaches, as well as the damage to the fishing industry, may be significant, and will be paid for by the involved parties and their insurers. A report by CNN stated that the slick grew in size to over by 19 January. The volatile nature of the condensate makes the environmental impact of it different compared with crude oil spills. A report by "Nature" stated that because of this difference, perhaps the more important aspect of this spill is the immediate toxic effect of it on the marine inhabitants, with less concern about deposition of condensate on sediments or polluting beaches.