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"It's been a popular conversation: Just how unusual is the severe weather event that will likely impact Oklahoma for the next three days? Believe it or not, it's not all that unusual at all. October is known for being a mini-severe weather season for the Sooner state. So, let's break down a couple of thoughts on the risk days here.Click here --&gt; Download our KOCO Tornado App.The Thursday evening risk is mainly for late night, perhaps well past midnight into Friday morning for anyone north of Interstate 40. There will likely be storms developing that could contain hail the size of golf balls and some wind. Heavy rain will also be a factor. However, because this part of the state is dealing with a horrible drought, the heavy rainfall will likely be a wonderful thing.Attention then shifts toward the west for Friday evening.Most models have been very consistent in showing the risk for severe weather Friday beginning during the afternoon hours in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Storms that develop in this area could contain hail, winds and even tornadoes.Click here --&gt; Download our KOCO Tornado App.However, the storm movement will be to the northeast meaning that tornadoes, if they develop, would likely move into Kansas. As the storms begin to reach Northwest Oklahoma, the tornado threat will be diminishing but the hail and wind threat will remain. So, from Cheyenne to Woodward to Alva, be aware Friday evening, especially those planning on attending high school football games.This then takes us into Saturday.Saturday looks to be the biggest severe weather threat of this event. A few thoughts about Saturday and how this event could go in any direction. The NAM model shows storms developing and moving east moving into Tulsa around 6 p.m.The model has some rain with it, not a ton, and is considered the driest model I have looked at. The GFS model is somewhat slower and is very wet for all locations east of Interstate 35 and Interstate 44 (H.E. Bailey Turnpike). This model seems to be favored as is the Euro model that too is very wet.As seen above, we're talking about a healthy dose of rainfall for the state.So, my thoughts on this event can be summed up like this: Severe storms are not out of the question for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Keep in mind that Thursday's threat is mostly for this evening, and Friday's threat is mostly for the Panhandle and Northwest Oklahoma. Much of the state does not have the possibility for severe weather until Saturday. The tornado risk is not zero, but it's not very high either for the main body of Oklahoma.The worst of the storm system may impact areas in Missouri, eastern Kansas and Illinois.Click here --&gt; Download our KOCO Tornado App.Footer Weather"^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
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