El Niño: weltweites Extremwetter - Oxfam Deutschland
Die Auswirkungen von El Niño sind in großen Teilen Afrikas sowie in Süd- und Mittelamerika, in der Karibik, in Asien und im Pazifik zu spüren. Europa ist ...
sagen allerdings voraus
Wie genau El Niño und der weltweite Klimawandel in einem Zusammenhang stehen, wird noch erforscht. Einige Forscher <anchor>sagen allerdings voraus</anchor>, dass besonders intensive El Niños aufgrund des Klimawandels häufiger als in der Vergangenheit auftreten könnten.
Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming | Nature
Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming \| Nature

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- Published: 22 April 1999

# Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming

- [A. Timmermann](#auth-A_-Timmermann-Aff1) [1](#Aff1),
- [J. Oberhuber](#auth-J_-Oberhuber-Aff2) [2](#Aff2),
- [A. Bacher](#auth-A_-Bacher-Aff1) [1](#Aff1),
- [M. Esch](#auth-M_-Esch-Aff1) [1](#Aff1),
- [M. Latif](#auth-M_-Latif-Aff1) [1](#Aff1) &
- …
- [E. Roeckner](#auth-E_-Roeckner-Aff1) [1](#Aff1)

Show authors

[_Nature_](/) **volume 398**, pages 694–697 (1999) [Cite this article](#citeas)

- 4329 Accesses

- 967 Citations

- 34 Altmetric

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## Abstract

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest natural interannual climate fluctuation[1](/articles/19505#ref-CR1 "Philander, S. G. H. El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation (Academic, San Diego, 1990)."). ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and has large effects on the ecology of the region, but it also influences the entire global climate system and affects the societies and economies of manycountries[2](/articles/19505#ref-CR2 "Glantz, M. H., Katz, R. W. & Nicholls, N. Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1991)."). ENSO can be understood as an irregular low-frequency oscillation between a warm (El Niño) and a cold (La Niña) state. The strong El Niños of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, along with the more frequent occurrences of El Niños during the past few decades, raise the question of whether human-induced ‘greenhouse’ warming affects, or will affect, ENSO[3](/articles/19505#ref-CR3 "Trenberth, K. & Hoar, T. The 1990–1995 El Niño–Southern Oscillation event: Longest on record. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 57–60 (1996)."). Several global climate models have been applied to transient greenhouse-gas-induced warming simulations to address this question[4](/articles/19505#ref-CR4 "Knutson, T. R., Manabe, S. & Gu, D. Simulated ENSO in a global coupled ocean–atmosphere model: multidecadal amplitude modulation and CO2sensitivity. J. Clim. 10, 138–161 (1997)."), [6](/articles/19505#ref-CR6 "Meehl, G. A., Brantstator, G. W. & Washington, W. M. Tropical Pacific interannual variability and CO2climate change. J. Clim. 6, 42–63 (1993)."), but the results have been debated owing to the inability of the models to fully simulate ENSO (because of their coarse equatorial resolution)[7](/articles/19505#ref-CR7 "Cane, M. A. et al. Twentieth-century sea surface temperature trends. Science 275, 957–960 (1997)."). Here we present results from a global climate model with sufficient resolution in the tropics to adequately represent the narrow equatorial upwelling and low-frequency waves. When the model is forced by a realistic future scenario of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, more frequent El-Niño-like conditions and stronger cold events in the tropical Pacific Ocean result.

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**Figure 1: Simulated temperature trends in equatorial waters.**

![](//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2F19505/MediaObjects/41586_1999_Article_BF19505_Fig1_HTML.gif)

**Figure 2: Simulated sea-surface-temperature anomalies.**

![](//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2F19505/MediaObjects/41586_1999_Article_BF19505_Fig2_HTML.gif)

**Figure 3: Interannual variability of observed and simulated SST anomalies.**

![](//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2F19505/MediaObjects/41586_1999_Article_BF19505_Fig3_HTML.gif)

**Figure 4: Atmospheric and oceanic model sensitivity.**

![](//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2F19505/MediaObjects/41586_1999_Article_BF19505_Fig4_HTML.gif)

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## Acknowledgements

We thank T. P. Barnett for discussion and M. Münnich for help with data processing. This work was sponsored by the German government under its programme ‘Klimavariabilität und Signalanalyse’ and by the European Union through its ‘SINTEX’ programme. The climate model integrations were performed at the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum.

## Author information

### Authors and Affiliations

1. Max-Planck-Institut fr Meteorologie,

A. Timmermann, A. Bacher, M. Esch, M. Latif & E. Roeckner

2. Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146, Hamburg, Germany

J. Oberhuber


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## About this article

### Cite this article

Timmermann, A., Oberhuber, J., Bacher, A. _et al._ Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming.
_Nature_ **398**, 694–697 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1038/19505

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- Received: 21 December 1998

- Accepted: 22 February 1999

- Issue Date: 22 April 1999

- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/19505


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