Bioróżnorodność: czemu jest ważna i jak ją chronić?
Ponadto, wylesianie zmniejsza zatrzymywanie wody w glebie zwiększając zagrożenie powodzią, a także sprzyja erozji gleb. Wreszcie utrata pokrywy ...
Godfray i inni, 2010
Poza eliminacją emisji ważne jest również zwiększenie pochłaniania CO2 przez ekosystemy takie jak lasy i torfowiska. Zahamowanie wylesiania i powtórne zalesianie terenów niewykorzystywanych rolniczo będą w tym względzie pomocne. Osobnym zagadnieniem pozostaje zapewnienie odpowiedniej ilości żywności dla rosnącej populacji. Należy jednak pamiętać, że obecnie marnuje się około 30 – 40% produkowanej żywności ( <anchor>Godfray i inni, 2010</anchor>), ponadto istnieją możliwości zwiększenia produkcji żywności na obecnie użytkowanych gruntach. Istotnym problemem pozostaje jednak zagrożenie utraty gruntów rolnych w następstwie zmian klimatu oraz wzrost popytu na mięso i nabiał wraz  z bogaceniem się społeczeństw ( Wageningen University).
Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People | Science
Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People \| Science

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[Home](https://www.science.org/ "Home") [Science](/journal/science "Science") [Vol. 327, No. 5967](/toc/science/327/5967 "Vol. 327, No. 5967") Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People

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# Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People

[H. Charles J.Godfray](#con1) [\[email protected\]](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#56353e37243a3325783139323024372f162c393978392e78373578233d), [John R.Beddington](#con2), \[...\], [Ian R.Crute](#con3), [LawrenceHaddad](#con4), \[...\], [DavidLawrence](#con5), [James F.Muir](#con6), [JulesPretty](#con7), [ShermanRobinson](#con8), [Sandy M.Thomas](#con9), and [CamillaToulmin](#con10)+7 authors+5 authorsfewer [Authors Info & Affiliations](#tab-contributors)

Science

28 Jan 2010

Vol 327, Issue 5967

pp. 812-818

[DOI: 10.1126/science.1185383](https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185383)

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## Abstract

Continuing population and consumption growth will mean that the global demand for food will increase for at least another 40 years. Growing competition for land, water, and energy, in addition to the overexploitation of fisheries, will affect our ability to produce food, as will the urgent requirement to reduce the impact of the food system on the environment. The effects of climate change are a further threat. But the world can produce more food and can ensure that it is used more efficiently and equitably. A multifaceted and linked global strategy is needed to ensure sustainable and equitable food security, different components of which are explored here.

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May. 19, 2010

###### Response to G. Flachowsky's E-Letter

H. Charles J. Godfray

In a wide-ranging review of a broad and complex subject we had limited space to explore fully all the factors affecting resource use in livestock production systems, their relative sustainability and broader impact on the environment ("Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people," H. C. J. Godfray _et al_., Reviews, 12 February 2010, p. 812). The data in our Table 2 was primarily derived from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and IPCC reports and were quoted to illustrate some of the issues with livestock production that must be considered in food policy debates. We were aware of the complexities and concluded by stating "\[o\]f the five strategies we discuss here, assessing the value of decreasing the fraction of meat in our diets is the most difficult and needs to be better understood." We welcome G. Flachowsky's informative analysis, which elaborates some of these complexities and, we think, emphasizes the need for more and better data. There is no clear consensus on how we should compare the impacts of different livestock production systems on processes as diverse as fresh water consumption, provision of human macro and micro nutrients, gaseous emissions, eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems, biodiversity, animal welfare, and human cultural richness. Livestock policy is politically highly charged and the challenge to the research community is to develop disinterested metrics to inform debates on dietary choice, animal health, human physical and economic wellbeing, and environmental sustainability.

H. Charles J. Godfray

Department of Zoology and Institute of Biodiversity at the James Martin 21st Century School, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.

John R. Beddington

UK Government Office for Science, 1 Victoria Street, London, SW1H OET, UK.

Ian R. Crute

Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, Stoneleigh Park, Kenilworth, Warwickshire, CV8 2TL, UK.

Lawrence Haddad

Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9RE, UK.

David Lawrence

Syngenta AG, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland.

James F. Muir

Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling, Stirlingshire, FK9 4LA, UK.

Jules Pretty

Department of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex, CO4 3SQ, UK.

Sherman Robinson

Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9RE, UK.

Sandy M. Thomas

Foresight, UK Government Office for Science, 1 Victoria Street, London SW1H OET, UK.

Camilla Toulmin

International Institute for Environment and Development, 3 Endsleigh Street, London, WC1H 0DD, UK.

May. 19, 2010

###### Food Production Through Better Animal Husbandry

Gerhard Flachowsky

I was happy to see the 12 February 2010 special section on Food Security. Unfortunately, as an animal nutritionist, I am disappointed in the livestock portion (pp. 816–817) of H. C. J. Godfray _et al_.'s Review ("Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people," 12 February 2010, p. 812). Animal scientists involved in breeding, nutrition, keeping, health, and welfare were underrepresented in the group of 10 authors.

Godfray _et al_.'s Table 2 (p. 817) contains unrealistic values for the drinking water intake, the feed required to produce 1 kg of meat, and methane emissions. It is not clear to me why pigs, sheep, and chickens should consume the same water amounts, independent of keeping form (grazing or intensive), whereas intensively kept cattle should consume about 5 times as much water as grazing animals. Roughly calculated, the water intake of animals amounts to about 3 to 5 times their dry matter (DM) intake, depending on animal performance—diet composition, ambient temperature, and other factors ( _1–3_). A laying hen consumes about 100 g of DM per day and drinks about 300 to 500 g of water per day (not 1.3 to 1.8 liters; this is nearly the body weight of such a hen). No attention was given to animal performances. For example, 1 liter of milk contains nearly 87% water; milk yield, therefore, is an important influencing factor on water intake. Why did the authors not consider the data of various countries' scientific societies, such as the National Research Council in the United States or the Society of Nutrition Physiology in Germany, which deduce and update energy and nutrient requirements for food-producing animals?

Apart from water intake, meat yield is not a clearly defined term. It is not measurable under field conditions. Normally, the hot standard carcass weight, or the empty body weight \[meat plus bones ( _4_)\] is registered in the slaughtering houses and given as a value to the statisticians. What happens to the other edible fractions such as liver, heart, and, lungs?

The values given for cereal to produce 1 kg of meat seem to be unrealistic. Not only cereals, but also food industry by-products are fed to animals. We can produce 1 kg of beef (cattle) without any cereal and only roughage, whereas in the case of broiler chicken meat, more than 1 kg (not only cereals) is required.

The main objective of animal husbandry in North America, Europe, and other regions is the production of edible protein in milk, meat, fish, and eggs. Therefore, the estimation of edible protein of animal origin is better suited as a measure for scientific studies to assess animal production, feed input, and efficiency, as well as outputs of environmental relevance. Our Institute of Animal Nutrition data ( _5, 6_) shows some values on this topic dependent on animal yields measured under European conditions.






Gerhard Flachowsky

Institute of Animal Nutrition, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute (FLI), Bundesallee 50, D-38116 Braunschweig, Germany.

References

1\. J. Kamphues _et al_., _FAL Agricultural Research_ 57, 255 (2007).

2\. U. Meyer, M. Everinghoff, D. Gaedeken, G. Flachowsky, _Livest. Prod. Sci_. 90, 117 (2004).

3\. U. Meyer, W. Stahl, G. Flachowsky, _Livest. Sci_. 103, 186 (2006).

4\. G. M. Peters _et al_., _Environ. Sci. Technol_. 44, 1327 (2010).

5\. G. Flachowsky, _J. Appl. Anim. Res_. 22, 1 (2002).

6\. G. Flachowsky, S. Hachenberg, _J. Consumer Prot. Food Safety_ 4, 1190 (2009).

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#### Acknowledgments

The authors are members of the U.K. Government Office for Science’s Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures. J.R.B. is also affiliated with Imperial College London. D.L. is a Board Member of Plastid AS (Norway) and owns shares in AstraZeneca Public Limited Company and Syngenta AG. We are grateful to J. Krebs and J. Ingrahm (Oxford), N. Nisbett and D. Flynn (Foresight), and colleagues in Defra and DflD for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript. If not for his sad death in July 2009, Mike Gale (John Innes Institute, Norwich, UK) would also have been an author of this paper.

### Authors

#### Affiliations

H. Charles J.Godfray[\*](#cor1) [\[email protected\]](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d8bbb0b9aab4bdabf6bfb7bcbeaab9a198a2b7b7f6b7a0f6b9bbf6adb3)

Department of Zoology and Institute of Biodiversity at the James Martin 21st Century School, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.

[View all articles by this author](/authored-by/Godfray/H+Charles+J)

John R.Beddington

U.K. Government Office for Science, 1 Victoria Street, London SW1H OET, UK.

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Ian R.Crute

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Institute of Development Studies, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9RE, UK.

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James F.Muir

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Department of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ, UK.

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#### Notes

\*

To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: [\[email protected\]](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d5b6bdb4a7b9b0a6fbb2bab1b3a7b4ac95afbabafbbaadfbb4b6fba0be)

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01. Title Pending 16246, Meat and Muscle Biology, (2033). [https://doi.org/10.22175/mmb.16246](https://doi.org/10.22175/mmb.16246 "Crossref")
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