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"A War Is Brewing\nAs violence hits a critical level in eastern Ukraine, Russia waits patiently at the doorstep.\n\nby Christopher Miller   \nAugust 2, 2014\n\nKIEV, Ukraine - The conflict in eastern Ukraine has escalated to its most critical level yet, with Russia giving signs that experts say show it is closer than ever before to invading and waging a full-scale war against its Slavic neighbor.\nIn the past week, Russia has deployed thousands of troops and combat vehicles, and advanced multiple launch rocket systems along its western border, according to Ukrainian and U.S. officials.\nRussia\u2019s Defense Ministry has denied the allegations, and instead said it was Ukraine that has intensified actions along its border.\nMashable could not verify the authenticity of the video below, but it purports to show Russian armored vehicles, military trucks and helicopters staging near the Ukrainian border.\nIn another video\u00A0from Thursday, a column of Russian armored vehicles appears to roll through the town of Gukovo, Rostov region, near the border to Ukraine.\nNATO military commander General Philip Breedlove said on Wednesday that the number of Russian troops and weaponry massing along the border with Ukraine is increasing and is already \u201Cwell over 12,000.\u201D\n\u201CWe watch the materials move from inside the central military district in Russia to the area of Rostov, where they are assembled, then meet, train and move towards the border, and we see them across the border,\u201D he reportedly said\u00A0during a press conference after visiting NATO troops in Kosovo.\nReuters quoted\u00A0Tony Blinken, a national security adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama, as saying the \u201Csignificant rebuild-up of Russian forces along the border\u201D may be preparations \u201Cfor a so-called humanitarian or peacekeeping intervention in Ukraine.\u201D\nMoscow has spoken on several occasions of the possibility of sending peacekeepers to eastern Ukraine to ensure the safety of ethnic Russians, much to the dismay of Kiev.\nThere is no need to send peacekeepers \u2013- least of all Russian peacekeepers \u2013- to eastern Ukraine, Valeriy Chaly, deputy chief of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko\u2019s staff, said in a statement\u00A0posted to the presidential website Wednesday.\nPro-Russian rebels ride their APC and truck as they celebrate Paratroopers' Day in the city of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine Saturday, Aug. 2, 2014.\nDMITRY LOVETSKY/ASSOCIATED PRESS\nRussian military helicopters carried out ground-fire exercises on Friday in the country\u2019s Rostov region, which borders Ukraine\u2019s eastern Donetsk region. At the same time, Russian combat aircraft and helicopters violated Ukraine\u2019s airspace, flying as far as 10 miles across the border, according to Andriy Lysenko, spokesperson for the Information and Analytical Center of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council. \u201CIn particular, the flights of four Ka-52 attack helicopters from the side of the Russian Federation were recorded yesterday,\u201D he told reporters at a briefing in Kiev.\nSome may argue that the war has already started. On Thursday, officials in both Kiev and Washington reported that Russia had bombarded Ukrainian forces with artillery fire from Russian territory. Previously, the U.S. released images it said proved Russia had fired into Ukraine. Moscow responded by saying the images were doctored.\nOn Friday, reports indicated the Ukrainians and Russians exchanged rocket fire across the border; both have blamed each other in the past for doing so. In one case, Russia said a rocket fired from Ukraine struck a home on Russian soil, killing a man and injuring two women.\u201CWe\u2019re at the point where Moscow is continuing to ratchet up its support for the insurgents.\u201DA Russian combat helicopter spreads anti missile flares during a military drill outside the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on August 1, 2014. \nANDREY KRONBERG/AFP/Getty Images\nMark Galeotti, a Russian security services expert and global affairs professor at New York University, told Mashable by phone that Russia\u2019s moves were indicative of pre-invasion preparation, but he emphasized that Ukraine and Russia are not yet engaged in all-out war.\n\u201CRussian planes would be hammering Ukrainian bases and such,\u201D he said. \u201CWe\u2019re at the point where Moscow is continuing to ratchet up its support for the insurgents.\u201D\nBut the decision point for Moscow will likely come in August, said Galeotti, \u201Cwhich is also coincidentally one of the high points of Russian military capability, because of the cycle of the [military] draft.\u201D\nIt is also the same time of year when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. Back then, Russia moved troops to the border, and flew warplanes over Georgian territory. (Russian jets have also on several occasions in past months violated Ukrainian airspace, according to officials in Kiev.) Shortly after, Russia carried out airstrikes in South Ossetia before moving tanks and troops through South Ossetia and into Georgia.\nOlexiy Melnyk, co-director for foreign relations and international security programs at the Kiev-based Razumkov Centre, told Mashable that the military exercises announced this week \u201Cgives us huge concern about an escalating crisis and escalating aggression by Russia\u2019s military.\u201D\nMelnyk also pointed to the Georgian scenario that seems to be playing out. And like Galeotti, he said Ukraine and Russia aren\u2019t quite at all-out war. \u201CIt\u2019s still like testing grounds. But I wouldn\u2019t rule out that one day Putin will task his forces to either launch a massive attack from the Russian territory using artillery, airpower to attack Ukrainian forces. Or, he will task the so-called peacekeepers to cross the border and take over \u2026 not only Luhansk and Donetsk territories, but across a wider area,\u201D he said.\n\u201CBut signs of military exercises is a classic first step of aggression,\u201D Melnyk said. \u201CExercises, then after a couple of days or weeks, [troops] get the order to move in.\u201D\n\u00A0      A War Is Brewing         by Christopher Miller\n                                            Share                Tweet                                                                                          "^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
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