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"This is the second in a series of \u201CState of the Race\u201D columns, which aims to step away from all the micro-news noise of daily tweets and blog posts you probably missed, to give a snapshot overview on where major races in New Hampshire stand. Every Tuesday this column will highlight one race -- 1st Congressional District, 2nd Congressional District, the U.S. Senate race, the governor\u2019s race and the 2016 New Hampshire Primary. The race rotate every week until Election Day so an update for each race will occur every five or six weeks. Analysis of state House races will be thrown in for good measure.Since this is a first-of-its-kind column, please e-mail with feedback and suggestions with improvements you would like to see at jpindell@hearst.com.District:New Hampshire\u2019s 2nd Congressional District comprises of the Concord, Nashua, Keene and the North Country.Who is running:- Incumbent Democrat Annie Kuster, who won her first term in 2012 after losing a bid for the seat in 2010.- Republican challenger Gary Lambert, of Nashua, served a term in the state Senate.- Republican challenger Marilinda Garcia, of Salem, is serving in her fourth term as a state representative.Current Status:WMUR Political Scoop: Leans DemocratCook Political Report: Leans DemocratRothenberg Political Report: Leans DemocratLarry Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball: Leans DemocratThe State of the Race:Kuster will win re-election unless something dramatic happens.For the past two decades the saying was that once Republican Charlie Bass officially took his name out of contention for this seat, Democrats would control it for a long time. After losing two years ago, Bass isn\u2019t running for only the second time in 20 years.The thinking was demographics made this district become more Democratic leaning. The current Cook Partisan Voting Index says this seat votes three points more Democratic than the average Congressional district. Bass was the last Republican who could consistently swim against this tide. He was a moderate, particularly on social issues and the environment. What also made him unique is that culturally he was a New England patrician, who crunchy liberals along the Connecticut River could relate to and deeply conservative \u201Cguys\u201D in along the Massachusetts border could root for.Unfortunately for the GOP: they don\u2019t make \u2018em like that anymore.In 2010, President Barack Obama was the reason Bass defeated Kuster for this seat. In 2012, Obama was the reason Kuster beat Bass. In 2014, the question is whether Kuster can win despite Obama. Her lackluster Republican challengers hope to simply ride a GOP wave to victory.The moment Kuster emerged on the scene you could tell she was the perfect modern day New Hampshire Congressional candidate. She was connected. She was disciplined. She couldn\u2019t be defeated in a primary. She could did raise a ton of money. She was also willing to scrap out a grassroots campaign.But after two runs at major office and millions in campaign ads repeating her name for good and bad reasons, no one knows what to make of her yet. In the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, 40 percent of voters had not formed an opinion about her. And among those who do know her, more didn\u2019t like her, than liked her.Kuster should be nervous. Even if she changes minds, a lot of people won\u2019t be voting for or against Kuster, but simply for or against a Democrat. The only reason this race isn\u2019t listed as a \u201Clikely Democrat\u201D seat instead of \u201Clean Democrat\u201D is the open question of how badly Obama will hurt Kuster.It appears Obama is hurting her pretty badly. The latest poll shows Kuster statistically tied with Garcia and ahead of Lambert by a few ticks. But since no one knows who these candidates are, these polls don\u2019t mean a lot.Kuster is perceived as ahead in this race because she has built up one of the largest campaign bank accounts of any freshman member, the district\u2019s voting history, and the fact that her two Republican opponents are locked in an intense primary battle that, while interesting, no one cares enough to figure it out.This Republican primary battle is shaping up to be a contest of biography alone. Given that, it\u2019s ironic that no one knows who they are. Garcia has a name ID of 24 percent, while Lambert\u2019s is just 20 percent.When Lambert entered the contest in mid-September the National Republican Congressional Committee was thrilled. They tried to get a lot of press coverage for it. Here you had a life-long Marine, who served in Iraq. He went from working for minimum wage at McDonald\u2019s to pay for college to building up his own law practice. He was also from Nashua, the biggest and most important community in the district in the general election. Also on his resume was defeating an incumbent Democrat state Senator in a district that had been held by Democrats for 94 consecutive years. And he won it the old-fashioned way: he earned it by door knocking and asking for the vote.While Lambert has been eager and willing, it appears he has no idea what he is doing. He does have a lot of call time to raise money, but every quarter he raises less. On a Thursday in April he was going door to door in Nashua\u2019s Ward 3 as if a candidate can door knock their way to victory in a district of 700,000 residents. No one doubts Lambert isn\u2019t working hard. He is. People just wonder if it is doing any good.Meanwhile, conservatives pinned for another option. Their first option, former House Speaker Bill O\u2019Brien filed paperwork to run early in 2013 and and even raised some money, but later dropped out. In his place was an O\u2019Brien protege, Garcia. She was a Republican demographic dream: she was 31 but served four terms in the legislature, had a Harvard degree, was telegenic, a woman and half-hispanic.When Garcia entered the race in late November she had a lot of people\u2019s interest. She has since been a semi-regular on Fox News and spoke to CPAC. But so far Garcia has been sizzle and no steak. On March 31 she had just $58,000 in her bank account.Garcia\u2019s political savior could be if some outside group feels compelled to get involved to help her. She is friendly with those who have ties to the Koch brothers, including her campaign\u2019s general consultant. It is possible they could play in this primary because it would be very cheap and Lambert did support a regional greenhouse gas initiative while in the Senate.The Republicans who care about this race are taking a wait and see approach. Everyone else is just talking about the U.S. Senate contest.The Republican TakeBy former state Senate President Tom Eaton, of Keene:\u201CThe more 2nd District voters get to know about Congresswoman Kuster, her delinquent property taxes on her White Mountain vacation home and her fiscally irresponsible agenda, the less they like. The most recent WMUR/Granite State poll found that the congresswoman\u2019s approval ratings are at an all time low because voters are fed up with her blind support for Obamacare and her willingness to rubber stamp the president\u2019s failed economic policies. Congresswoman Kuster will raise plenty of money from liberal special interest groups, but it won\u2019t change the fact that she is a widely disliked Democrat incumbent who is burdened by President Obama\u2019s dismal record and running in a year that should favor Republicans.\u201DThe Democratic TakeBy Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, of Concord:\u201COn one side you have Annie Kuster, who is both progressive and business friendly. She has extraordinarily deep ties to the district and literally one of the strongest grassroots organizations in the state which has fueled her with what is already a $1.3 million and growing war chest, and solid first term wins she can champion like helping open veterans health centers in Berlin &amp; Colebrook. On the other side: two ideologically &amp; conservative opponents, both of whom have been unable to sustain either the fundraising or grassroots momentum from they announced at their initial campaign launch, and both who want to be the first outright anti-choice Representative of this progressive district in decades. Annie is so much closer to what the people of this district want, I suspect this race won't even be that close by late October.Latest polling(Source: WMUR Granite State Poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, April 2014)Head to head general election matchup:Kuster v. Lambert favorability (as of April 2014): 38% v. 31%Kuster v. Garcia favorability (as of Arpil 2014): 34% v. 33%Net favorability (those who like you minus those who don\u2019t)Kuster (D): -6 percentGarcia (R): +7 percentLambert (R): -2 percentName IDKuster (D): 71 percentGarcia (R): 24 percentLambert (R) : 20 percentLatest fundraising numbers(As of March 31, 2014)Kuster (D)Money Raised: $1,740,228Cash on Hand: $1,371,257Garcia (R)Money Raised: $111,080Cash on Hand: $58,646Lambert (R)Money Raised: $321,176Cash on Hand: $259,814What to watch for: Someone else to get in the race.There is only one month before state\u2019s filing period and four months before the September primary, but the environment is perfect for the right person with some connections, and money to swoop in and take the Republican nomination. There would be little these two Republicans could do to stop a candidate like that. There is also not any talk about someone else getting in.\u00A0"^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
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