Como o avanço da Inteligência Artificial deve impactar o futuro do ...
Segundo dados do estudo, a automação e a IA devem eliminar cerca de 85 milhões de empregos globalmente até 2025, enquanto cria novas ...
The Future of Employment
Neste cenário de transformações promovidas pela ascensão da automação no mercado de trabalho brasileiro, é possível fazer uma reflexão a partir dos dados do estudo “ <anchor>The Future of Employment</anchor>”, da Universidade de Oxford, que analisou mais de 700 profissões nos Estados Unidos e avaliou a probabilidade de automação em cada uma delas, e aplicar esses insights ao mercado brasileiro, utilizando informações do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), bem como de outras fontes relevantes.
Oxford Martin School | Oxford Martin School
Oxford Martin School \| Oxford Martin School

Toggle MenuSearch

- [About](/about/ "About Us")
- [Programmes](/programmes/ "About our Research Programmes")
- [Publications](/publications/ "View our Publications")
- [News](/news/ "Latest News and Blogs")
- [Events](/events/ "Forthcoming Events")
- [People](/people "People Listings")
- [Contact](/contact/ "Get in Touch")

- [Environment](/environment/ "Research highlights by theme - Environment")
- [Health](/health/ "Research highlights by theme - Health")
- [Society](/society/ "Research highlights by theme - Society")
- [Economics](/economics/ "Research highlights by theme - Economics")

Close SearchSearch

### The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

01 September 2013

Share


[X](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=The%20Future%20of%20Employment%3A%20How%20susceptible%20are%20jobs%20to%20computerisation%3F&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk%2Fpublications%2Fthe-future-of-employment "Share on Twitter / X") [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk%2Fpublications%2Fthe-future-of-employment&title=The%20Future%20of%20Employment%3A%20How%20susceptible%20are%20jobs%20to%20computerisation%3F}&source=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk%2Fpublications%2Fthe-future-of-employment "Share on LinkedIn") [Facebook](https://facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk%2Fpublications%2Fthe-future-of-employment "Share on Facebook") [Copy LinkCopied!](javascript:void(0); "Copy Link")

##### Carl Benedikt Frey & Michael Osborne

[View Journal Article / Working Paper](https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf)

The authors examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation, by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier.

Based on these estimates, they examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment.

According to their estimates, about 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk. They further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation.

##### Related Programmes

[**Future of Work**\
\
Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Work](/future-of-work/ "Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Work")[![Future of Employment](https://oms-www.transforms.svdcdn.com/production/images/Publications/Future_of_Employment.jpg?w=250&q=90&auto=format&fit=crop&dm=1559570314&s=04dcf996902aa62280347914ebe578bd)](https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf "View Publication")

##### Key Authors

[**Carl Benedikt Frey**\
\
Director](https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/people/carl-benedikt-frey) [**Michael Osborne**\
\
Professor of Machine Learning](https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/people/michael-osborne)

##### Other Recent Journal Article / Working Papers

[![The Future of International Scientific Assessments of AI’s Risks](https://oms-www.transforms.svdcdn.com/production/images/The%20Future%20of%20International%20Scientific%20Assessments%20of%20AIs%20Risks.PNG?w=150&q=90&auto=format&fit=crop&dm=1725446830&s=2adf6876ae13a8e45d277fcda0e3ce74)\
\
The Future of International Scientific Assessments of AI’s Risks\
\
Publications\
\
\- 29th August 2024](https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/the-future-of-international-scientific-assessments-of-ais-risks) [![Bmc](https://oms-www.transforms.svdcdn.com/production/images/bmc.png?w=150&q=90&auto=format&fit=crop&dm=1705938416&s=8be930976ae734a7bee5a0173c015f95)\
\
Opportunities to produce food from substantially less land\
\
Publications\
\
\- 24th June 2024](https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/opportunities-to-produce-food-from-substantially-less-land) [![nature](https://oms-www.transforms.svdcdn.com/production/images/Logos/nature_new.png?w=150&q=90&auto=format&fit=crop&dm=1594984319&s=700b19bcf16d5bb1f7e7851cd3fd232e)\
\
Ensemble of global climate simulations for temperature in historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios from HadAM4\
\
Publications\
\
\- 4th June 2024](https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/ensemble-of-global-climate-simulations-for-temperature-in-historical-1-5-c-and-2-0-c-scenarios-from-hadam4) [![Journal of development economics](https://oms-www.transforms.svdcdn.com/production/images/journal-of-development-economics.jpg?w=150&q=90&auto=format&fit=crop&dm=1699282704&s=60937995f388a80fd5866b5c1ecf2992)\
\
Altruism in governance: Insights from randomized training for Pakistan's junior ministers\
\
Publications\
\
\- 31st May 2024](https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/altruism-in-governance-insights-from-randomized-training-for-pakistans-junior-ministers) [![OMTEC WP 2022 9](https://oms-www.transforms.svdcdn.com/production/images/OMTEC-WP-2022-9.PNG?w=150&q=90&auto=format&fit=crop&dm=1668000268&s=4861392b5de77890abdd49e4811ccf6c)\
\
Data-Biased Innovation: Directed Technological Change and the Future of Artificial Intelligence\
\
Publications\
\
\- 21st May 2024](https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/data-biased-innovation-directed-technological-change-and-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence) [![Chi 2024](https://oms-www.transforms.svdcdn.com/production/images/chi%202024.jpg?w=150&q=90&auto=format&fit=crop&dm=1715855622&s=8f6539c79033d0e7cc8d25b603532671)\
\
CHAITok: A Proof-of-Concept System Supporting Children's Sense of Data Autonomy on Social Media\
\
Publications\
\
\- 11th May 2024](https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/chaitok-a-proof-of-concept-system-supporting-childrens-sense-of-data-autonomy-on-social-media)

Oxford Martin School

University of Oxford

34 Broad Street

Oxford

OX1 3BD

United Kingdom

[info@oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk](mailto:info@oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk)

[Tel: +44 (0)1865 287430](tel:+441865287430)

[Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/oxfordmartinschool "Find us on Facebook") [Twitter](https://twitter.com/oxmartinschool "Find us on Twitter / X") [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/company/oxford-martin-school/ "Find us on LinkedIn") [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/user/21school "Find us on YouTube") [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/oxmartinschool/ "Find us on Instagram")

[Subscribe to our newsletter](http://eepurl.com/dntQhn "Subscribe to our newsletter")

- [About](/about/ "About Us")
- [Programmes](/programmes/ "About our Research Programmes")
- [Publications](/publications/ "View our Publications")
- [News](/news/ "Latest News and Blogs")
- [Events](/events/ "Forthcoming Events")
- [People](/people "People Listings")
- [Contact](/contact/ "Get in Touch")

[Environment](/environment/ "Research filtered by theme - Environment")

- [Policy and impact](/environment/policy-impact/ "Policy and Impact filtered by theme - Environment")
- [Publications](/environment/publications/ "Featured publications from theme - Environment")
- [Videos](/environment/videos/ "Featured videos from theme - Environment")

[Health](/health/ "Research filtered by theme - Health")

- [Policy and impact](/health/policy-impact/ "Policy and Impact filtered by theme - Health")
- [Publications](/health/publications/ "Featured publications from theme - Health")
- [Videos](/health/videos/ "Featured videos from theme - Health")

[Society](/society/ "Research filtered by theme - Society")

- [Policy and impact](/society/policy-impact/ "Policy and Impact filtered by theme - Society")
- [Publications](/society/publications/ "Featured publications from theme - Society")
- [Videos](/society/videos/ "Featured videos from theme - Society")

[Economics](/economics/ "Research filtered by theme - Economics")

- [Policy and impact](/economics/policy-impact/ "Policy and Impact filtered by theme - Economics")
- [Publications](/economics/publications/ "Featured publications from theme - Economics")
- [Videos](/economics/videos/ "Featured videos from theme - Economics")

© 2024 Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

- [Accessibility](/accessibility/ "Accessibility Statement")
- [Privacy](/privacy/ "Privacy Policy")

## Keep in touch

If you found this page useful, sign up to our monthly digest of the latest news and events


[Subscribe](http://eepurl.com/dntQhn)