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" Florida holds its primaries today, but the races worth watching are the ones for Senate nomination. Marco Rubio will be the Republican candidate; Kendrick Meek almost certainly the Democratic; and Governor Charlie Crist, erstwhile Republican, is mounting an independent challenge.  Observing this race as a native Floridian \u2014 not as a poll hound or fancy analyst \u2014 I&amp;#039;ll make a prediction: Charlie Crist will win in November, by a slim margin. Rubio second, Meek third. There is much talk of Rubio being the golden child of the new GOP \u2014 a young, handsome member of a racial minority who (the logic goes) gives lie to the idea that his Tea Party backers are old, white, and racially retrograde. Yet, tellingly, Rubio is running from the Tea Party toward the Republican center \u2014 for, I believe, reasons outlined below.   There&amp;#039;s also talk of Meek triumphing by virtue of a split conservative ticket. A logical idea on the face of it, but in a year when the Democratic base is disillusioned and the conservative base energized, it&amp;#039;s hard to see the state handing him the basic numbers he&amp;#039;d need. Factor in the fact that a visit by his most obvious political godfather, President Obama, would energize his opposition even further, and the logic falls apart. Far more than personal politics, I think this race will be decided by simple demographics. In the voting booth, Florida is dominated by two main groups: Hispanics and white retirees. Rubio, the upstart, can count on a healthy boost from the former. But Crist, I think, can count on a healthier boost from the latter. If there is a state in the union where memories of an archaic form of Republicanism live, it is Florida. The form I speak of is that of Eisenhower. It is a Republicanism that did not love government \u2014 but did trust it. That did not wear its religion on its sleeve \u2014 and distrusted those who do. That did not politicize war \u2014 because it knew war is not a game.  Before anyone accuses me of equating Charlie Crist to Dwight Eisenhower, let me state unequivocally that I consider the equation laughable. But if my assumption about the senior vote in Florida is correct, the question is: which candidate most resembles Ike? It&amp;#039;s Crist. By a nose. "^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
<http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a8286/florida-primary-results-082410/>