Les phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes, une conséquence des ...
Ainsi, au lieu de se demander si une vague de chaleur extrême est causée par les changements climatiques, ils évaluent les probabilités que les changements ...
En 2004, des chercheurs ont cependant découvert
Il y a aussi peu que 15 ans, les scientifiques croyaient qu’il était impossible de déterminer si une catastrophe météorologique était causée par des changements climatiques d’origine anthropique. La physique de la météo était selon eux si complexe qu’il était tout simplement trop difficile de connaître précisément le rôle joué par les changements climatiques dans une inondation, une vague de chaleur, un feu incontrôlé ou une sécheresse. <anchor>En 2004, des chercheurs ont cependant découvert</anchor> qu’ils pouvaient analyser des données sur la météo et effectuer des simulations par ordinateur des changements climatiques pour déterminer l’influence du réchauffement planétaire – le « stéroïde » qui dope les variations naturelles de notre climat – sur les probabilités qu’un phénomène météorologique extrême en particulier se produise. Ainsi, au lieu de se demander si une vague de chaleur extrême est causée par les changements climatiques, ils évaluent les probabilités que les changements climatiques soient à l’origine d’un tel phénomène. Ils ne parviennent donc pas à confirmer ou à infirmer que les changements climatiques sont la cause d’une vague de chaleur, mais arrivent plutôt à une réponse du genre « les changements climatiques ont rendu la vague de chaleur 10 fois plus probable » ou « il y avait 90 % de chance que la vague de chaleur survienne en raison des changements climatiques. »
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 | Nature
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 \| Nature

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- Published: 02 December 2004

# Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003

- [Peter A. Stott](#auth-Peter_A_-Stott-Aff1) [1](#Aff1),
- [D. A. Stone](#auth-D__A_-Stone-Aff2-Aff3) [2](#Aff2), [3](#Aff3) &
- [M. R. Allen](#auth-M__R_-Allen-Aff2) [2](#Aff2)

[_Nature_](/) **volume 432**, pages 610–614 (2004) [Cite this article](#citeas)

- 19k Accesses

- 1192 Citations

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A [Corrigendum](https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04099) to this article was published on 25 August 2005

## Abstract

The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest ad 1500[1](/articles/nature03089#ref-CR1 "Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M. & Wanner, H. European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500. Science 303, 1499–1503 (2004)"), [2](/articles/nature03089#ref-CR2 "Schär, C. et al. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427, 332–336 (2004)"), [3](/articles/nature03089#ref-CR3 "Beniston, M. The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, doi: 10.1029/2003GL018857 (2004)"), [4](/articles/nature03089#ref-CR4 "Black, E., Blackburn, M., Harrison, G. & Methven, J. Factors contributing to the summer 2003 European heatwave. Weather 59, 217–223 (2004)"), and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy[5](/articles/nature03089#ref-CR5 "Institut de Veille Sanitaire. Impact sanitaire de la vague chalaire d'aout 2003 en France. Bilan et perspectives. 〈                     http://www.invs.sante.fr/publications/2003/bilan-chaleur-1103                                        〉 (2003)."). It is an ill-posed question whether the 2003 heatwave was caused, in a simple deterministic sense, by a modification of the external influences on climate—for example, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere—because almost any such weather event might have occurred by chance in an unmodified climate. However, it is possible to estimate by how much human activities may have increased the risk of the occurrence of such a heatwave[6](/articles/nature03089#ref-CR6 "Palmer, T. N. & Räisänen, J. Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature 415, 512–514 (2002)"), [7](/articles/nature03089#ref-CR7 "Allen, M. R. Liability for climate change. Nature 421, 891–892 (2003)"), [8](/articles/nature03089#ref-CR8 "Stone, D. A. & Allen, M. R. The end-to-end attribution problem: From emissions to impacts. Clim. Change (in the press)"). Here we use this conceptual framework to estimate the contribution of human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants to the risk of the occurrence of unusually high mean summer temperatures throughout a large region of continental Europe. Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%)[9](/articles/nature03089#ref-CR9 "IPCC Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Houghton, J. T. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001)") that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude.

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**Figure 1: June–August temperature anomalies (relative to 1961–90 mean, in K) over the region shown in inset.**

![](//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fnature03089/MediaObjects/41586_2004_Article_BFnature03089_Fig1_HTML.jpg)

**Figure 2: Power spectra of European mean summer temperature.**

![](//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fnature03089/MediaObjects/41586_2004_Article_BFnature03089_Fig2_HTML.jpg)

**Figure 3: Estimated likelihood functions for anthropogenic and natural contributions to European summer temperature changes.**

![](//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fnature03089/MediaObjects/41586_2004_Article_BFnature03089_Fig3_HTML.jpg)

**Figure 4: Change in risk of mean European summer temperatures exceeding the 1.6 K threshold.**

![](//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fnature03089/MediaObjects/41586_2004_Article_BFnature03089_Fig4_HTML.jpg)

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## Acknowledgements

P.A.S. was supported by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, D.A.S. by a Wellcome Trust Showcase Award, and M.R.A. received partial support from the NOAA/DoE International Detection and Attribution Group.

## Author information

### Authors and Affiliations

1. Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK

Peter A. Stott

2. Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK

D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen

3. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, OX1 3PS, Oxford, UK

D. A. Stone


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### Corresponding author

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## Ethics declarations

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## About this article

### Cite this article

Stott, P., Stone, D. & Allen, M. Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003.
_Nature_ **432**, 610–614 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03089

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- Received: 21 May 2004

- Accepted: 05 October 2004

- Issue Date: 02 December 2004

- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03089


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