De effecten van klimaatverandering: van regenwoud naar savanne
Klimaatverandering heeft invloed op de biodiversiteit, maar werkt ook omgekeerd: biodiversiteit draagt bij aan de ecologische en klimatologische ...
opinieartikel uit 2009
Dit ecosysteem handhaaft zijn eigen regencyclus, die van vitaal belang is voor zijn overleving. Wat zou er gebeuren als deze feedback-loop wordt verstoord door extreme droogte? In een <anchor>opinieartikel uit 2009</anchor> in het tijdschrift Environmental Sustainability spraken wetenschappers Nobre & Borma voor het eerst over 'omslagpunten' voor het Amazonewoud. Ze waarschuwden dat het evenwicht tussen bos en klimaat verstoord zou kunnen worden door een aantal door de mens veroorzaakte veranderingen, waardoor het regenwoud snel en ongecontroleerd zou veranderen in een savanne-achtig ecosysteem. Op dat moment schatten ze in dat het 'omslagpunt' zal worden bereikt wanneer het totale ontboste gebied meer dan 40% bedraagt en de temperatuur wereldwijd met 3-4°C zal stijgen.
‘Tipping points’ for the Amazon forest - ScienceDirect
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## Article preview

- [Abstract](#preview-section-abstract)
- [Introduction](#preview-section-introduction)
- [Section snippets](#preview-section-snippets)
- [References (93)](#preview-section-references)
- [Cited by (162)](#preview-section-cited-by)

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## [Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability](/journal/current-opinion-in-environmental-sustainability "Go to Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability on ScienceDirect")

[Volume 1, Issue 1](/journal/current-opinion-in-environmental-sustainability/vol/1/issue/1 "Go to table of contents for this volume/issue"), October 2009, Pages 28-36

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# ‘Tipping points’ for the Amazon forest

Author links open overlay panelCarlos AfonsoNobre, Laura De SimoneBorma

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[https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.003](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.003 "Persistent link using digital object identifier") [Get rights and content](https://s100.copyright.com/AppDispatchServlet?publisherName=ELS&contentID=S1877343509000062&orderBeanReset=true)

The stability of the [Amazon](/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/amazon "Learn more about Amazon from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages") forest–climate equilibrium is being perturbed by a number of human drivers of change (e.g. [deforestation](/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/deforestation "Learn more about deforestation from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages"), [global warming](/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/global-warming "Learn more about global warming from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages"), forest fires, higher CO2 concentrations, and increased frequency of droughts and floods). Quantitative assessments for the maintenance of the [tropical forest](/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/tropical-forest "Learn more about tropical forest from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages") indicate that ‘tipping points’ may exist for total deforested area (>40%) and for global warming (Δ _T_ >3–4°C). The likelihood of exceeding a tipping point can be greatly exacerbated by increases in forest fires and droughts, but quantification of those effects is still lacking. Forest resilience can be significantly increased if CO2 ‘fertilization’ effect is proven to be taking place for tropical forests, but it can be offset by continued increases in temperature, rainfall [seasonality](/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/seasonality "Learn more about seasonality from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages"), and forest fires.

## Introduction

The critical importance of the Amazon forest for the maintenance of tropical biodiversity (e.g. \[1\]), as a significant carbon pool (e.g. \[2\]) and for local and regional climate stability \[3\] has been recognized for some time. The functioning of the Amazon as an undisturbed regional entity can also be seen as providing key ecosystems services \[4••\] and the most obvious one is its role as a large carbon pool and even as carbon sink, though the latter is not firmly established as yet \[5\]. However, anthropogenic disturbances of many varieties are all that tropical forests have been subjected to in the last half century. The tropical forests of South America are no exception and are under the increasing influence of a suite of human drivers of environmental change, mostly related to unprecedented rates of land cover change for the last 30 years or longer \[6\]. The main human drivers of change for the Amazon are forest clearing (clear-cut deforestation), forest degradation and fragmentation, climate change associated to global warming, increased atmospheric concentration of CO2, forest fires, and potential increases of climate extremes (e.g. droughts). They are all interconnected in complex ways.

A scientific question that has been gaining key importance in recent years is the evaluation of the so-called critical or ‘tipping’ points of the Earth system \[7\], aimed at quantitatively establishing the likelihood of crossing a threshold that could cause an element of the Earth system to jump to another stable equilibrium. The climate–vegetation equilibrium in the Amazon has been identified as one such tipping point of the Earth system \[7\] possibly presenting bi-stability \[8\]: one equilibrium state is obviously the present climate–vegetation state with tropical forests covering most of the Basin and a second stable state would have tropical savannas (or other type of drought-adapted and fire-adapted vegetation) replacing forests in a large portions of the Basin. Once a tipping point is transgressed, the time scale for fully reaching the new equilibrium state can be ‘abrupt’ in comparison to natural time scales of change, but still may take several decades to a century for the establishment of the new vegetation–climate state \[3, 7\].

In the following sections, we will review current knowledge on the human drivers of change and the impact they are already causing or are projected to cause in the Amazon system with a view toward identifying tipping points of that system that would lead to irreversible changes in the functioning of the tropical forest. Such changes can reach an extent as to affect greatly the capacity of the Amazon forest to render ecosystems services \[4••, 9, 10••, 11••, 12••\], or other drivers which might be somewhat attenuated by increased resilience of the forest because of CO2 effects \[13\].

In the context of this paper, ‘ _savannization_’ has been defined as an environmental change in tropical South America that would lead to changes in the regional climate because of either land cover change \[3, 10••\] or global warming \[11••\] in such way as increase the length of the dry season and turn the regional climate into the typical climatic envelope of savannas. It is a statement on regional climate change and not on the ecological processes of forest replacement. On the other hand, ‘ _secondarization_’ refers to subjecting the forest to clear-cutting and then to a repeated cycle of secondary growth, clearing and fire penetration, that leads to a significantly impoverished form of secondary growth \[14••\]. Secondarization can happen in the absence of savannization and vice versa. However, the most likely scenario is that both processes would be taking place simultaneously, operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and strongly interacting: large-scale drivers such as basin-scale deforestation and global warming might change the Amazon climate toward a savanna-like climate with longer dry seasons. Increased forest fragmentation and degradation, coupled to more frequent penetration of forest and secondary growth fires, and higher frequency of intense droughts (the latter because of global warming), on the other hand, would act locally to reduce the resilience of the forest and induce its replacement by more fire-tolerant, typical savanna species and dominated by grasses \[14••, 15••\]. Other drivers of change might increase resilience of the forest. Uncertainty of changes of the hydrological cycle because of global warming prevent conclusive statements on the increase of the dry season; global warming might likely increase not only the frequency of droughts but also the frequency of floods that is an acceleration of the hydrological cycle. The severe drought in 2005 over western–southwestern Amazon \[16\] was followed by floods only six months later \[17\]. Above-normal rainfall all over the Amazon in the first five months of 2009 has led to record-breaking floods of the Amazon River and some of the main tributaries \[18\]. Plentiful rainfall can in principle increase forest resilience. Lastly, atmospheric \[CO2\] increases has been hypothesized as being contributing to a beneficial effect on plant productivity (the so-called CO2 ‘fertilization’ effect) underpinning forest inventory measurements of net carbon uptake by the Amazon forest \[19\] over the last decade. If that positive effect continues into the future \[13\], it may counteract to some extent the negative impacts of deforestation, global warming, and enhanced fires.

## Section snippets

## Land cover change and regional climate change

There are nine Amazonian countries, but 80% of deforestation takes place within Brazil \[20\]. Globally, Amazon deforestation corresponds to 47.8% of the total tropical forest loss \[21\], a rate that is four times larger than the second largest rate at 12.8% for Indonesia. Fifty percent of tropical deforestation happens within 6% of the total area \[22\]. In the Amazon the hot spots of deforestation are spread mostly in the savanna–forest transition region, the so-called ‘deforestation arch’, over

## Discussion and conclusions

The stability of the Amazon forest–climate equilibrium is being perturbed by a number of human drivers of environmental change. Quantitative assessments of ‘tipping points’ for that equilibrium can become important guidance for conservation policies at local, regional, and global scales, since they would indicate the likelihood of crossing a threshold in the near, mid-term, or long-term. Table 1 summarizes current knowledge on the sensitivity of the Amazon forest to deforestation and global

## References and recommended reading

Papers of particular interest, published within the period of review, have been highlighted as:

- •• of outstanding interest


Recommended articles

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## Cited by (162)

- ### [Landscape connectivity loss after the de-escalation of armed conflict in the Colombian Amazon (2011–2021)](/science/article/pii/S2351989424002981)



2024, Global Ecology and Conservation



Show abstract







Rapid deforestation has been well-documented in Colombia after the 2016 peace agreement with FARC. While many analysis using remote sensing identify land cover change, structural connectivity variables are less studied for understanding landscape transformation. In this work, we used data from the Landsat archive from 2011 to 2021, the Continuous Change Detection and Classification algorithm (CCDC), and Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) to analyze deforestation, land cover change, and landscape connectivity in northwestern Colombia’s Amazon. We examined the spatial patterns in three specific subsets in the Colombian arc of deforestation, with a special focus on the surroundings of the National Natural Park Serranía de Chiribiquete. Our results confirm changes in structural connectivity linked to pasture expansion from the conversion _forest_ to _pasture_ during the analyzed period showing changes in the borders of Serranía de Chiribiquete National Park along rivers and roads, where cattle is transported. Before 2016, the average annual deforested area in the three study areas was 27.93 km²; after 2016, this number increased to 73.36 km². The outcomes of our study contribute to an improved understanding of pasture dynamics. They can aid decision-making in areas that play a key role in ecological networks necessary for long-term conservation efforts. Our quantitative assessments have revealed a temporal shrinking of the core area, indicative of a decline in forest cover. Concurrently, we observed an expansion of the edge and background areas, which is consistent with the proliferation of pastures. This study presents methodology and data in support of policy-making for sustainable land use and ecological connectivity to mitigate further environmental degradation in the area.

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The hydrology of the Amazon River basin (ARB) has been extensively studied; however, critical scientific gaps remain regarding key processes that govern hydrologic dynamics and the resilience of the rainforest. This inhibits the understanding of hydrological considerations needed for sustainable forest management under climate change and growing human stressors. Here, using high resolution (∼2km), long-term simulations from a process-based hydrological model (LEAF-Hydro-Flood), we investigate the dominant hydrological processes across the ARB, their key roles in shaping basin functions, and the decadal evolution therein. Results indicate that shallow groundwater (<5m deep) strongly modulates the seasonality of the surface fluxes across the ARB and at least 34% of the Amazonian Forest is supported by groundwater during the dry season. A two-month lag between the seasonal peak of evapotranspiration (ET) and river discharge is a key mechanism that potentially prevents the rainforest from tipping into savanna. The dry season in the ARB is getting drier and the wet season is getting wetter, pointing to an accelerating hydrologic cycle. The ARB is dominantly energy limited, however, our results imply that in the absence of groundwater support, and with less than ∼125 mm/month of precipitation, the basin could have become water-limited over some regions. The long-term basin-averaged ET—dominated by transpiration—changed with a split pattern of ±9% in the past three decades. Similarly, water table depth (±19%) and runoff (±29%) changed with heterogenous patterns across the ARB. Further, the contribution of canopy interception loss and ground evaporation changed heterogeneously across the ARB in response to deforestation. River discharge did not change substantially due to the crucial buffering role of groundwater, but terrestrial water storage (TWS) decreased (increased) in the 2000s (2010s) compared to that in the 1990s. Although groundwater is the dominant contributor to total TWS, the dynamics of TWS over the major river channels are controlled by flood water, given relatively shallow groundwater. This study provides crucial insights on the dominant hydrological processes in the ARB to inform forest management practices.

- ### [Deforestation-induced changes in rainfall decrease soybean-maize yields in Brazil](/science/article/pii/S0304380023002636)



2023, Ecological Modelling



Show abstract







Whereas the global demand for food, fiber and energy is increasing, the capacity of ecosystems services to sustain agricultural production is being compromised worldwide. Brazil is a global food supplier that has benefitted from agricultural intensification in the past decades. At the same time, expansion of cropland has led to deforestation that, in turn, is increasingly affecting rainfall patterns thereby influencing crop yields. This study examines how loss in forest cover has impacted agricultural yields through change in rainfall. To do so, we use modelled data on changes in rainfall patterns due to deforestation as input to a crop model. We assess yield changes within the soybean-maize double cropping system, the country's most relevant agricultural system, in five states within the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Findings revealed that soybean and maize yields would have been respectively 6.6 % and 9.9 % higher per year in the last decade if rainfall patterns hadn't been altered by deforestation from 1982 onwards. Although agricultural efficiency improved between 2011 and 2020, it was insufficient to offset the negative effect of altered rainfall on yields. Our paper reveals the link between deforestation and crop yields, emphasizing the need to preserve forest cover for agricultural resilience and food security. It reinforces the critical role of forests in regulating the water cycle, particularly in the face of climate change-induced warmer and drier conditions that can impact agricultural production and other human activities.

- ### [Amazon climate extremes: Increasing droughts and floods in Brazil's state of Acre](/science/article/pii/S253006442300072X)



2023, Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation



Show abstract







The intensification of extreme climate events is already a reality throughout the world. In the Brazilian Amazon, the most frequent extreme events are linked to droughts and floods. This study expanded the documentation on extreme events of floods, water crisis, fires and forest fires in the state of Acre, in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon. We analyzed extreme weather events in state and municipal state-of-emergency and public-calamity decrees, reports of people who faced the impacts of these events, scientific articles, and press reports. The results show that the state of Acre recorded 202 extreme events between 1987 and 2023, with an increasing trend in the number and occurrence of various types of extreme events in the same year since 2010. Twenty-one state-of-emergency and public-calamity decrees were issued, with flood events being the most frequent. The cities of Rio Branco and Cruzeiro do Sul recorded 14 and 21 extreme events, respectively, or approximately one event every two years. These data show the urgency of implementing actions to adapt to climate extremes. Starting in 2005, the annual results indicate an increase in municipalities (counties) experiencing more than one type of extreme event, pointing to the need for effective public policies for adaptation and mitigation in the state of Acre.

- ### [Changes in the surface and atmospheric water budget due to projected Amazon deforestation: Lessons from a fully coupled model simulation](/science/article/pii/S0022169423010247)



2023, Journal of Hydrology



Show abstract







The Amazon forest has a complex interaction with climate at different spatial and temporal scales. This means that alterations in land use could modify the regional water cycle, including the surface and atmospheric water budget. However, little is known about how these changes occur seasonally and in a spatially distributed manner in the most vulnerable regions, such as the southern Amazon. In this study, the local to regional effects of future Amazon deforestation on the surface and atmospheric water budget components are investigated by twin numerical experiments using the Regional Earth System Model of the ‘Institute Pierre Simone Laplace’ (RegIPSL) for 19 yr (2001–2019). The results show that significant changes in precipitation and actual evapotranspiration in the southern Amazon (south of 5°S) are associated with surrounding areas with a deforested ratio higher than 40%. During the onset of the wet season (September-November) the largest changes in convective processes are manifested by opposite atmospheric dynamic in adjacent regions (dipole), associated with. This dynamic is associated with wind orientation and the different sizes of the straight corridors of continuous deforestation (pathways). The dipole manifests itself as a suppression of convection in the upwind sector, while convection increases in the downwind sector of the deforestation pathway. For medium-sized deforestation pathways (∼350 km) convection changes are related to dynamic processes (decrease in surface roughness). In large-sized pathways (∼500 km) the mechanisms causing convective changes are combined, dynamic and thermal (increase in surface temperature). In deforested regions there is an average increase of terrestrial water storage dynamics and runoff ∼10 times higher than in non-deforested regions. Furthermore, the atmosphere becomes ∼8 times drier in deforested regions than in non-deforested regions. Our findings indicate a new perspective regarding a comprehensive modeling approach to understand potential changes in the surface and atmospheric water cycle in different regions of Amazonia and in different seasons due to future deforestation and thus provide new insights into their spatial and temporal variability at sub-regional scales.

- ### [Forest disturbances](/science/article/pii/B9780323904308000058)



2023, Future Forests: Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change



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Altered temperature and precipitation normals and extremes affect disturbance agents, including windstorms, wildfires, insects and diseases, and sea level rise (SLR). Extreme events are projected to increase in frequency by more than an order of magnitude. Increasing storm intensity is impacting previously unaffected regions as tropical cyclones migrate farther north in the northern hemisphere. Climate change alters annual fire frequency, with increased intensity, lengthening the fire season and the area burned. More frequent extreme weather and drought increase the danger of severe wildfire seasons and mega-fires. A warming climate accelerates insect development and survival, expanding the true or outbreak range of species in boreal and temperate forests as evidenced by recent outbreaks of bark beetles and defoliators. Relative SLR increases the frequency and severity of coastal flooding and erosion and accelerates saltwater intrusion; extreme high tides that occurred once per century are projected to occur at least annually by 2100.


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