世界経済は、各地で成長がまちまちで、この先には数々の課題が ...
われわれの最新の「世界経済見通し」によると、世界経済の成長率は今年と来年に約3.2%で安定し、総合インフレ率の中央値は2024年末の2.8%から2025年末には ...
AIのポテンシャルを活かす
人工知能も、生産性が向上するとの期待が高まる要因である。それが実現する可能性はあるが、労働・金融市場が深刻な混乱に直面する可能性も高い。 <anchor>AIのポテンシャルを活かす</anchor> には、各国がデジタルインフラを改善し、人的資本に投資し、グローバルな規則の策定で協調することが不可欠である。
AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity.
AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity.

[![logo](./-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Logo/IMF-Blog-Color-Logo-Mobile.ashx)![logo](/-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Logo/IMF-logo-white.ashx)](/en/Blogs)

![](/Assets/IMF/blog/img/svg/search-icon.svg)

![](/Assets/IMF/blog/img/svg/search-icon.svg)

- [Chart of the Week](/en/Blogs/chart-of-the-week)
- [Regions](/en/Blogs/regions)
- [Topics](/en/Blogs/topics)
- [Authors](/en/Blogs/authors)
- [Archive](/en/Blogs/archive)
- [IMF Home](/en/Home)

![](/-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Articles/Hero/2024/01/BLOG-2099x600-MD-AI-BLOG-X-poser-Adobe-Stock.ashx)![](/-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Articles/Hero/2024/01/BLOG-2099x600-MD-AI-BLOG-X-poser-Adobe-Stock.ashx)

Credit: X-poser/Adobe Stock

English

[العربية](/ar/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity "العربية") [español](/es/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity "español") [français](/fr/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity "français") [日本語](/ja/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity "日本語") [русский](/ru/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity "русский") [中文](/zh/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity "中文")

[Artificial intelligence](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Artificial intelligence)

# AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity.  ![ ](/Assets/IMF/blog/img/social-share-icon.png)   ![ ](/Assets/IMF/blog/img/svg/x.svg)

AI will affect almost 40 percent of jobs around the world, replacing some and complementing others. We need a careful balance of policies to tap its potential

[Kristalina Georgieva](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/authors?author=Kristalina Georgieva)

January 14, 2024

We are on the brink of a technological revolution that could jumpstart
productivity, boost global growth and raise incomes around the world. Yet
it could also replace jobs and deepen inequality.

The rapid advance of artificial intelligence has captivated the world,
causing both excitement and alarm, and raising important questions about
its potential impact on the global economy. The net effect is difficult to
foresee, as AI will ripple through economies in complex ways. What we can
say with some confidence is that we will need to come up with a set of
policies to safely leverage the vast potential of AI for the [benefit of humanity](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/03/08/sp031424-kings-college-cambridge-kristalina-georgieva).

**Reshaping the Nature of Work**

In [a new analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2024/01/14/Gen-AI-Artificial-Intelligence-and-the-Future-of-Work-542379?cid=bl-com-SDNEA2024001), IMF staff examine the potential impact
of AI on the global labor market. Many studies have predicted the
likelihood that jobs will be replaced by AI. Yet we know that in many cases
AI is likely to complement human work. The IMF analysis captures both these
forces.

The findings are striking: almost 40 percent of global employment is
exposed to AI. Historically, automation and information technology have
tended to affect routine tasks, but one of the things that sets AI apart is
its ability to impact high-skilled jobs. As a result, advanced economies
face greater risks from AI—but also more opportunities to leverage its
benefits—compared with emerging market and developing economies.

In advanced economies, about 60 percent of jobs may be impacted by AI.
Roughly half the exposed jobs may benefit from AI integration, enhancing
productivity. For the other half, AI applications may execute key tasks
currently performed by humans, which could lower labor demand, leading to
lower wages and reduced hiring. In the most extreme cases, some of these
jobs may disappear.

In emerging markets and low-income countries, by contrast, AI exposure is
expected to be 40 percent and 26 percent, respectively. These findings
suggest emerging market and developing economies face fewer immediate
disruptions from AI. At the same time, many of these countries don’t have
the infrastructure or skilled workforces to harness the benefits of AI,
raising the risk that over time the technology could worsen inequality
among nations.

![](/-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Articles/Blog-Charts/2024/January/AI-MD-Blog-Chart-1.ashx)

AI could also affect income and wealth inequality within countries. We may
see polarization within income brackets, with workers who can harness AI
seeing an increase in their productivity and wages—and those who cannot
falling behind. [Research](https://www.nber.org/papers/w31161) shows that AI can help less experienced
workers enhance their productivity more quickly. Younger workers may find it
easier to exploit opportunities, while older workers could struggle to
adapt.

The effect on labor income will largely depend on the extent to which AI
will complement high-income workers. If AI significantly complements
higher-income workers, it may lead to a disproportionate increase in their
labor income. Moreover, gains in productivity from firms that adopt AI will
likely boost capital returns, which may also favor high earners. Both of
these phenomena could exacerbate inequality.

In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality, a troubling
trend that policymakers must proactively address to prevent the technology
from further stoking social tensions. It is crucial for countries to
establish comprehensive social safety nets and offer retraining programs
for vulnerable workers. In doing so, we can make the AI transition more
inclusive, protecting livelihoods and curbing inequality.

**An Inclusive AI-Driven World**

AI is being integrated into businesses around the world at remarkable
speed, underscoring the need for policymakers to act.

To help countries craft the right policies, the IMF has developed an AI
Preparedness Index that measures readiness in areas such as digital
infrastructure, human-capital and labor-market policies, innovation and
economic integration, and regulation and ethics.

The human-capital and labor-market policies component, for example,
evaluates elements such as years of schooling and job-market mobility, as
well as the proportion of the population covered by social safety nets. The
regulation and ethics component assesses the adaptability to digital
business models of a country’s legal framework and the presence of strong
governance for effective enforcement.

Using the index, IMF staff assessed the readiness of 125 countries. The
findings reveal that wealthier economies, including advanced and some
emerging market economies, tend to be better equipped for AI adoption than
low-income countries, though there is considerable variation across
countries. Singapore, the United States and Denmark posted the highest
scores on the index, based on their strong results in all four categories
tracked.

![](/-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Articles/Blog-Charts/2024/January/AI-MD-Blog-Chart-2.ashx)

Guided by the insights from the AI Preparedness Index, advanced economies
should prioritize AI innovation and integration while developing robust
regulatory frameworks. This approach will cultivate a safe and responsible
AI environment, helping maintain public trust. For emerging market and
developing economies, the priority should be laying a strong foundation
through investments in digital infrastructure and a digitally competent
workforce.

The AI era is upon us, and it is still within our power to ensure it brings
prosperity for all.

_—For more on artificial intelligence and the economy, see the_
_[December issue](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/Editor-letter-the-AI-awakening) of Finance & Development, the IMF’s quarterly magazine._

_[![](/-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Articles/Blog-Charts/2023/November/fdenglishdec23ci-final.ashx?w=350)](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues#:~:text=DECEMBER%202023%3A%20ARTIFICIAL%20INTELLIGENCE)_

###### Recent

[![](/-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Articles/Hero/2024/06/blog-2099x600-mapping-the-worlds-readiness-for-ai-c-imaginima-istock-by-getty-images.ashx?h=600&w=2099&la=en)](/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/25/mapping-the-worlds-readiness-for-artificial-intelligence-shows-prospects-diverge)

[Artificial intelligence](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Artificial intelligence )

##### [Mapping the World's Readiness for Artificial Intelligence Shows Prospects Diverge](/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/25/mapping-the-worlds-readiness-for-artificial-intelligence-shows-prospects-diverge )

June 25, 2024

[New AI Preparedness Index Dashboard tracks 174 economies based on their digital infrastructure, human capital, labor policies, innovation, integration and regulation](/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/25/mapping-the-worlds-readiness-for-artificial-intelligence-shows-prospects-diverge)

[![](/-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Articles/Hero/2024/06/blog-2099x600-fiscal-policy-can-help-broaden-the-gains-of-ai-c-xh4d-istock-by-getty-images-final.ashx?h=600&w=2099&la=en)](/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/17/fiscal-policy-can-help-broaden-the-gains-of-ai-to-humanity)

[Artificial intelligence](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Artificial intelligence )

A文

##### [Fiscal Policy Can Help Broaden the Gains of AI to Humanity](/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/17/fiscal-policy-can-help-broaden-the-gains-of-ai-to-humanity )

June 17, 2024

[The AI transition will require stronger social safety nets, investment in education, and tax systems that support human workers and mitigate inequality](/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/17/fiscal-policy-can-help-broaden-the-gains-of-ai-to-humanity)

[![](/-/media/Images/IMF/FANDD/hero/2023/December/hero-editor-letter/blog2099x600fddecember-issue-coverartjun-cen.ashx?h=600&w=2098&la=en)](/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/11/30/FandD-the-AI-awakening)

[Artificial intelligence](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Artificial intelligence )

A文

##### [The AI Awakening](/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/11/30/FandD-the-AI-awakening )

November 30, 2023

[Generative AI has introduced tantalizing new possibilities. Yet the initial excitement surrounding AI has given way to genuine and growing concerns. This issue is an early attempt to understand AI’s implications for growth, jobs, inequality, and finance.](/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/11/30/FandD-the-AI-awakening)

### About the Blog

IMFBlog is a forum for the views of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and officials on pressing economic and policy issues of the day.
The IMF, based in Washington D.C., is an organization of 190 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation and financial stability around the world.
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board. [Read More](~/link.aspx?_id=93F027992D564B3392488B93E025669C&_z=z)

- [Climate](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Climate%20change)
- [Digital Money](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Fintech)
- [Gender](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Gender)

- [Financial Market](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Financial%20markets)
- [Fiscal Affairs](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Fiscal%20policy)
- [Global Economy](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Economic%20growth)

- [Monetary Policy](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Monetary%20policy)
- [People](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics?topic=Population%20and%20demographics)
- [IMF Home Page](/en/Home)

**© Copyright International Monetary Fund**