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"Over the past several months, there has been a lot of hype about an upcoming El Ni\u00F1o event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which would upend global weather patterns in ways that might squelch the California drought and lead to a record warm year worldwide. \nEl Ni\u00F1o conditions are characterized by above average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, as well as changes in the trade winds that typically blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific. In addition, there are changes to where towering thunderstorms form across the tropics, with a shift in heavy rains away from the western Pacific.\nSee also: 13 Best Weather Apps to Take Your Day by Storm\nDespite the fact that sea surface temperatures are above average in some of the right spots in the Pacific, El Ni\u00F1o conditions are not quite mature enough to declare it \"here\" yet. This is partly the ocean's fault and partly the atmosphere's.\nCome on, get it together, guys.\n\nSea surface temperatures show above average water in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is a sign of an El Nino.Image:  NOAA/ESRLThe formation of El Ni\u00F1o is a lot like a first date. There's nervous conversation between the air and the ocean, both of them showing a hypersensitivity to each other's words. If the mood isn't right, there won't be a second date or a third. But every once in a while (in this case, every three to seven years), things click \u2014 and they last for a year or two before breaking up again. \nIn this case, the ocean knows what it wants, but the atmosphere is playing hard to get.\nClimate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) said on Thursday that they still anticipate an El Ni\u00F1o event will take place within the next six months or so, with the odds of one peaking at 82% for the November through January time frame. \n\nThe evolution of a strong Kelvin Wave, transporting warm water from west to east across the Pacific (right to left). Note the cooler ocean temperatures in the western Pacific in the bottom image, which shows the lack of another Kelvin Wave.Image:  Australian Bureau of MeteorologyStephen Baxter, a forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, says the latest observations show there has been \u201Ca little bit of a slowdown in what we were thinking would occur in terms of an El Ni\u00F1o developing.\u201D\nThe problem, Baxter says, is that while the sea surface temperatures are above average across much of the tropical Pacific, the atmospheric signs of an El Ni\u00F1o have not yet shown up. Such signs includes increased thunderstorm activity in the central tropical Pacific and reduced or reversed trade winds.\n\nTypical winter weather pattern across North America during an El Nino event.Image:  NOAAThe Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which also closely monitors El Ni\u00F1o development, says the ocean has slowed down its warming trend. Areas of warmer than average water temperatures in the western Pacific, near Indonesia, are also atypical for an El Ni\u00F1o, the Bureau said in an update on Tuesday. \n\nMT @egawthrop: #IRIforecast bottom line: ocean looks like #ElNi\u00F1o, atmosphere doesn't, models still call for El Ni\u00F1o.pic.twitter.com/Olkk1C8vAf\n\u2014 IRI (@climatesociety) June 19, 2014\n\nHowever, that may be changing. \n\"There is some indication that the atmosphere has become a little more responsive,\" Baxter said. One indication of a developing El Ni\u00F1o is a burst of westerly winds, which can in turn cause a ripple of warmer than average water to slosh from the western Pacific to the east side, jump-starting an event. This is known as a Kelvin Wave, and it happened this past spring, but it has not happened since.\n\u201CThere is some potential over the next few weeks that we could have at least a weak westerly wind burst,\u201D Baxter added. Furthermore, even without another westerly wind burst, which could induce another Kelvin Wave, the atmosphere and ocean system \"is still on track toward the development of El Ni\u00F1o,\u201D he said.\nYet Baxter, as well as the IRI and Bureau of Meteorology all cautioned against thinking that the El Ni\u00F1o will be an intense one. Baxter, in a call with reporters on Thursday, said the Climate Prediction Center \"hasn't been kind\" to the view that there will be a strong El Ni\u00F1o.\n\nEquatorial upper ocean heat anomalies (deg C) during the past several months, showing a Kelvin Wave (outlined by the parallel lines) and lack of warm water moving from the western Pacific to the east recently (circled).Image:  NOAA/CPCEl Ni\u00F1o watchers are keeping a close eye on the updates from the forecast centers. In order for the CPC to change their current El Ni\u00F1o \"watch\" to an \"advisory,\" the ocean temperatures in part of the equatorial Pacific need to be at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average (or 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit above average), \"along with consistent atmospheric factors.\" \nIn addition, these anomalies have to be predicted to persist for at least three straight months.\nSo far, those conditions have not been met. But you never know when the atmosphere and ocean will finally click, sparking an event. \nHave something to add to this story? Share it in the comments.\n      window._msla=window.loadScriptAsync||function(src,id){if(document.getElementById(id))return;var js=document.createElement('script');js.id=id;js.src=src;document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0].parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);};\n_msla(\"//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\",\"twitter_jssdk\");"^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
<http://mashable.com/2014/06/20/el-nino-extreme-weather-charts/>