Тренды на фондовом рынке в 2024 году
Тренды 2024 года - прогнозируемые для финансовых рынков и ...
Мир в 2024 году будет сталкиваться с рядом экономических и геополитических вызовов. Это будет влиять на финансовые рынки и возможности для ...
считают
Эксперты Reuters <anchor>считают</anchor>, что с учетом всех возможных рисков в текущем году мировой экономике все же удастся избежать рецессии. Согласно их оценкам, ее подъем в 2024 году составит от 2,6%. Как правило, темпы экономического роста ниже 2,5% свидетельствуют о рецессии. То есть мировая экономика буквально пройдет по очень тонкому пределу.
Factbox-Global economy may avoid recession in 2024 By Reuters
Factbox-Global economy may avoid recession in 2024 By Reuters

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# Factbox-Global economy may avoid recession in 2024

[Economy](https://www.investing.com/news/economy)

Published12/13/2023, 11:31 AM

Updated12/14/2023, 11:00 AM

Factbox-Global economy may avoid recession in 2024

[View all comments (0)0](#comments-3255894)

![&copy; Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Dollar, Euro and Pound banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken April 28, 2017. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo](https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/trkd-images/LYNXMPEJAF0EE_L.jpg)

EUR/USD

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-

(Reuters) -A number of big banks expect global growth to slow in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and uncertainties in the world's two largest economies, although they see slim chances of a recession.

The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll of economists showed, and is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2024.

While the global economy may avoid a recession, Europe and the United Kingdom could see a mild slowdown, according to the poll.

A soft landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path clouds the outlook.

Meanwhile, China's growth is expected to weaken amid property sector woes and faltering global demand.

Following are forecasts from major global banks:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024

GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA

AREA

Goldman 2.60% 2.10% 4.80% 0.90% 0.6% 6.3%

Sachs

Morgan 2.80% 1.90% 4.20% 0.50% -0.1% 6.4%

Stanley

UBS Global 2.60% 1.10% 4.40% 0.60%

Wealth

Management 0.6% 6.2%

Barclays 2.60% 1.20% 4.40% 0.30% 0.1% 6.2%

J.P.Morgan 2.20% 1.60% 4.90% 0.40% 0.2% 5.7%

BofA 2.8% 1.4% 4.8% 0.50% 0.1% 5.7%

Global

Research

Deutsche 2.4% 0.6% 4.7% 0.20% 0.3% 6.0%

Bank

Citigroup 1.9% 1.1% 4.6% -0.20% -0.30% 5.7%

U.S. inflation (annual Federal funds

Y/Y for 2024) target rate (Dec

'24)

Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.40% 2.50%

4%-4.25%

Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70% 4.375%

UBS Global 4.50%-4.75%

Wealth

Management

Wells Fargo 2.50% 2.60% 4.75%-5.00%

Barclays 2.70%

4.5%-4.75%

J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50%

4%-4.25%

BofA Global 2.80% 4.50%-4.75%

Research

Deutsche Bank 2.10% 3.63%

Citigroup 2.60% 4.50%

The Fed's main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%.

[S&P 500](/indices/us-spx-500) US 10-year [EUR/USD](/currencies/eur-usd)[USD/JPY](/currencies/usd-jpy) USD/C

target yield NY

target

Goldman Sachs 4,700 4.55% 1.10 150.00 7.15

Morgan Stanley 4,500 1 140 7.5

UBS Global 4,700 3.50% 1.12 140

Wealth 7.00

Management

Wells Fargo 4,600-4, 4.75%-5.25 1.08-1.1 136-140

800 % 2

Barclays 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20

J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.15

BofA Global 5,000 4.25% 1.15 142 6.90

Research

Deutsche Bank 5,100 4.10% 1.10 135

Societe 4,750 3.75% 1.15

Generale

Citigroup 5,100 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25

HSBC 5,000

As of 1510 GMT on Dec. 14, 2023:

S&P 500: 4726.46

US 10-year yield: 3.9562%

EUR/USD: 1.0987

![© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Dollar, Euro and Pound banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken April 28, 2017. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo](https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/trkd-images/LYNXMPEJAF0EE_L.jpg)

[USD/CNY](/currencies/usd-cny): 7.1113

USD/JPY: 141.68

Factbox-Global economy may avoid recession in 2024

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