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"Storm surge, depression forming, sea surface temperatures. These are all terms I've not missed saying, and yet after nearly 6 months of an 'off season' they are terms that once more will be rolling off the lips of us weather dorks. Hurricane Season 2013 is upon us.Here you see the seasonal forecast made by the folks over at NOAA, the governing body that oversees the National Hurricane Center, along with all local National Weather Service branches.By looking at these numbers, we see another well above average season expected, and for many ingredients, something I will address a little further down.Related: Saffir-Simpson scaleOne interesting question asked to me by our WESH.com staff after seeing these numbers is, \"Do they ever forecast a below average season?\"Great question! It sure seems the answer is no, doesn't it? Over the last few seasons, while Central Florida hasn't received a direct hit, the numbers have been quite high.Last year, we had 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and one major. This is just about as busy as what they are calling for this year. Why so busy? Global Warming?No, not global warming, or anything like that. Take a look at the above graph. It's quite complicated, but if you look at it as a whole, the information becomes quite clear.What this graph denotes is what meteorologists call 'multidecadal cycles'. Essentially, these 30-year cycles that swing above average, and below average tropical activity.Looking at the chart above, we see that in the 1930s to 1960s we were quite above average. Many historic storms struck the US during that time period. From the late 1960s through the late 1990s, we were in a lower than average period, and clearly now, we are in that above average swing.Related: Hurricane mythsThere are many theories on why this happens. Here's how I feel: The earth is a living breathing thing. It cycles, just as the planet takes 24 hours to spin on its axis, the tropics go through these 30 year spins.Above average is just a way of life, at least for the next few decades.\u00A0Back to this year's season, other than being above average, there are a few other things the data tells us:First off, the sea surface temperatures, fuel for tropical systems, is already 1-2 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. Simply put, the more fuel, the more fire...Secondly, all models are showing no El Nino pattern. This just means the opposing winds, shown above in orange arrows, won't exist. This has really put a hamper on tropical activity in the past, and since we aren't calling for these shearing winds, there will be less for developing tropical cyclones to fight.All things considered, we should have plenty to track this year. Remember, it only takes one storm to make it a bad season. I always use Hurricane Andrew as an example. A below average season, the 'A' storm was named August 16th, and the storm of course grew to be an incredibly destructive category 5 hurricane.\u00A0We will of course be here all season long tracking the tropics for you. If you're new to the area, or have any questions about the Hurricane Season, please don't hesitate emailing me. eburris@hearst.com is how you can reach out directly to me. I want to make sure you and your family are ready for anything that could develop and come our way this season.See you in a few days!Eric BurrisMeteorologisteburris@hearst.comHurriance checklist: How to prepare"^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
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