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"Thirty may be the new 20 for yuppies, but when it comes to computing, three decades is several lifetimes. When you think about the Mac\u2019s multiple architecture changes and software transitions throughout the years, the long-standing feline theme on OS X actually seems rather fitting.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nAfter marking the history of the Mac and its impact on personal computing last week for the 30th anniversary, we\u2019re taking a look at its future. We spoke with some of the original team members of the Macintosh project and two long-time Apple analysts to get their thoughts on the fate of the Mac.\r\n\r\nMacworld\u2019s Jason Snell recently asked some of Apple\u2019s top executives to reflect on the future of the Mac. Phil Schiller, the firm\u2019s Senior Vice President of worldwide marketing, said:\r\nThere is a super-important role [for the Mac] that will always be. We don\u2019t see an end to that role. There\u2019s a role for the Mac as far as our eye can see. A role in conjunction with smartphones and tablets, that allows you to make the choice of what you want to use. Our view is, the Mac keeps going forever, because the differences it brings are really valuable.\r\nApple, at least publicly, remains supremely confident in the long-term future of the Mac, and we\u2019d expect nothing less from a marketing executive. However, the world is transitioning to mobile computing, and the Mac will have to adapt.\r\n\r\nSteve Jobs predicted in 2010 shortly after the release of the original iPad that PCs would transition to specialized tools for a small subset of the population. Speaking at AllThingsD\u2019s D8 conference, he said:\r\nPCs are going to be like trucks. They\u2019re still going to be around, they\u2019re still going to have a lot of value, but they\u2019re going to be used by one out of X people. \u2026 I think that we\u2019re embarked on that. Is the next step the iPad? Who knows? Will it happen next year or five years from now or seven years from now? Who knows? But I think we\u2019re headed in that direction.\r\nIn its most recent quarter, Apple still managed 19 percent year-over-year growth in its Mac division. However, even if the company manages to continue to grow Mac market share, it\u2019s doing so in a shrinking market. Gartner recently estimated that PC shipments fell 6.9 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2013.\r\n\r\nBy comparison, Apple\u2019s iPad sales were up 13.5 percent year-over-year to 26 million during the same period. That\u2019s almost as many shipments as the estimated 28.4 million PCs shipped by both Lenovo and HP, the top two PC makers, during Q4 2013.\r\n\r\nApple correctly predicted, and pioneered, the arrival of the smartphone and the tablet categories over the past few years. But as the PC industry contracts, it has to figure out what to do with the Mac.\r\n\r\nNext up: ARM? | View on one page\r\n\r\nARM?\r\nOne of the biggest questions about the future of the Mac is whether it will remain on Intel indefinitely or switch over to the ARM architecture that powers Apple\u2019s iOS devices.\r\n\r\nWhen we spoke to original Mac team member Andy Hertzfeld about the future of the Mac, he speculated that a switch to ARM is coming.\r\nThe Mac certainly has a future, but clearly it no longer is at the forefront of technology, innovation, or evolution. It\u2019s been superseded. Apple is the company that superseded it with the iOS platform, the iPhone and the iPad. Especially the iPad, it\u2019s taking more and more and more of the user\u2019s time away from the Macintosh platform.\r\n\r\nSoon, it\u2019s obvious, might even be in 2014, it will merge with iOS. It won\u2019t make sense to maintain two once the newer thing gets powerful enough, and it\u2019s already there with a 64-bit processor. Pretty soon you\u2019ll see Macs and iPads come together, and then what will you call it?\r\nHertzfeld noted that computing has followed an obvious trend going back to the days of mainframes where it got progressively smaller, more personal and intimate. The smartphone is a prime example of that, and the coming tide of wearables is the next step.\r\n\r\n\u201CTen years is an epoch in the technology industry. The Macintosh in the course of its history didn\u2019t stick with a processor architecture more than 10 years,\u201D Hertzfeld continued, citing the company\u2019s shifts from Motorola 68k to PowerPC and then to Intel.\r\n\r\nTim Bajarin, President at tech research firm\u00A0Creative Strategies,\u00A0on the other hand, believes Apple will keep the two operating systems separate.\r\n\r\n&amp;quot;The Mac/OS X is the power OS. iOS is the evolutionary OS, to expand what they can do with tablets and smartphones,\u201D he said.\r\n\r\nIn the aforementioned Macworld interview, Apple\u2019s executives have decried the notion that iOS and OS X will converge into a single operating system.\r\n\r\n\u201CTo say [OS X and iOS] should be the same, independent of their purpose? Let\u2019s just converge, for the sake of convergence? [It\u2019s] absolutely a non-goal,\u201D Apple\u2019s SVP of software engineering Craig Federighi told the publication.\r\n\r\nHowever, Apple didn\u2019t specifically rule out a switch to ARM. While it\u2019s a given that PCs and mobile devices have separate use cases that should be treated differently, switching Macs to ARM would allow the Mac to more easily tap into the thriving app ecosystem that has built up around the iPhone and iPad. Let\u2019s be honest, the Mac App Store is kind of a downer. Sure, some developers have seen success with it, but it has hardly attracted the kind of momentum that the App Store has.\r\n\r\nApple already underwent an app transition with the iPhone and the iPad through the addition of universal apps that work on both devices, so it\u2019s proven that it can do it. Personally, I\u2019d love to see Apple pull the App Store out of the bloated OS X version of iTunes and combine it with the (Mac) App Store app. Developers would have to address some issues with non-touch interfaces and different resolutions, but the alternative is to simply allow the iPad\u2019s remarkable software catalogue to continue overshadowing the Mac.\r\n\r\nThe company has also already proven that it can weather an architecture transition smoothly. When the Mac moved to Intel in 2005 and 2006, Apple implemented universal binaries and its Rosetta emulation software to move things along while offering legacy support for PowerPC applications on Intel.\r\n\r\nWhile ARM processors have tended to lag behind Intel in terms of raw desktop-class performance as a tradeoff for significantly better power management, I believe ARM has a better chance of figuring out how to extend onto desktop PCs than Intel does breaking into mobile.\r\n\r\nIt\u2019s also worth noting that Apple was one of the original founders of ARM Holdings. It formed the company in an effort to get mobile chips for its ill-fated Newton PDA project. When Steve Jobs returned to Apple in the late 1990s, he sold off its stake in ARM to get enough cash to stage a comeback.\r\n\r\nIn a sense, ARM saved the Mac, and it may be primed to do it again.\r\n\r\nApple has, in recent years, taken a more active role in creating its own ARM chips, and it is believed to have redirected former SVP of Technologies Bob Mansfield to a \u201Cspecial projects\u201D role that includes chipset design.\r\n\r\nWhat would be more special than a desktop-class Apple ARM chip? Apple\u2019s fancy marketing team could even call it A10 to match OS X, which is pronounced OS 10 by the Mac faithful.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nEven on its own, ARM performance is approaching desktop levels. The A7 chip included in Apple\u2019s latest iPhone and iPad is clocked at 1.3-1.4 GHz with a dual-core CPU, while the latest low-end MacBook Airs are also specced at dual-core 1.3GHz. That\u2019s not an exact \u201Capples to apples\u201D comparison (pun intended), but it\u2019s not much of a stretch to imagine Apple creating its own high-performance ARM chip powerful enough to power at least the MacBook Air.\r\n\r\nCarl Howe, Vice President at the\u00A0Yankee Group\u00A0research firm,\u00A0noted in an interview:\r\nApple isn\u2019t afraid to throw away its history. It makes clean breaks every now and then. What it means is they have a more secure platform because they don\u2019t have to carry around legacy hardware. The Mac is a more open platform and a more vulnerable platform, than my iPad.\u00A0Switching to ARM is a pretty good idea\u2026The question is, can they deliver the performance? Is it worth the hassle of going through another processor transition?\r\nApple worked on the Intel version of OS X for years before releasing it. The company may very well be doing the same with ARM while it waits for the right time to switch.\r\n\r\nWhen I say that Apple\u2019s products are ripe for convergence, it doesn\u2019t mean that Apple should treat Macs the same as iPhones. I\u2019m simply suggesting that the confusing gaps between the product lines due to architecture differences and limited screen sizes could be minimized with the help of a couple of those elegant workarounds that Apple has become known for.\r\n\r\nNext up: Apple's product quadrant\u00A0|\u00A0View on one page\r\n\r\nApple\u2019s product quadrant\r\nTo get a better sense of the future of the Mac, it\u2019s helpful to look back at its rebirth in 1998. When Steve Jobs introduced the iMac, he explained the four components of the company\u2019s product strategy as such:\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nCarl Howe put it this way: Apple makes two types of devices (portable and desktop) for two types of audiences (professional and consumer).\r\n\r\nThat strategy has continued to this day. The new Mac Pro is a bold re-commitment on Apple\u2019s part to the pro desktop, while the iMac remains its consumer offering. The MacBook Pro serves as its high-end portable, while the MacBook Air is more affordable.\r\n\r\niOS isn\u2019t likely to cannibalize the desktop consumer and pro quadrants anytime soon. \u201CI think the Mac will live on for years as a professional device,\u201D Howe told us.\r\n\r\nHowever, that chart could be recast with iPhones and iPads filling in the portable quadrants. Many iPads are offsetting notebook purchases, and if the rumored iPad Pro comes to pass, it could start to account for professional portable purchases as well.\r\n\r\nIt\u2019s a mobile world now, and the Mac is living in it. Daniel Kottke, one of Apple\u2019s first employees, said in an interview last week that, when he reflected on the rise of mobile devices, \u201Cit's like the 30th anniversary of the Mac is happening as it\u2019s passing into history.\u201D\r\n\r\n\u201CI wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see iOS take over,\u201D he added. \u201CDesktop computing is always going to be required because there's times when you need to type a lot of stuff, you need more power. But, in general, it's all going toward mobile: iPhone, iPads, things that we carry with us.\u201D\r\n\r\nNext up: A Window to the future\u00A0|\u00A0View on one page\r\n\r\nA Window to the future\r\nAs Cook pointed out, the Mac still has plenty of room for growth even within the shrinking PC market. The future of the Mac is closely linked with the future of Windows. If Microsoft is unable to convince others to buy into its cross-interface vision for Windows 8.1, Apple will have an opportunity to quickly seize market share.\r\n\r\nRandy Wigginton, the creator of the original MacWrite program, said in an interview:\r\nI think that with the failure of Windows recently, Microsoft seems very confused about where they want to go, so I think that\u2019s actually helping the Macintosh. Windows took off when the Macintosh had no idea where to go.\r\nTim Bajarin predicts that PCs will continue to be the workhorse for businesses for at least another decade.\r\n\r\n\u201CThe actual market for PCs has peaked. We\u2019re not going to see growth years in the 5 percent range ever again, but having said that they\u2019re still an important creation tool in business and education, especially higher education,\u201D he said.\r\n\r\nBajarin added that his firm expects customers in developing markets to use smartphones as a gateway to computing:\r\nHuman nature is one that once you start using something like a smartphone or even a cheap tablet, you start saying to yourself, \u2018I want more. I want to do this, I want to do that.\u2019 One of the ways I think about the smartphone, is I think they\u2019re training wheels for the next level of computing needs.\r\n\r\nOur conclusion through our research is there are a lot of people who have smartphones where that will be their only computing device, but there will be a huge bump of people who have smartphones who want more. The big question to us is, \u2018What is 'more' going to be?\u2019 We\u2019ve ruled out traditional PCs and laptops, we just think their form factor is not going to drive growth for this next billion users. Instead, we think it\u2019s going to be some form of touchscreen system with larger screens.\r\nThere's nothing stopping such a device from being branded as a Mac, but Apple has so far resisted adding touch functionality to the Mac product line. When asked about combining the interfaces between OS X and iOS, Craig Federighi recently told\u00A0Macworld:\r\nIt\u2019s obvious and easy enough to slap a touchscreen on a piece of hardware, but is that a good experience? We believe, no.\r\nAs it stands, it looks like the iPad will drive Apple\u2019s future growth. Most of us grew up on keyboards and mice, so we are most competent on PCs.\r\n\r\nHowever, we are quickly becoming a legacy generation. Today\u2019s kids have cut their teeth, sometimes literally, on touchscreens. When toddlers get their hands on a Mac, they think it\u2019s broken because it doesn\u2019t respond when they touch the screen.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nIn 10 to 20 years, the touchscreen generation will start to become Apple customers on their own. They\u2019ll be more familiar with virtual keyboards than physical ones, more comfortable with swiping than mouse clicks. Apple could, of course, come up with a new, even better input method, like touchless gestures or thought-controlled interfaces, but if it insists on preserving the keyboard and the mouse, the Mac will be in danger of being relegated to museums and geriatric centers.\r\n\r\nFor his part, Apple CEO Tim Cook has accepted the fact that the Mac will face some cannibalization from the iPad. Last January, he remarked on the fiscal Q1 2013 earnings call (via\u00A0Seeking Alpha):\r\nIn terms of cannibalization and how we think about this, I see cannibalization as a huge opportunity for us. One, our base philosophy is to never fear cannibalization. If we do, somebody else will just cannibalize it and so we never fear it\u2026We know that iPad will cannibalize some Macs; that doesn\u2019t worry us. On iPad in particular, we have the mother of all opportunities here, because the Windows market is much, much larger than the Mac market is\u2026And as you know, I have said for two or three, actually three years now I believe that I believe the tablet market will be larger than the PC market at some point. And I still believe that.\r\nIn order to keep up with consumer\u2019s evolving needs, Apple will need to continue innovating on serving the specialized use cases that the Mac can do better than the iPad, while improving its tablet line so that it better satisfies the mainstream.\r\n\r\nI\u2019m probably not in the majority here, but I haven\u2019t owned a desktop PC for over ten years. However, with the advent of the iPad, I\u2019m actually considering moving away from a notebook, switching back to a desktop and relying on a tablet for portability. There are still a couple features, like a windowed multitasking solution, that I need from an iPad to make it feasible for working while traveling or at events, but it\u2019s very close to ideal.\r\n\r\nIn fact, features like cellular connectivity, longer battery life and the ability to use it while holding in my hands make the iPad better than a MacBook in many situations, assuming that I also have a Bluetooth keyboard on hand for extended typing.\r\n\r\nNext up: What's in a Mac?\u00A0|\u00A0View on one page\r\n\r\nWhat\u2019s in a Mac?\r\nIn discussing the future of the Mac, it\u2019s worth thinking about what makes a Mac\u2026 a Mac.\r\n\r\nReminiscing on the original Mac launch, Howe\u00A0described the concepts behind it as \u201Cbreaking the mold\u201D of Apple\u2019s own personal computer experience up to that point.\r\nIt was the first computer that was a turnkey device. You brought it home, you plugged it in and you turned it on. It did something. To me, that\u2019s the first thing that comes to mind: the concept that not everyone wants to be a build-it-yourself computer person.\r\n\r\nThe real legacy [of the Mac] looking into the future is this idea that a computer is not a big ecosystem of piece parts, it\u2019s a self-contained device that has defined interactions with the outside world,\u201D he added. \u201CI think you\u2019ll see new types of products that follow the same mold: neat interface, closed system, works with all of your other stuff, and it\u2019s an appliance, it does something really well.\r\nFor Howe, that type of product could be a wearable device, such as a watch or an earpiece for Siri.\r\n\r\n\u201CYou don\u2019t get there by saying, \u2018How do we make a better laptop?\u2019\u201D he said.\r\n\r\nWhile the Mac\u2019s importance to Apple\u2019s bottom line will continue to diminish over time, the originating principles of the Mac: a revolutionary interface, closed system, and consumer-friendly approach, will continue to inform Apple\u2019s future products. The Mac already lives on in the iPhone and the iPad, and its influence will be evident in whatever \u201Cnew product categories\u201D Apple has cooking for later this year.\r\n\r\nNext up: Knowledge Navigator\r\n\r\nKnowledge Navigator\r\nTim Bajarin was seated in the third row of Jobs\u2019 original 1984 Macintosh unveiling.\r\n\r\n\u201C[Jobs] was in a double-breasted suit with a bow-tie and this gigantic smile on his face, and with his rather bombastic stage style, he pulled the cover off the Mac and the Mac said, \u2018Hello,\u2019\u201D Bajarin recalled.\r\n\r\nThat presentation is credited as the moment when the graphical user interface and the mouse were introduced to the mainstream, but Bajarin also sees Apple\u2019s Knowledge Navigator concept as the second influential impact that the Mac had on computing.\r\n\r\nThe Knowledge Navigator video, which was created in 1987 to highlight Apple\u2019s 20-year plan for the Mac, shows a Berkeley professor talking naturally with a virtual assistant on a touchscreen tablet and video chatting with a colleague. The video was set in September 16, 2011. Interestingly enough, Apple had each of the necessary technological components (the iPad, Siri and FaceTime) of the Knowledge Navigator in place by October 2011.\r\n\r\n\u201CWhat [former Apple CEO] John Sculley did with the Knowledge Navigator was he took a lot of the basic principles of desktop computing and the graphical interface and he gave us a vision of the future,\u201D Bajarin said.\r\n\r\nApple didn\u2019t manage to fully realize its 1987 vision for the future, but it did come uncannily close. Today\u2019s natural language processing and artificial intelligence aren\u2019t quite as effective as Knowledge Navigator expected them to be, but the touchscreen, form factor and design have all advanced even farther than anticipated.\r\n\r\nNext up: The Mac Pro\r\n\r\nThe Mac Pro\r\n\r\n\r\nA current discussion of the Mac\u2019s future would be woefully incomplete without discussing the late 2013 Mac Pro. In its 30th anniversary Mac timeline, Apple described the machine as one for \u201Ccreating the future.\u201D\r\n\r\n\u201CThe new Mac Pro isn\u2019t just a big leap forward, it\u2019s a huge change in direction. It takes the most advanced technologies available today and puts them together like no computer before it,\u201D the company stated.\r\n\r\nVisually, the Mac Pro is the biggest departure since the arrival of the first iMac. It leaves behind over 10 years of design language, trading in angles for curves and silver aluminum for black. Cylindrical MacBooks probably don\u2019t make the most sense, but we\u2019d love to see a Mac notebook in black again.\r\n\r\nAs the previous generation Mac Pro languished without updates, speculation arose that Apple could actually just kill off the line because of how small the segment is to its overall business. By refreshing the Mac Pro at the end of last year, Apple reaffirmed its commitment to professional-grade desktop computing. The principles behind Apple\u2019s new tower should carry the Mac well into the next decade.\r\n\r\nOn its product site, Apple says it reconsiderered everything that defines a pro computer: \u201Cgraphics, storage, expansion, processing power, and memory.\u201D\r\n\r\nWhen I asked what he thought of the new machine, Andy Hertzfeld said he loves it \u201Cas a work of art,\u201D while noting that the setup doesn\u2019t quite feel finished because it lacks an Apple-made 4K display to accompany it. 4K will start first with the Mac Pro, but as high-resolution display prices come down, we expect to see a 4K Thunderbolt Display and an Ultra-HD compatible iMac added to the lineup.\r\n\r\nThe new Mac Pro also represents a shift toward heavier reliance on GPUs, which makes sense given that it\u2019s meant to appeal to graphics and video professionals. The machine packs two AMD FirePro GPUs for double the fun.\r\n\r\nApple has also continued its mission to push the traditional hard-disk drive into obsolescence. Flash storage is still too expensive for the company\u2019s consumer desktops, but pros can spring for the advanced PCIe flash storage on the Mac Pro. It\u2019ll take a while for the technology to make its way to the iMac, though, as a 512GB solid-state drive costs an additional $300 on top of the standard 256GB drive, while 1TB costs a hefty $800 more.\r\n\r\nExpandability on the Mac is quickly becoming an external, rather than an internal, affair. Apple set the stage for it when it picked the Thunderbolt standard, and the Mac Pro drives it home. The company doesn\u2019t want you adding much to the inside of its tightly-packed cylinder. Instead, it aims for you to connect peripherals through the Mac Pro\u2019s many ports. With the machine\u2019s six Thunderbolt 2 ports, you can daisy chain up to 36 devices, including three 4K displays.\r\n\r\nApple is also returning to its roots with the Mac Pro by producing it in the US, as it once did with its early computers. While the Mac may be relegated to third fiddle behind iPhone and iPad, its smaller production numbers allow Apple to begin pursuing a Made in America initiative for its desktops.\r\n\r\nNext up: Conclusion\r\n\r\nConclusion\r\nAs the Mac turns 30, it\u2019s in the best shape it\u2019s ever been in, but the PC industry itself faces an uncertain future. Apple is flush with cash and has a well-oiled leadership team that will help it achieve its future potential.\u00A0Future Macs will extend deeper into their roles as specialized professional devices as our smartphones and tablets fill most of our everyday personal computing needs.\r\n\r\nWe think it makes sense for Apple to transition Macs over to the ARM architecture in order to create better vertical synergy with its increasingly important iOS products. I can\u2019t speak directly to the numerous technical challenges that would accompany such a transition, but Apple has proved in the past that it can handle one smoothly with minimal disruption to the end user.\r\n\r\nWhile the Mac branding has remained, the truth is that, in many ways, the iPhone and iPad embody the original spirit of the Macintosh even more so than today\u2019s Macs do. In our conversation with Daniel Kottke, he recalled an early Apple retreat where the company\u2019s vision was to make computers \u201Cthat you\u2019ll take to bed with you.\u201D Those of us who use our iPhones as alarm clocks and check our notifications as the first thing in the morning and last thing at night know all too well how successful Apple has been.\r\n\r\nMore than 25 years ago, Apple produced a bold vision of the future with its Knowledge Navigator concepts. Those ideas have come mostly to fruition through products like the iPad, Siri and FaceTime.\u00A0Calling the iPad the future of the Mac might seem paradoxical, but it\u2019s hard to deny once you\u2019ve compared the latest PC and tablet sales figures.\u00A0Steve Jobs himself described something like the iPad in 1983 while contemplating the future of the Mac:\r\nApple\u2019s strategy is really simple. What we want to do is we want to put an incredibly great computer in a book that you can carry around with you and learn how to use in 20 minutes.\r\nJobs wasn\u2019t the only one to come up with the idea of a book-like computer, but he was certainly one of the few to make it a reality.\r\n\r\nIn 1996, prior to returning to Apple, Jobs declared:\r\n\u00A0If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it\u2019s worth\u2013and get busy on the next great thing. The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago.\r\nHe proceeded to do exactly that, first by revitalizing the Mac line with the iMac, and then by creating the iPod, iPhone and iPad.\r\n\r\nApple\u2019s current executives' insistence that the Mac \u201Ckeeps going forever\u201D may be overzealous marketing speak, but the innovative spirit of the Macintosh should have no problem continuing well into the future across the Mac, iPhone, iPad and, hopefully, much-anticipated new product categories like wearables.\r\n\r\nSee also:\u00A030 years in 33 photos: A visual history of the Apple Mac\u00A0and\u00A0What to expect from Apple in 2014: A new product category and the beginnings of convergence\r\n\r\nImage credits: Justin Sullivan\u00A0/ Getty Images, All About Apple\u00A0/\u00A0Wikimedia,\u00A0Justin Sullivan\u00A0/ Getty Images, peestandingup / YouTube,\u00A0Justin Sullivan\u00A0/ Getty Images"^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
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