Changement climatique : les pays fragiles d'Afrique payent le plus ...
Il ressort d'une nouvelle étude du FMI que le changement climatique entraîne effectivement des coûts macroéconomiques plus durables dans les ...
Nos estimations
Par ailleurs, les chocs climatiques exacerbent les facteurs de fragilité, comme les conflits et la faim, et donc les effets qu’ils ont sur l’économie et le bien-être des populations. <anchor>Nos estimations</anchor> indiquent que dans un scénario d’émissions élevées, toutes choses étant égales par ailleurs, le nombre de décès dus aux conflits en pourcentage de la population pourrait augmenter de près de 10 % dans les pays fragiles d’ici à 2060. Dans ces pays, le changement climatique ferait aussi basculer 50 millions de personnes supplémentaires dans la famine d’ici 2060.
Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

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## Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

Author/Editor:

[Laura Jaramillo](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Laura+Jaramillo&name=Laura Jaramillo)
;
[Aliona Cebotari](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Aliona+Cebotari&name=Aliona Cebotari)
;
[Yoro Diallo](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Yoro+Diallo&name=Yoro Diallo)
;
[Rhea Gupta](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Rhea+Gupta&name=Rhea Gupta)
;
[Yugo Koshima](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Yugo+Koshima&name=Yugo Koshima)
;
[Chandana Kularatne](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Chandana+Kularatne&name=Chandana Kularatne)
;
[Jeong Dae Lee](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Jeong+Dae+Lee&name=Jeong Dae Lee)
;
[Sidra Rehman](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Sidra+Rehman&name=Sidra Rehman)
;
[Kalin I Tintchev](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Kalin+I+Tintchev&name=Kalin I Tintchev)
;
[Fang Yang](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Fang+Yang&name=Fang Yang)

Publication Date:

August 30, 2023

Electronic Access:

[Free Download](/-/media/Files/Publications/Staff-Climate-Notes/2023/English/CLNEA2023001.ashx).

Use the free [Adobe Acrobat Reader](http://www.imf.org/adobe) to view this PDF file



Summary:

Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) already face higher temperatures than other countries and will be more exposed to extreme heat and weather events going forward. Using innovative approaches, the paper finds that in FCS, climate vulnerability and underlying fragilities—namely conflict, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, and weak capacity—exacerbate each other, amplifying the negative impact on people and economies. FCS suffer more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries due to climate shocks because their underlying fragilities amplify the impact of shocks, in particular in agriculture. At the same time, climate shocks worsen underlying fragilities, namely conflict. Macro-critical adaptation policies are needed to facilitate the immediate response to climate shocks and to build climate resilience over time. Sizeable and sustained international support—especially grants, concessional financing and capacity development—is urgent to avoid worse outcomes, including forced displacement and migration. The IMF is stepping up support to FCS in dealing with climate challenges through carefully tailored policy advice, financing, and capacity development.

Series:

Staff Climate Note No 2023/001


Subject:

[Climate change](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Subject?subject=Climate change) [Climate finance](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Subject?subject=Climate finance) [Climate policy](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Subject?subject=Climate policy) [Economic sectors](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Subject?subject=Economic sectors) [Environment](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Subject?subject=Environment) [Financial crises](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Subject?subject=Financial crises) [Natural disasters](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Subject?subject=Natural disasters) [Population and demographics](/en/Publications/Publications-By-Subject?subject=Population and demographics)

Frequency:

occasional

##### English

Publication Date:

August 30, 2023


ISBN/ISSN:

9798400252082/2789-0600

Stock No:

CLNEA2023001

Format:

Paper

Pages:

51

Please address any questions about this title to [publications@imf.org](mailto:publications@imf.org)

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