What are the results of the base-case analysis?
The base-case analysis found that a threshold of 400pg/ml was the most cost effective NT-proBNP threshold. Results are summarised in Table 15 with regards to costs, QALYs and cost-effectiveness (net monetary benefit, and probability of cost effective at 20,000 per QALY threshold), and Table 16 with regards to ranking of the strategies. A threshold of 400pg/ml produces both the highest incremental QALYs and the highest incremental cost versus echo all, and has the highest net monetary benefit at 20,000 per QALY and is therefore the most cost effective diagnostic threshold for referral to echocardiography. The probability of 400pg/ml being the most cost effective option at 20,000 per QALY is 77%. The mean costs and QALYs from the probabilistic analysis have also been presented graphically on the cost-effectiveness plane in Figure 5.