	 	 	 	 II The	Golden	Rules 	 When	you	hear	hoofbeats,	think	horses,	not	zebras. This	is	one	of	the	most	important	rules	of	deduction. 	Go	with	the	most obvious	answer	to	something,	and	go	with	what	makes	the	most	sense. 	More likely	than	not,	what	is	probable	is	what	happens,	at	least	in	this	universe. 	 Consider	generally	accepted	truths. When	observing	objects	and	attempting	to	read	conclusions	from	them, consider	any	generally	accept ed	truths	that	may	be	relevant. For	example,	consider	a	bookshelf,	with	sever al	books	at	the	back	of	the shelf,	a	box	of	jewelry	in	front	of	those	books,	and	a	family	photo	placed	against the	box	of	jewelry,	nearly	hiding	it. 	Finally,	in	front	of	the	photo,	a	tube	of chapstick	and	a	comb. Now,	a	generally	accepted	truth	is	that	people	want	their	most	commonly used	things	to	be	the	most	accessible. 	 It	just	makes	sense. 	You	can	almost guarantee	that	they	don't	read	those	books	often,	or	get	into	that	jewelry	box often. 	It	may	not	seem	like	a	tremendous	amount	of	work,	but	it	would	be	too inconvenient	to	have	to	move	that	photo	and	then	slide	that	jewelry	box	over	just to	get	to	a	book,	or	even	to	move	the	photo	to	get	to	the	jewelry. The	most	important	items	are	the	chapstick 	and	comb,	of	course,	and	the photo,	even	if	just	for	that	daily	reminder	of	family. 	Perhaps	those	books	are	the ones	they	read	a	long	time	ago	and	keep	only	for	sentimental	reasons,	and perhaps	the	jewelry	box	was	a	gift	from	a	relative,	or	just	contains	the	jewelry they	don't	often	wear. 	 Once	you	have	eliminated	the	impossible,	whatever	remains,	however improbable,	must	be	the	truth.