Northampton is a manufacturing town close to the M1, whose population is growing at a rate of something like 2,000 per annum. In 1974, the town was divided into two parliamentary constituencies, with this southern division having been the safer for the Conservatives: outside of the town itself, it takes in the rural and commuter hinterland to the south, including a good deal of green belt land.
Northampton was a seat of Parliament many times during the 14th century, and during the civil war the strong parliamentary garrison at Northampton led the assault at Naseby. Traditionally, the town’s prime industry has been shoemaking, but there is now a much more diverse range of business interests here: Carlsberg have their UK base here, Barclaycard’s headquarters are here and MFI have a big distribution centre here too.
Northamptonshire could possibly be denoted a ‘swing county’, on the grounds that 5 of its 6 seats changed hands in 1997. This time round, it would only require a uniform swing of less than 0.7% from Labour to the Tories for the three unexpected Labour gains here, of which this is one, to return to the Conservatives.