Jan 23, 2025 update:
Data about undergraduate enrollment has been updated to reflect revised NSC enrollment numbers for Fall 2024.
Jan 15, 2025 update:
This week, the National Student Clearinghouse announced it had miscalculated the number of first-year freshman enrolled in college last fall. The NSC plans to release its full report on Fall 2024 enrollment numbers on January 23, 2025 and we will update our 2025 prediction about adult learners accordingly.
With over a decade in higher education—including my time as a Chief Marketing Officer and now, working with dozens of universities through EAB’s Adult Learner Recruitment initiative—I’ve seen firsthand how quickly the recruitment landscape evolves. A year ago, we predicted that Professional, Continuing and Online (PCO) units would claim the spotlight, AI adoption would evolve from investigation to practice, longer-term marketing would gain traction, and support-focused messaging would be key. While we were close on most of these predictions, a secret shopping exercise showed me that the strategies of slow, long-term marketing and messages focused on student support didn’t take hold the way we thought they would (though we still think these are critically important pieces of adult learner recruitment).
If 2024 was about spotting these trends, 2025 is about turning insights into action. Institutions that take the lessons of last year seriously—and move quickly to adapt—will be the ones that succeed in this rapidly changing environment.
Here is a look back at the key lessons from 2024 and how they’re shaping the strategies institutions will need to succeed in 2025 and beyond.
1. Adult learners are the new majority
Let’s not mince words: adult learners are no longer a “niche” market—they are the market. Last year, we predicted that the professional, continuing, and online student population would surge, and we were partially right. We now believe that adult learners themselves, long the focus of graduate recruitment efforts, are shifting to center stage as the key drivers of growth for undergraduate enrollment. Fall 2024 data from National Student Clearinghouse shows 16.7%-19.7% growth in nontraditional undergraduate students (21+ years of age), with the largest gains in students ages 25-29 years, while traditional freshman enrollment declined 5%, the first drop since 2020. These learners, who are balancing work, family, and education, showed a growing preference for programs that offered flexibility and clear pathways to credentials.
Yet many institutions still aren’t meeting these students where they are. Many schools struggle to effectively engage the 20.3 million adults with “some college, no credential” (SCNC), with only 4% reenrolling. In 2025, universities that prioritize and adapt to this audience’s needs, rethink recruitment strategies, and invest in program design, will hold a competitive edge.
2. AI is moving from experimentation to action
I’ve lost count of how many times AI has been called a “game changer,” but 2024 proved it’s no exaggeration. In higher education, AI moved from a curiosity to a critical tool. Students rapidly adopted AI tools, with 86% using AI platforms for everything from assignments to career planning. Universities began to catch up too, with over 75% of graduate enrollment leaders using AI tools in some capacity.
In 2024, we saw early successes with AI-powered admissions counselors and AI chatbots for univerities, hyper-personalized recruitment campaigns, and search-optimized websites meeting the rise of AI-driven “zero-click” searches. AI relies heavily on public data, so universities should ensure that data showcased on their websites about their programs, including degrees, courses, faculty, application processes, financial aid options, and campus life, are easily accessible, well-documented and regularly updated. And with the help of AI and machine learning, recruitment messages can create unique and engaging experiences for prospective students.
The real challenge for 2025 is scaling these efforts responsibly. AI isn’t just a way to automate processes—it’s an opportunity to create more meaningful, personalized connections with prospective students. But that won’t happen without intentional investment in staff expertise, ethical guidelines, and robust data strategies.
3. New post-election funding landmines
We can’t talk about 2024 without addressing the election and its implications for 2025 and beyond. With the changes to the Department of Education, there will almost certainly be reductions in federal funding and grants fueling financial aid and research. These sweeping changes will shift the burden to institutions to raise money from state or private sources. Programs targeted include the SAVE income-driven repayment program—a lifeline for many graduate students. Public universities in particular will need to brace for federal funding cuts and can expect more state control over funding. Universities in well-resourced states may receive more funding, while others will likely face cutbacks that challenge their abilitly to deliver on affordability and accessibility. As the competition for resources heightens, so will the gap between wealthy and less wealthy institutions.
As the impact of the 2024 election on higher education funding unfolds over the next few months, we will continue to monitor and support institutions through this evolving landscape.
4. The OPM market will continue to soften
For years, Online Program Managers (OPMs) were seen as the golden ticket to scaling online programs. But in recent years, we’ve seen the limitations of the OPM model and threats of federal regulatory oversight. With the recent election, we can expect federal regulatory oversight of OPMs and for-profit colleges through the Department of Education to loosen, leaving states to fill the gap.
Even so, there are several indicators pointing to a softening appetite for OPMs from both investors and universities, including:
New OPM partnerships declined by 56% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same time period in the year prior. The first half of 2024 saw the fewest number of new OPM partnerships in the U.S. since 2020.
In 2023, there were 147 OPM contract terminations across the U.S., a number equal to the total terminations across the three years prior.
Funding for OPM’s has fallen drastically from $750M in the first half of 2022 to $38M In the first half of 2024. This change is impacting OPMs’ ability to invest in the necessary measures to successfully compete in the shifting and highly competitive landscape for the online student.
In 2025, institutions will need to rethink their strategies for scaling online programs. This might include exploring in-house solutions or forging more collaborative, outcome-focused partnerships. What’s certain is that the era of unchecked OPM growth is behind us, and universities must adapt to this new reality.
2024 taught us that higher education is undergoing significant change, and adaptation will be essential moving forward. The rise in adult learners, the rapid integration of AI, and the impact of political and market forces demand a proactive approach. 2025 is the year for institutions to double down on what works. Focus on investing in flexible, accessible programs for adult learners, personalizing messaging to meet students’ evolving needs and preferences, leveraging AI to enhance engagement, and navigating regulatory and market challenges with resilience. The institutions that lean into flexibility, personalization, and innovation will not only keep up, they will lead the way for the future of education marketing.