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"Updated Saturday morning......As of late morning, there is a large area of rain over western Indiana.This is moving very slowly east and is weakening.The batch of rain should diminish to nothing by early or mid-afternoon as it moves into less humid air.It may set up a boundary in our area that would allow for some scattered storms to develop later in the afternoon.In the meantime, the storm complex is sending clouds our way. These clouds will thin out a bit as we get into the afternoon hours....For Sunday.... The Storm Prediction Center has a 15% or a slight risk for severe storms for northern Kentucky and central and southern Indiana.SPC says..... HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ASCENT ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND STORM INITIATION. EXPECT ONE OR MORE WEST-EAST BANDS OF CONVECTION TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY BECOMING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.NWS Louisville says.... Given the model differences, there is naturally still some uncertainty in the precipitation evolution with this system. Sounding show quite a bit of instability will be present Sunday night and Monday. In addition, precipitable water values will rise to around two inches. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms look to develop overnight Sunday night into Monday as the front nears and a weak disturbance crosses the area. There is the possibility of MCS development overnight. The most widespread storms overnight look to be across southern IN and north central KY. With the high PWAT values, these storms have the potential to produce torrential rainfall.The highest rain chance will be Sunday night.For Monday, there is another chance for some severe storms. The SPC has lowered our risk from 30% to 15%.SPC says..... ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT...FROM OH WEST-SOUTHWEST TO MO BOOTHEEL. THESE STORMS MAY TAKE ON MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR SOME HAIL/WIND EVENTS. TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO EXIST IF STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AS INDICATED ECMWF WERE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SLGT RISK AREA.That is our area the SPC mentions the tornado risk. If the ECMWF verifies, then the risk levels may go back up again.NWS Louisville says....\u00A0 The evolution of storms overnight and how much convective debris remains on Monday will impact the development of storms Monday afternoon. However, if we are able to clear out or storms overnight are less than expected numerous storms may develop Monday afternoon with strong to severe storms possible. Damaging winds would be the main threat with the strongest storms.Stay tuned to WLKY news..... wlky.com\u00A0 and this blog for further updates throughout the weekend."^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
<http://www.wlky.com/article/updated-severe-numbers-for-sunday-and-monday/3751108>