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" I know I&amp;#039;m supposed to feel good about the idea that there may be a price to pay for taking a dive on the diluted Manchin-Toomey proposal to do something about this country&amp;#039;s insane attraction to its firearms. And, for Kelly Ayotte, in purplish New Hampshire, there even may be significant longterm consequences, which will give sadz to John McCain and Lindsey Graham because the S.S. Dive For The Spotlight will be deprived of a Cruise Director. However, I can&amp;#039;t count these numbers as any kind of sea change. Seriously, does anyone honestly believe that Jeff Flake is going to be replaced by anyone whose position on guns it to Flake&amp;#039;s left? In Arizona? The same goes for Mark Begich and Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. To make these numbers translate into political reality, you have to show me how they help a pro-background-checks primary opponent dislodge an incumbent or, failing that, how gun-control will be so salient an issue in two years that someone could win a Senate race in Arizona or Alaska by taking all the positions on this issue of which the likes of Flake or Begich were afraid this time around. It pains me to say it, but the air is out of this issue as a stand-alone issue right now. The only way it can gather power is as an important element in a general critique of Republican governance and of conservative policies as being generally bad for the nation. The votes on gun laws have to be made an example of something greater, and not just a single egregious flouting of the people&amp;#039;s will. (Which is not to say that Harry Reid shouldn&amp;#039;t still have Heidi Heitkamp&amp;#039;s desk moved to the sidewalk. He should.) This may be what&amp;#039;s going on, for example, with Rob Portman. Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), whose national profile rose last year after he emerged as a possible running mate to GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, has seen an 18-point drop to his approval rating in the last six months, according to PPP. In October, 35 percent of Buckeye State voters said they approved of Portman while a quarter said they disapproved. Today, his approval rating is under water: 26 percent said they approve of his job performance in PPP&amp;#039;s latest, while 34 percent said they disapprove. Fortunately for Portman, a plurality of 39 percent of voters there said his vote against background checks will make no difference on whether or not they support his next re-election bid in 2016, although 36 percent said it is now less likely that they will back him.  This vote has to be made into another reason not to vote for these guys -- and for the Democrats who made common cause with them -- and that&amp;#039;s a longer, harder sell. Nobody in Arizona is going to lose an election simply because they&amp;#039;re not pro-gun-control enough.Not any time soon, anyway. "^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
<http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a18329/the-gun-poll/>