The purpose of this study is to develop a prediction-tool, the Medicines Optimisation Assessment Tool (MOAT), to assist hospital pharmacists identify patients at highest risk of preventable medication related problems (MRPs).~The MOAT will be developed following recommendations of the PROGnosis RESearch Strategy (PROGRESS) partnership. A prospective cohort study of 1,500 patients will be used to develop the MOAT from the medical wards of two UK hospitals. Data will be collected on prognostic factors (selected based on a review of published literature and expert opinion) for each patient, together with details of MRPs that occur. All MRPs will be reviewed by an expert panel who will grade for severity and preventability using recognised criteria. Multivariable logistic regression models will be used to determine the relationship between potential risk factors such as polypharmacy, renal impairment, and the use of 'high risk' medicines, and the study outcome of preventable medication related problems that are at least moderate in severity. Bootstrapping will be used to adjust the MOAT for optimism, and predictive performance will be assessed using calibration and discrimination. A simplified scoring system will also be developed, which will be assessed for sensitivity and specificity.~The intention of this research is to develop a prediction-tool (the MOAT), which has the potential to be adopted widely into clinical practice. If the initial research is successful in producing a prediction-tool with good predictive performance further research will be carried out to assess how feasible it would be to use the MOAT in practice, the potential efficiency savings, and an assessment of clinical risk to patients through use of the MOAT.
The purpose of this study is to develop a prediction-tool, the Medicines Optimisation Assessment Tool (MOAT), to assist hospital pharmacists identify patients at highest risk of preventable medication related problems (MRPs). This has the potential to permit pharmacists to identify and focus on the small number of patients (approximately 6%) who are likely to experience a significant MRP while in hospital.