Britain's Chief Scientist told an American audience in Seattle how dangerous he believes global warming to be.
We already know he thinks it's a more serious threat to national security than al-Qaeda. Now strategic planners working for the Pentagon have produced their own report on the risk climate change poses to global stability.
Growing evidence suggests the planet is being pushed to a tipping point that could alter the weather radically, not in centuries - but in a decade. If that happens it could cause mayhem in countries overwhelmed and destabilised by huge temperature shifts.
Ben Geoghegan reported.
Since 9/11, nothing has been as important for
America as the war on terrorism. But Britain's
chief scientist has been arguing that there is a
more pressing problem which the Bush
administration hasn't done enough to address. Sir
David King thinks global warming is the biggest
danger facing the world today, more serious even
than the threat from Al-Qaeda. He has accused
the US Government of failing to take up the
challenge of climate change.
National Resources Defense Council
David King is absolutely correct to say that the
United States is not addressing global warming in
a serious way. The Bush administration not only
walked away from the Kyoto protocol, but it has
opposed any meaningful standards to reduce
carbon dioxide pollution that causes global
Tonight in Seattle, Sir David will repeat what most
scientists accept - that human activity is making
the Earth warmer and that big cuts in greenhouse
gases are needed.
DOCTOR RICHARD WOOD:
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction
The climate models predict that, over the next 50
years, we are likely to see a rise in global average
temperatures of maybe one or one-and-a-half
degrees, which is more than the global warming
we have already seen. The impacts of that on all
sorts of systems, such as sea level rise, such as
extreme events like heat waves and extreme
rainfall events - floods - possibly wind events, like
storms. There are really wide-ranging impacts on
the climate system of the whole world.
President Bush has decided not to impose
mandatory limits on carbon dioxide production
because of the harm they might do to American
industry. The US believes the emissions targets in
the Kyoto agreement on climate change are
arbitrary and expensive.
PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH:
I will not commit our nation to an unsound
international treaty that will throw millions of our
citizens out of work.
So the policy up until now has been to given
individual states the freedom to regulate
themselves. The Government is also investing
heavily in technology as a way of coming up with
solutions that don't hurt the economy. But
environmentalists are hoping that new research
for the Department of Defence might soon bring
about a different approach. Inside the Pentagon is
a unit with the job of identifying future threats to
the United States. It reports directly to the
Secretary of Defence. It recently hired experts to
look into some of the implications climate change
might have for national security. Newsnight has
obtained a copy of their unpublished report. It
warns that a dire climate scenario might be
unfolding, and it's one which needs to be
This is very much in the spirit of thinking the
unthinkable. The report that we put together for
the Pentagon is an extreme scenario, in the sense
that most climatologists would say that this is low
probability, in the sense of it happening soon, and
as pervasively. But it is the Pentagon's job to think
about many cases, the worst-case scenario. What
are the extreme continue conditions that could put
pressures on US national security?
Rather than looking at gradual change over
centuries, the Pentagon has been finding out
about what might happen if the climate in the
northern hemisphere suddenly lurched into a big
freeze. There is growing evidence to suggest this
might happen, in which case Britain would
become just as cold as Siberia.
DOCTOR MERIC SROKOSZ:
Rapid Climate Change Programme, Natural Environment Research Council
Paradoxically, we could actually get colder locally
while the rest of the world is warming because of
the effects on the oceans circulation. We have
evidence from ice-core data in Greenland and
sediments at the bottom of the sea that show
such changes have occurred in the past, and they
have occurred on fairly short timescales, like 10-
20 years which is quite rapid for climate change.
The eastern United States and northern Europe
are warmed by a huge Atlantic current flowing
north from the tropics. It's called the great
conveyor. As the warm current moves north, it
cool, sinks and begins to head south again. The
problem is that as the Earth heats up and the
Arctic glaciers melt, more fresh water is poured
into the sea. That makes it less salty and less
dense, and so less likely to sink. One possibility is
that the circulation of the current could slow down,
or stop altogether.
The only real question is, when, and exactly with
what effects, where. That is, I think that it is likely
that, if the climate is changing - and I think the
evidence is very strong that it is - that when it
changes, it will change suddenly. It will snap.
Following a period of warming, we will get a
dramatic cooling. What we don't really know is
whether this will take 10 years, 20 years or 50
years. The evidence is mounting that it's fairly
soon. That's why there is an interest in
considering what the consequences might be in
the near future.
The report says that if the ocean's conveyor does
stop, average temperatures in North America
could fall by up to 5 degrees and by even more in
some parts of Europe. Average rainfall in this
region would fall by 30% leading to massive
droughts in key agricultural areas. Winds would
increase by 15% provoking widespread dust
storms and soil loss. The Pentagon study claims
that climate change could mean human life would
come to be defined by war. Different regions
would fight for diminishing resources.
Around the world, we could see conflict induced
by the search for particularly food and water, in
some cases access to energy, and as a result
either friends or allies, or others, may need our
assistance in military ways to cope with the kind of
stresses that they are having to confront.
On the River Clyde this week, a ship was being
prepared for a joint British, American expedition to
the Atlantic. Scientists will monitor changes in the
strength and temperature of ocean currents to see
if the conveyor is indeed about to turn itself off.
DOCTOR STEWART CUNNINGHAM:
Chief Scientist, Rapid Climate Change Monitoring Programme
What we are going out to measure is the
temperature and speed of the warm water flowing
north in the Gulf stream, and then the same
speed and temperature of the cold water which
turns southwards from the high Arctic regions. It's
the balance of the temperature and speeds of
those two main currents that will tell us about the
state and strength of the Atlantic circulation.
This expedition shows that the whole idea of
abrupt climate change is not something that's only
talked about by the policy wonks in the back
rooms of the Pentagon. It is a real and potential
consequence of global warming and something
which scientists at least are treating with
increasingly seriousness. But the Pentagon's
paper says that this whole issue should be taken
beyond the level of scientific debate because of its
potential implications for national security, and so
some groups are hoping that it will now trigger a
change in policy at the White House.
Meteorologists are at a loss to explain what is
causing this weather...
Hollywood has already decided that climate
change can be made to look as scary as
terrorism. This film was released in Britain in May
and there are some unmistakable references to
Lower Manhattan is virtually inaccessible. A wall
of water coming towards New York City!
National Resources Defense Council
Global warming is a problem that the Pentagon
should take seriously, and it's very welcome that
they have commissioned a thoughtful study of the
risks that global warming poses to the United
States. I think that coming from the Pentagon, a
lot of people will take this seriously that might not
otherwise pay attention.
It's possible to argue that rapid climate change
has nothing to do with human behaviour, and so
there is no point in trying to stop it, but
environmentalists say the Pentagon's research
provides as good a case for a policy of pre-
emption as anything else.
This transcript was produced from the teletext subtitles that are generated live for Newsnight. It has been checked against the programme as broadcast, however Newsnight can accept no responsibility for any factual inaccuracies. We will be happy to correct serious errors.