This year, however, the race was expected to be much tougher for Diaz-Balart, as the Democratic nominee, former Hialeah Mayor Raul L. Martinez (campaign website), is very well known in the area and could be a formidable challenger. CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'Leans Republican'. Rothenberg rated it as 'Pure Toss-Up.' Cook rated it as 'Republican Toss-Up'. Bush won 57% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+6). On May 22, 2008, Diaz-Balart did not attend a debate hosted by the South Florida AFL-CIO with Martinez due to scheduling and venue issues. A July 7 poll conducted by a noted Democratic polster, Sergio Bendixen, showed Diaz-Balart ahead of Martinez by a four-point margin, 41 to 37 percent, with 22 percent undecided. David Hill, the Diaz-Balart brothers' pollster, said Lincoln's internal polling shows the congressman with a 12-point lead over Martinez and a "double-digit advantage over his opponent in virtually every significant segment of the electorate." On August 1, 2008, a leading Washington analyst, Rothenberg Political Report, reported that they see a "possible re-election trouble for Lincoln Diaz-Balart". According to an August 14, 2008 "Time" article, Lincoln Diaz-Balart faces a competitive race. It also said that "Democratic voter registration in Miami-Dade County, as in other places, is up, and Republican registration is down." On August 25, 2008, Lincoln Diaz-Balart agreed to debate Martinez, at a Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce event at noon on October 8. On August 26, 2008, Martinez challenged Diaz-Balart to an additional debate in Denver, Colorado, which both candidates were visiting during the 2008 Democratic National Convention. In a SurveyUSA poll sponsored by Roll Call conducted in August 2008, Martinez led Diaz-Balart (48% to 46%) among likely voters. According to the poll, Diaz-Balart enjoyed 70% support from Cuban-Americans in the district. The poll's demographics (which were chosen by the pollster in 2008) are different from those of the district (based on the US census of 2000.) 51% of those questioned were Hispanic (34% of respondents were Cuban and 17% were non-Cuban). The percentage of Hispanics in the district is higher at 69.7%. Later polls, however, showed Diaz-Balart back in the lead.