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"If you take former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown at his word, he is seriously considering a run for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire. If he were to get in now he would enter an already crowded Republican primary field. Given that, Brown might want to spend a little time getting familiar with what happened Tuesday night when a conservative alternative defeated the establishment pick in a primary for Executive Council.No political analogy is perfect, but the storyline here for Brown does follow a parallel track. This special election primary was called after Republican Ray Burton died in office. Burton was the longest serving councilor in state history and he represented 106 cities and towns, covering the northern two-thirds of the state. While few people can describe what an executive councilor actually does, the political realities are real: this was a large, diverse district of all stripes of Republican, like the state.There were three Republican candidates in Tuesday\u2019s primary. There was former Belknap County Commissioner Christopher Boothby, former state Sen. Joe Kenney, and former political operative Mark Aldrich. As you read this, you can substitute these names for the U.S. Senate contest this way: Brown for Boothby, Bob Smith for Kenney and Jim Rubens for Aldrich.During the race Boothby seemed to have everything going for him. He raised by far the most money. He had key endorsements from House Republican Leader Gene Chandler, Senate Republican Leader Jeb Bradley and state Sen. Jeanne Forrester, whose entire district is within this council district. Boothby also had significant establishment support helping to organize the large district, which was helpful given that he basically had never run in the district before. Boothby also was the only one with a significant staff, which included some of the big-time names in the business.Then there was Kenney, whom the establishment basically cut ties with even when he was the Republican nominee for governor in 2008. Kenney got crushed in that contest with the largest loss in the governor\u2019s race in New Hampshire. Kenney was done in politics after that, or so we all thought. Then he organizes one more race and runs to the right.Lastly there is Aldrich, who was liked, but never really had his heart into it. He raised around $100 and said on election night that he realized he had been out of the political game for a while and it would take him longer to re-establish the relationship that he had. He didn\u2019t bother asking for money.Boothby was supposed to walk away from this race with a big win. Sometime last week it became clear to insiders that wasn\u2019t going to happen.When Boothby was asked how he lost when he did everything right he responded, \u201CI guess you have to ask the guy who won.\u201DThe winner was Kenney. Even though he had not been on a ballot in six years he still had a word-of-mouth group of people who thought the system screwed him. He raised just enough to be competitive, bet most of it on television ads on WMUR, and then campaigned hard every day. The biggest boost was the low turnout -- around 6 percent -- on Election Day that made sure conservatives played a disproportionate share of the voters.The results from this race should worry Brown. He could have a lot of establishment help, great staff, all the campaign money he wants, but he could still lose to a candidate like Smith, particularly if turnout is so low. And in the September primary, it will be up to Brown to drive turnout.To be sure, there will be many other factors that will drive a U.S. Senate primary -- media coverage, debates, more television ads -- but the basic advantages and problems Brown will have in a primary are the same one Boothby had Tuesday night. Boothby lost.\u00A0"^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
<http://www.wmur.com/article/analysis-should-scott-brown-be-worried-after-executive-council-primary-results/5187558>