Climate Driver Update - Bureau of Meteorology
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean are ENSO- ...
climate models
Three of 7 <anchor>climate models</anchor> suggest the possibility of SSTs in the tropical Pacific exceeding the La Niña threshold (below −0.8 °C) from October, while the remaining 4 models, including the Bureau's, suggest SSTs are likely to remain at ENSO-neutral values (between −0.8 °C to +0.8 °C ) throughout the forecast period. This means it is possible a La Niña may develop in coming months.
Climate Model Summary, Bureau of Meteorology
Climate Model Summary, Bureau of Meteorology

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- Climate Model Summary

# Climate Model Summary

Issued 12 September 2024 Updated 12 September 2024

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Product code: IDCKGL0000

Australian climate is influenced by sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific and Indian oceans.
This page provides information on Pacific and Indian ocean outlooks for the coming six months based on a survey of international climate models.

These charts are also available in the [Climate Driver Update](/climate/enso/), along with written details, more charts, and information about other climate drivers.


**Further details:** [Climate Driver Update](/climate/enso/) . [Climate Outlooks](/climate/outlooks/#/overview/influences)

- [Overview](#overview)
- [Pacific Ocean](#nino34)
- [Indian Ocean](#iod)
- [Bureau model](#bomModel)
- [Models](#details)
- [Related information](#related)

### Average of international model outlooks for NINO3.4

Graphs representing the description above.

### Average of international model outlooks for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.

The arrows on the dials indicate the combined average of monthly outlooks from a survey of international global climate models. Note that the individual model runs vary around the average.

More information:

- [Models](#tabs=Models)
- [El Niño and La Niña (ENSO)](/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=enso)
- [Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)](/climate/iod/)
- [About NINO and IOD indices](/climate/enso/indices/about.shtml)
- [Map of NINO and IOD regions](/climate/influences/images/indice-map-580px.png "Map of NINO and IOD regions")

## NINO3.4 covers the central Pacific region.

### Graphs

Monthly data from each model

Graph details

The graphs are based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.

These graphs show the average forecast value of
NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the
blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line,
there is an increased chance of El Niño.

More information:

- [About the NINO3.4 index](/climate/enso/indices/about.shtml)
- [ENSO](/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=enso)
- [El Niño](/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=elnino)
- [La Niña](/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=lanina)

### Graphs

Monthly data from each model

Graph details

The graphs are based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.

Thse graphs show the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for
the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an
increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then
there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.


More information:

- [About IOD](/climate/iod/)
- [About the IOD index](/climate/enso/indices/about.shtml)

## Sea surface temperature graphs

Australian climate is influenced by sea surface temperature and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific, Indian and Southern ocean regions. [Specific regions](/climate/influences/images/map-indices.png "Map of Niño and IOD (DMI) regions") are monitored, as they can indicate the presence, or potential development, of ENSO (El Niño/La Niña), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases and Southern Annular Modes.

## IOD and Relative Niño index graphs

Niño3.4Niño3Niño4IOD

## Niño34 predictions for the next 5 months

## Niño34 probabilities

Product code: IDCK000073

More information:

- [About Bureau model (ACCESS-S)](/climate/ahead/about/model/access.shtml)
- [Bureau model archive](/climate/ocean/outlooks/)

## Model details

The models used within our survey are listed below with links to their agency homepages, model output and technical information about the model.

### [Further information about these models](/climate/model-summary/model-summary-table.shtml)

## The webpage

This webpage surveys the latest output from several reputable climate models developed at leading international climate agencies. Data from these models is analysed and displayed in graphs and dials to show how temperature patterns in the Indian and Pacific ocean are likely to change over the coming six-months. These patterns in the oceans have been shown to have a significant impact on Australian temperature and rainfall patterns (e.g. cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean during La Niña events is typically associated with increased rainfall and cooler daytime temperatures in Australia).

When the models are in agreement, then there is higher confidence in the model outlooks. When the models are showing a large spread or large variety of outcomes, there is a larger amount of uncertainty associated with the forecast.

## The models

All the models included in this page have been documented in the peer-reviewed international scientific literature and have skill in predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean patterns. They are all coupled General Circulation Models, and hence simulate both atmospheric and oceanic processes using physics rather than statistics. Most have been run routinely for a number of years and are subject to regular revision and update with the aim of continuous improvement. They represent the state-of-the-art of climate prediction systems and offer useful guidance up to about nine months. The majority of models used in our survey are formally recognised by the World Meteorological Organization as Global Producing Centres for long-range forecasts.

## Update schedule

The Climate Model Summary is updated on the 12th of each month (or the next working day following the 12th) when model data becomes available. Data for the Bureau's model, ACCESS–S, is updated fortnightly along with several other models that also provide more frequent updates during the month.

## The ensemble technique

All models use an ensemble method, where several forecasts are run at the same time using slightly different initial conditions. While all models use ensemble techniques, the number of ensembles differs for each model.

## Important note

The data presented on these pages is the 'ensemble mean' which is the average of all the model-runs performed by each model, each month. The ensemble mean therefore flattens out the potential forecast outcomes and doesn't show the full spread of the possible forecast scenarios.

## The dials

The ENSO and IOD dials (from the Overview section) are calculated by simply averaging the ensemble means from all the models surveyed. Values are not representative of the potential spread of the forecast outcomes. Therefore, the dials are intended to be used as a quick reference to determine whether the models are showing a warming trend, a cooling trend, or neither. More information is provided in the graphs presented in other sections.

### Background information

- [ENSO](/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=enso)
  - [El Niño](/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=elnino)
  - [La Niña](/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=lanina)
- [IOD](/climate/iod/)
- [About NINO and IOD indices](/climate/enso/indices/about.shtml)
- [Map of NINO and IOD regions](/climate/influences/images/map-indices.png "Map of NINO and IOD regions")
- [Anomaly](/lam/glossary/apagegl.shtml)

### Related sites

- [WMOENSO update](http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html)
- [NOAAENSO discussion](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html)
- [IRI model comparison site](http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html)

## History

- ### [Previous model summaries](/climate/model-summary/archive.shtml)


Model data are provided for Bureau of Meteorology use by the agencies detailed in the [Models](#tabs=Models) section. Respective agency copyright applies to these data.

[Calendar](/climate/calendar/climate-watch-calendar.ics "Subscribe to Climate Watch calendar")

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**on Friday 13 September 2024 (UTC)**

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