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"  Expectations couldn&amp;#039;t have been lower for President Obama&amp;#039;s Middle East speech on Thursday, and yet it was a work of &amp;quot;realist&amp;quot; beauty that recognized: a) how little influence America actually has over these types of events, and b) where we stand at the beginning of what is likely to be a long process of political upheaval and, hopefully, economic reform that addresses the underlying issues driving the entire region. Yes, Obama took a pass on Palestine and Israel (his historic referencing of Israel&amp;#039;s pre-&amp;#039;67 borders is the Mideast equivalent of a &amp;quot;world without nuclear weapons&amp;quot;), but he&amp;#039;s got several touch points in the coming days (the Netanyahu meeting, another speech, Netanyahu&amp;#039;s speech to Congress) with which to address that, so this was more of a broad-strokes laying out as to what America stands for, and what it&amp;#039;s willing to do amidst its current fiscal realities. And, again, it was a great mix of stated idealism, expressed in long-haul terms, and political pragmatism that recognizes the here-and-now realities that must temper any sense of America coming to anybody else&amp;#039;s immediate rescue. Obama&amp;#039;s was a well-crafted message \u2014 one that reassured both the world and Americans that this administration knows its limits and its responsibilities to history. It was, in a word, presidential. And now, so you don&amp;#039;t have to sit through it again, a little deconstruction of the most compelling sections excerpted (from the prepared remarks) at length: I want to thank Hillary Clinton, who has traveled so much these last six months that she is approaching a new landmark \u2014 one million frequent flyer miles. I count on Hillary every day, and I believe that she will go down as of the finest Secretaries of State in our nation&amp;#039;s history. I personally would never use the words &amp;quot;go down&amp;quot; and &amp;quot;Hillary&amp;quot; in the same sentence, but you get the clear sense of her term winding down with \u2014 quite honestly \u2014 no signature accomplishments and no signature screwups. Not bad for a politician. And of course her opening remarks whined on a bit about State&amp;#039;s rotten budget circumstances, something she was unable to fix. For six months, we have witnessed an extraordinary change take place in the Middle East and North Africa. Square by square; town by town; country by country; the people have risen up to demand their basic human rights. Two leaders have stepped aside. More may follow. The passive tense here is purposeful. Obama will only take what history gives him here. He is laying down no serious markers, no exact promises. This is very George H.W. Bush-like, and you get the sense that Obama is very determined to play the same hand on the Arab Spring that Bush did on Eastern Europe in 1989: Be grateful, be opportunistic, but, above all, be cautious. Already, we have done much to shift our foreign policy following a decade defined by two costly conflicts. After years of war in Iraq, we have removed 100,000 American troops and ended our combat mission there. In Afghanistan, we have broken the Taliban&amp;#039;s momentum, and this July we will begin to bring our troops home and continue transition to Afghan lead. And after years of war against al Qaeda and its affiliates, we have dealt al Qaeda a huge blow by killing its leader \u2014 Osama bin Laden. Translation: I have right-sized our foreign policy, scaling it back from Bush-Cheney&amp;#039;s mad pursuit of &amp;quot;primacy.&amp;quot; And, oh yeah, I got Bin Laden. Bin Laden and his murderous vision won some adherents. But even before his death, al Qaeda was losing its struggle for relevance, as the overwhelming majority of people saw that the slaughter of innocents did not answer their cries for a better life. By the time we found bin Laden, al Qaeda&amp;#039;s agenda had come to be seen by the vast majority of the region as a dead end, and the people of the Middle East and North Africa had taken their future into their own hands. Obama: Under no circumstances should anyone be under the delusion that America is running this show. We tied up the bin Laden story, but it&amp;#039;s a historical footnote to what&amp;#039;s happening now in the Arab world. That story of self-determination began six months ago in Tunisia. On December 17, a young vendor named Mohammed Bouazizi was devastated when a police officer confiscated his cart. This was not unique. It is the same kind of humiliation that takes place every day in many parts of the world \u2014 the relentless tyranny of governments that deny their citizens dignity. Only this time, something different happened... A very purposeful bit of storytelling here, and very Reaganesque. This is about Arab humiliation and economic repression at the hands of Arab dictators. Subtext: America is not in charge so much as responding to bottom-up demand \u2014 just like Obama&amp;#039;s decision on the Libyan intervention. Sometimes, in the course of history, the actions of ordinary citizens spark movements for change because they speak to a longing for freedom that has built up for years. In America, think of the defiance of those patriots in Boston who refused to pay taxes to a King, or the dignity of Rosa Parks as she sat courageously in her seat. So it was in Tunisia... Obama: We are at the beginning of a very long and profound transformation. And we&amp;#039;re not rushing into anything. The story of this Revolution, and the ones that followed, should not have come as a surprise. The nations of the Middle East and North Africa won their independence long ago, but in too many places their people did not. In too many countries, power has been concentrated in the hands of the few. In too many countries, a citizen like that young vendor had nowhere to turn \u2014 no honest judiciary to hear his case; no independent media to give him voice; no credible political party to represent his views; no free and fair election where he could choose his leader. This is about bad governments in the region. Subtext: Building these things will take decades. This lack of self determination \u2014 the chance to make of your life what you will \u2014 has applied to the region&amp;#039;s economy as well. Yes, some nations are blessed with wealth in oil and gas, and that has led to pockets of prosperity. But in a global economy based on knowledge and innovation, no development strategy can be based solely upon what comes out of the ground. Nor can people reach their potential when you cannot start a business without paying a bribe. Even broader subtext: This is all about a region that hasn&amp;#039;t connected up to globalization in any meaningful fashion besides oil. Obama&amp;#039;s purpose is getting Americans to recognize just how big a problem this is, and how big a solution we&amp;#039;ll need. These are tectonic historical forces. There will be no quick answers \u2014 no &amp;quot;plan.&amp;quot; In the face of these challenges, too many leaders in the region tried to direct their people&amp;#039;s grievances elsewhere. The West was blamed as the source of all ills, a half century after the end of colonialism. Antagonism toward Israel became the only acceptable outlet for political expression. Divisions of tribe, ethnicity and religious sect were manipulated as a means of holding on to power, or taking it away from somebody else. Brilliantly noted and all true. The truth being that this ain&amp;#039;t about us or Israel. This is about them \u2014 the bad leaders who&amp;#039;ve failed their peoples for decades. But the events of the past six months show us that strategies of repression and diversion won&amp;#039;t work anymore. Satellite television and the Internet provide a window into the wider world \u2014 a world of astonishing progress in places like India, Indonesia and Brazil. Cell phones and social networks allow young people to connect and organize like never before. A new generation has emerged. And their voices tell us that change cannot be denied. Note he doesn&amp;#039;t mention single-party state China. Point here is \u2014 again \u2014 a wider context: The Arab world has failed at globalization and a youth bulge there can see this failure everyday in mass (and social) media from around the world. India, full of poverty and almost 200 million Muslims, isn&amp;#039;t failing. Nor is Indonesia \u2014 the world&amp;#039;s biggest Muslim state. But the Middle East is failing, and its young people have had enough. Demographics + globalization + state failure = the ultimate context. In Cairo, we heard the voice of the young mother who said, &amp;quot;It&amp;#039;s like I can finally breathe fresh air for the first time&amp;quot;. . . Very Reaganesque and very effective. Subtext: This is all driven by ordinary people. America can respond and support, but it cannot lead.  Those shouts of human dignity are being heard across the region. And through the moral force of non-violence, the people of the region have achieved more change in six months than terrorists have accomplished in decades. Translation: The &amp;quot;war on terror&amp;quot; was a sideshow. The real struggle is between Arab peoples and their governments \u2014 or between peoples who want to connect up to globalization and make better lives for themselves and leaderships that can only maintain their grip on power if the masses remain marginalized, disempowered, and disconnected. Of course, change of this magnitude does not come easily. In our day and age \u2014 a time of 24 hour news cycles, and constant communication \u2014 people expect the transformation of the region to be resolved in a matter of weeks. But it will be years before this story reaches its end. Along the way, there will be good days, and bad days. In some places, change will be swift; in others, gradual. And as we have seen, calls for change may give way to fierce contests for power. This is a great management on expectations and a defense of his leading-from-behind approach. America will follow and respond to events but never pretend to lead them. Here is your frugal and humble superpower. The question before us is what role America will play as this story unfolds. For decades, the United States has pursued a set of core interests in the region: countering terrorism and stopping the spread of nuclear weapons; securing the free flow of commerce, and safe-guarding the security of the region; standing up for Israel&amp;#039;s security and pursuing Arab-Israeli peace. We will continue to do these things... So America will continue managing the world in terms of its systemic stability. That is what we do, and it&amp;#039;s very valuable. To the extent that we intervene in the region decisively, it will be over these core interests. At the end of the day, America is about the Persian Gulf&amp;#039;s &amp;quot;open door&amp;quot; on energy \u2014 and Israel. Everything else is &amp;quot;nice to have&amp;quot; but not core. Obama won&amp;#039;t be changing that. He has no desire to &amp;quot;transform&amp;quot; the region because he sees that transformation arriving on its own. He&amp;#039;s confident in globalization&amp;#039;s advance and its capacity to reformat the Middle East. All he has to do is remain patient and opportunistic and keep a lid on any major conflicts. Yet we must acknowledge that a strategy based solely upon the narrow pursuit of these interests will not fill an empty stomach or allow someone to speak their mind... So we face an historic opportunity. We have embraced the chance to show that America values the dignity of the street vendor in Tunisia more than the raw power of the dictator. There must be no doubt that the United States of America welcomes change that advances self-determination and opportunity. Yes, there will be perils that accompany this moment of promise. But after decades of accepting the world as it is in the region, we have a chance to pursue the world as it should be. Honestly? This is blah-blah-blah presented as rah-rah-rah. Obama is all for the change, but he just listed what he&amp;#039;s actually willing to fight for, and he&amp;#039;s not moving off that dime. Thus the immediate caveat: As we do, we must proceed with a sense of humility. It is not America that put people into the streets of Tunis and Cairo \u2014 it was the people themselves who launched these movements, and must determine their outcome. Not every country will follow our particular form of representative democracy, and there will be times when our short term interests do not align perfectly with our long term vision of the region. But we can \u2014 and will \u2014 speak out for a set of core principles \u2014 principles that have guided our response to the events over the past six months: What follows is a glorious list of &amp;quot;would love to have&amp;#039;s&amp;quot; that \u2014 again \u2014 doesn&amp;#039;t change the core interests list above. &amp;quot;Core interests&amp;quot; matter, &amp;quot;core principles&amp;quot; get tossed aside as required by day-to-day events. Our support for these principles is not a secondary interest \u2014 today I am making it clear that it is a top priority that must be translated into concrete actions, and supported by all of the diplomatic, economic and strategic tools at our disposal. Complete bullshit. They are totally a secondary interest, and he just made that point very clearly. These are the sops. You can tell because you&amp;#039;re tempted to add after every bullet point, &amp;quot;As opposed to... what exactly?&amp;quot; Let me be specific. First, it will be the policy of the United States to promote reform across the region, and to support transitions to democracy. Try it yourself: &amp;quot;As opposed to... what exactly? Support for dictator-monarchs who would keep oil flowing?&amp;quot; Oops! That effort begins in Egypt and Tunisia... But our support must also extend to nations where transitions have yet to take place. Unfortunately, in too many countries, calls for change have been answered by violence. The most extreme example is Libya... Now begins Obama&amp;#039;s version of the &amp;quot;axis of bad leaders&amp;quot; \u2014 Libya as Target No. 1; then Syria, putting Assad in the same category as the Iranians (fair enough); then the president gets close to actually calling out a crucial ally \u2014 as in Bahrain. But if America is to be credible, we must acknowledge that our friends in the region have not all reacted to the demands for change consistent with the principles that I have outlined today. That is true in Yemen, where President Saleh needs to follow through on his commitment to transfer power. And that is true, today, in Bahrain. Bahrain is a long-standing partner, and we are committed to its security. We recognize that Iran has tried to take advantage of the turmoil there, and that the Bahraini government has a legitimate interest in the rule of law. Obama subtext: We draw the line at accepting revolutionary change at Bahrain. We are committed to our security there, in the form of the home port of the all-important U.S. Fifth Fleet. He is now publicly accepting Bahrain&amp;#039;s \u2014 and by extension Saudi Arabia&amp;#039;s \u2014 excuse for the crackdown by likewise pointing a finger at Iran. It&amp;#039;s a completely bullshit excuse in the grand scheme of things, especially in a speech where he so ably highlights the larger historical forces at work in this Arab Spring, but he told you previously \u2014 did he not? \u2014 that in certain situations he would toss America&amp;#039;s long-term principles when they conflict with short-term core interests. This is one of them. He won&amp;#039;t be changing his mind on this subject, because this is who he is: He prefers small pots and keeping his seat at the poker table over big bets. This is why you voted him into power, and frankly, it&amp;#039;s working pretty well so far, isn&amp;#039;t it? Nevertheless, we have insisted publically [sic] and privately that mass arrests and brute force are at odds with the universal rights of Bahrain&amp;#039;s citizens, and will not make legitimate calls for reform go away. The only way forward is for the government and opposition to engage in a dialogue, and you can&amp;#039;t have a real dialogue when parts of the peaceful opposition are in jail. The government must create the conditions for dialogue, and the opposition must participate to forge a just future for all Bahrainis. Obama: Blah, blah. I just told you what mattered. This is for my human rights staffers and history books. Indeed, one of the broader lessons to be drawn from this period is that sectarian divides need not lead to conflict. In Iraq, we see the promise of a multi-ethnic, multi-sectarian democracy. There, the Iraqi people have rejected the perils of political violence for a democratic process, even as they have taken full responsibility for their own security. It is amazing here to listen to Obama extol the virtues of Iraqi democracy. Maybe George W. Bush&amp;#039;s &amp;quot;big bang&amp;quot; wasn&amp;#039;t such a misguided desire after all \u2014 despite the obviously botched execution. But this is politics at its best. So in the months ahead, America must use all our influence to encourage reform in the region. Even as we acknowledge that each country is different, we will need to speak honestly about the principles that we believe in, with friend and foe alike. Our message is simple: if you take the risks that reform entails, you will have the full support of the United States.  &amp;quot;Full support&amp;quot; means scraps of aid, lots of speechifying, and quick abandonment the second you transgress on one of our core interests. Now comes the touchy-feely stuff that&amp;#039;s largely meaningless, given what a small role America can hope to play in this process.  We must also build on our efforts to broaden our engagement beyond elites... And we will use the technology to connect with \u2014 and listen to \u2014 the voices of the people. Long section of boilerplate follows... We support the Internet! We support a free press! Because democracy depends not only on elections, but also strong and accountable institutions, and respect for the rights of minorities. Such tolerance is particularly important when it comes to religion... This part is worthy, as is the stuff on women&amp;#039;s rights: History shows that countries are more prosperous and peaceful when women are empowered. These are the primary sticking points when it comes to a traditional society adapting itself to the demands of globalization, because global trade and investment doesn&amp;#039;t succeed in places where &amp;quot;certain people&amp;quot; are off-limits or where half the labor pool is equally off-limits. Difficult stuff, but this is Obama \u2014 once again \u2014 speaking about larger and intractable truths, like freedom of religion and women&amp;#039;s rights. He&amp;#039;s not going to peddle some nonsense about how solving the Palestinian issue will make everything work in the Middle East. Again, we are at the beginning of a very long and difficult transformation of an entire civilization that has long sucked at globalization but now realizes that it must adapt on some very difficult levels or risk being left behind by almost everybody \u2014 including former basketcase and now booming Sub-Saharan Africa. That is why we will continue to insist that universal rights apply to women as well as men \u2014 by focusing assistance on child and maternal health; by helping women to teach, or start a business; by standing up for the right of women to have their voices heard, and to run for office. For the region will never reach its potential when more than half its population is prevented from achieving their potential. Better-than-average boilerplate text. Even as we promote political reform and human rights in the region, our efforts cannot stop there. So the second way that we must support positive change in the region is through our efforts to advance economic development for nations that transition to democracy. The even-longer sales effort here: Absent economic reform that leads to the region connecting up with globalization, democracy is unlikely to succeed. Yes, it&amp;#039;s that hard. After all, politics alone has not put protesters into the streets. The tipping point for so many people is the more constant concern of putting food on the table and providing for a family. Too many in the region wake up with few expectations other than making it through the day, and perhaps the hope that their luck will change. Throughout the region, many young people have a solid education, but closed economies leave them unable to find a job. Entrepreneurs are brimming with ideas, but corruption leaves them unable to profit from them. The greatest untapped resource in the Middle East and North Africa is the talent of its people. Right on the money. Call it the Greatest Resource Speech. Whichever staffer came up with that bit deserves a gold star in actually understanding the world we live in. Just as democratic revolutions can be triggered by a lack of individual opportunity, successful democratic transitions depend upon an expansion of growth and broad-based prosperity. Again, very responsible management of expectations. Drawing from what we&amp;#039;ve learned around the world, we think it&amp;#039;s important to focus on trade, not just aid; and investment, not just assistance. The goal must be a model in which protectionism gives way to openness; the reigns of commerce pass from the few to the many, and the economy generates jobs for the young. America&amp;#039;s support for democracy will therefore be based on ensuring financial stability; promoting reform; and integrating competitive markets with each other and the global economy \u2014 starting with Tunisia and Egypt. For an anti-free-trade and antibusiness president (at least in his rhetoric), these are some wonderfully refreshing sentiments \u2014 and entirely appropriate. Now comes the laundry list better skipped \u2014 unless you&amp;#039;re a complete wonk and if that&amp;#039;s the case, head over to Foreign Policy or the Brookings Institution web sites for their section on &amp;quot;trade initiatives we love.&amp;quot; Let me conclude by talking about another cornerstone of our approach to the region, and that relates to the pursuit of peace. Obama: This is my setup for Bibi. I&amp;#039;m letting him \u2014 and you \u2014 know that I&amp;#039;m going with Dennis Ross&amp;#039;s advice that says, basically: Go slow and don&amp;#039;t pressure Israel right now amidst all this tumult. Let the Israelis figure things out in the months ahead and play it carefully in the meantime. If my White House were to come out with a peace plan, it would fail like all the rest and all I would accomplish is to make plain how little influence America has over events in the region right now. So no, I won&amp;#039;t be pushing Bibi around. I see no reason to antagonize the Jewish vote in my reelection bid. I may give this a decent effort in my second term, but only if things work out in Egypt. My Administration has worked with the parties and the international community for over two years to end this conflict, yet expectations have gone unmet. Israeli settlement activity continues. Palestinians have walked away from talks. Obama: The Israelis have totally blown me off on the settlements issue, and I expect nothing from Netanyahu&amp;#039;s visit. Meanwhile, having Hamas back together with Fatah is a nonstarter as far as Bibi is concerned.  The world looks at a conflict that has grinded on for decades, and sees a stalemate. Indeed, there are those who argue that with all the change and uncertainty in the region, it is simply not possible to move forward. Obama: And I agree completely. I just can&amp;#039;t say that publicly. When you look at the entire Arab Spring, you realize that the Palestinian question is a complete distraction. I disagree. At a time when the people of the Middle East and North Africa are casting off the burdens of the past, the drive for a lasting peace that ends the conflict and resolves all claims is more urgent than ever. Translation: I will do nothing on this subject to sabotage any core U.S. interests. One simply has to say these things as president. More boilerplate to follow... Ultimately, it is up to Israelis and Palestinians to take action. No peace can be imposed upon them, nor can endless delay make the problem go away. Translation: I have no illusions about this diplomatic quagmire, and I don&amp;#039;t intend to expend any serious political capital on it. That&amp;#039;s why my special envoy, George Mitchell, quit the other day in a huff. He realized I have no commitment on this subject and am now even less incentivized by the Arab Spring. Remember that in the &amp;quot;important&amp;quot; photo-ops and speeches to follow with Netanyahu&amp;#039;s visit. More boilerplate...  But what America and the international community can do is state frankly what everyone knows: a lasting peace will involve two states for two peoples... Thanks for clearly up that mystery....   Now please cue up the music for a rousing and poetic finish. That is the choice that must be made \u2014 not simply in this conflict, but across the entire region \u2014 a choice between hate and hope; between the shackles of the past, and the promise of the future. It&amp;#039;s a choice that must be made by leaders and by people, and it&amp;#039;s a choice that will define the future of a region that served as the cradle of civilization and a crucible of strife. Where&amp;#039;s a slab of granite when you need it? Big finish: For the American people, the scenes of upheaval in the region may be unsettling, but the forces driving it are not unfamiliar. Our own nation was founded through a rebellion against an empire. Our people fought a painful civil war that extended freedom and dignity to those who were enslaved. And I would not be standing here today unless past generations turned to the moral force of non-violence as a way to perfect our union \u2014 organizing, marching, and protesting peacefully together to make real those words that declared our nation: &amp;quot;We hold these truths to be self evident, that all men are created equal.&amp;quot; Those words must guide our response to the change that is transforming the Middle East and North Africa \u2014 words [that] tell us that repression will fail, that tyrants will fall, and that every man and woman is endowed with certain inalienable rights. It will not be easy. There is no straight line to progress, and hardship always accompanies a season of hope. But the United States of America was founded on the belief that people should govern themselves. Now, we cannot hesitate to stand squarely on the side of those who are reaching for their rights, knowing that their success will bring about a world that is more peaceful, more stable, and more just.  Except, of course, when those &amp;quot;core interests&amp;quot; are involved. But you know that already. Esquire contributing editor Thomas P.M. Barnett is the author of Great Powers: America and the World After Bush. For his weekly video bulletins for Wikistrat, click here. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) "^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
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