en en de fr de en de de de de fr de en de de en en en en en de en fr en en nl fr de es en zh en it ja ru es en nl ja en en en sv hbs_lat de en en en pl en en nl en en en en en en en en en de de en en en en en en en en en en en en en en en en en en en en en en en en de da de nl de de it de de en de de de de de de de en de en de de de de en fr de de de en it de de de lb de de de de de de de
Are we out of the woods? Sitting here in Hong Kong it’s hard to believe that most of the world has almost left the pandemic behind, having found a way to deal with the health risks and move on. Only in China is the fight ongoing, but even here a change in mindset is noticeable. This is a solid positive for the global economy.
The war in Ukraine wipes out the post-Cold War benefits
Western investors are feeling the impact through higher commodity prices
Bonds’ nominal returns are low, equities are still the place to be
It’s even harder to believe the images of the human tragedies in Ukraine that we are seeing on our screens every day as innocent civilians are killed and refugees flood out of the country. What’s going on in the financial markets pales into insignificance compared with the terror of the invasion. But it’s our job to consider what it all means for investors.
As it stands, the world is faced with a geopolitical crisis that looks set to wipe out some of the benefits that have accrued since the end of the Cold War in 1989 as a result of globalization, cost efficiencies and international trade flows. This is clearly a negative and is resulting in considerable uncertainty for investors.
The Western (NATO) response to the war is very much through economic sanctions, so prices in the financial market give us a good sense of the implications of war in today’s interconnected world, and also what the implications for corporates may be from further deglobalization and higher commodity prices.
Of course it’s not easy to set out a three-month outlook when we don’t even know what next week is going to bring. To suggest that you should prepare yourself for more volatility is not particularly insightful, but it’s probably the best advice anyone can give at present.
Lower margins could dent corporate profitability
For now, financial investors are mostly feeling the impact of events in Ukraine through higher input prices in general and commodity prices in particular. The big question is what the combined impact of higher inflation and higher rates will be on economic growth and profitability. At the end of 2021 it looked like earnings could remain strong, but in the first quarter we have already seen some companies signalling that pressure on their margins could dent their profitability. And let’s not forget that corporate profitability is the linchpin that supports the global equity markets.
As well as lower margins, earnings may come under pressure from the slowdown in real economic growth that’s likely to result from the prevailing uncertainty. This is particularly the case in Europe, where markets have suffered the biggest hit.
Asian equities have less to fear from tightening
The low interest rates that have been in place for over a decade have muffled a lot of volatility. But this era is coming to an end. Monetary authorities all over the world are longing for normality, just like ordinary citizens were longing for normality during the dark days of lockdown. The Federal Reserve has already started hiking rates and the ECB feels its hand is also being forced by what is viewed as scarily high inflation in Europe.
The situation in Asia is very different because in its biggest economies – China and Japan – increases in input prices have not yet resulted in much higher consumer price inflation readings. Historically, Asian equities have struggled under a tightening US dollar rate environment but this time may be different. Asian equities lagged during the liquidity-driven rally of the past few years, but will have less to fear from the Fed’s moves because Asia’s central banks don’t need to tighten much in 2022.
Look for pricing power
As ever, our analysts and portfolio managers are carefully collecting data on prices and margins to make a call on where to reduce their exposures and where to remain invested. It looks to me that commodity producers have the most pricing power, but there is also plenty in the technology sector, where shortages are proving persistent.
The healthcare sector may also be able to display its pricing power now that demand for treatment is normalizing and as governments look set to become more willing to provide funding having been confronted with the importance of a well-funded health system during the pandemic. Quality – the ability to generate returns above the cost of capital for a sustained period of time – is likely to remain an important determinant of success, and it will be defined by pricing power.
A supportive environment for Value stocks
Although I have been taught by our quant researchers that timing factors is nigh on impossible, I still like to think that value-oriented strategies will receive further support from higher bond yields in the second quarter. Bond yields are always important for equity investors to consider as they drive the discount rates used in stock valuation models – faraway cashflows are worth less when the discount rate rises.
As yields creep higher in Europe and Japan, it seems a good idea to tilt portfolios towards shorter-duration stocks – in other words, value stocks. Personally, I would add telecoms to the list too as these are firms with strong (albeit regulated) pricing power and are benefitting from very steady demand as they head into a phase in which less capex is required as most of the necessary investments in 5G have already been made.
Time to rethink globalization and energy supplies
What began in 2020 as a scarcity of containers in Asia to ship goods to the West had by March 2022 morphed into a series of supply chain disruptions. Aggravated by the recent run-up in oil and gas prices, these problems have resulted in a rethink about global interdependencies, with politicians clearly moving towards the need for national self-sufficiency. This trend started in the Trump era, when the US wanted to reduce (so far unsuccessfully) its dependence on Asian products – especially those from China.
Governments are now talking about the need to develop their own computer-chip supply chains and of course to become less dependent on imported energy. This has shifted the focus from the long-term green transition to short-term energy security. It now seems likely that natural gas and nuclear energy are going to remain important fuels, at least in the medium term, to help us navigate the green transition to net-zero by 2050.
The vilification of some energy companies looks likely to stop, and we must focus on those that are actually contributing to the transition by making investments in cleaner energy, including gas. Our engagement efforts are clearly paying off in this respect.
The US looks more attractive than Europe
The US scores well from the perspective of energy independence thanks to the shale oil revolution. What’s more, American growth looks less vulnerable than Europe’s at present, so the US seems a good place for equity investors to allocate to.
Within Europe, France has been relatively insulated from the energy shock as most of its energy comes from domestic nuclear plants, and this insulation should help President Macron’s chances of re-election in April. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been making a good impression with his mediation efforts in the Ukraine conflict. Strong and stable political leadership in Europe is welcome during tough times.
A lot rests on China
China is likely to be hitting the headlines in the second quarter. It has tried to stay out of the conflict and focus on its own internal battle against Covid so far, but can President Xi maintain that position? China siding with Russia would be explosively bad news for the markets, whereas any harmonization of China’s relations with the US would leave Russia isolated. This could lead to a quick resolution of the conflict in Ukraine and possibly a breakthrough in the protracted trade war between the US and China at a later stage. That really would be good news for the world.
Equities still more attractive than bonds
With plenty of uncertainty around, investors may be thinking about looking for safety in the fixed income markets, but as bonds’ nominal returns remain very low, they need to remember that allocating to the asset class will not generate enough returns to pay for one’s pension. Equities remains thus the place to be, we believe.
The ‘rally of everything’ that we spoke of last quarter clearly ended very early in 2022. Investors will need to be more selective, but we are not downbeat about equities’ prospects. Stocks retain their appeal as equities are backed by real assets, which tend to move in line with inflation to a certain extent. What’s more, companies generate a margin from these assets and adjust their prices when inflation bites.
Weitere Artikel zu diesem Thema
Aktien aus der Region Asien-Pazifik stehen noch im Schatten des Dollars
Aktien aus der Region Asien-Pazifik stehen noch im Schatten des Dollars
Fixed income outlook: Twin peaks
Finnland erneut Weltspitze in punkto Nachhaltigkeit
China: Vier Gründe, warum das Schlimmste überstanden ist
Quant Chart: Optimierung von Faktoren in den Emerging Markets
Fixed income outlook: Twin peaks
Besuchen Sie uns in den sozialen Medien
Sitemap Fonds - Sitemap Strategien
Die auf diesen Seiten enthaltenen Informationen dienen Marketingzwecken und sind ausschließlich für (i) qualifizierte Anleger gemäß dem Schweizer Bundesgesetz über die kollektiven Kapitalanlagen vom 23. Juni 2006 („KAG“), (ii) Professionelle Kunden gemäß Anhang II der Richtlinie über Märkte für Finanzinstrumente (2014/65/EU; „MiFID II“) mit Sitz in der Europäischen Union oder im Europäischen Wirtschaftsraum mit einer entsprechenden Lizenz zur Erbringung von Vertriebs- / Angebotshandlungen im Zusammenhang mit Finanzinstrumenten oder für (iii) solche, die hiermit aus eigener Initiative entsprechende Informationen zu spezifischen Finanzinstrumenten erfragen und als professionelle Kunden qualifizieren.
Die Fonds haben ihren Sitz in Luxemburg oder den Niederlanden. Die ACOLIN Fund Services AG, Postanschrift: Affolternstrasse 56, 8050 Zürich, agiert als Schweizer Vertreter der Fonds. UBS Switzerland AG, Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zürich, Postanschrift: Europastrasse 2, P.O. Box, CH-8152 Opfikon, fungiert als Schweizer Zahlstelle. Der Prospekt, die Key Investor Information Documents (KIIDs), die Satzung, die Jahres- und Halbjahresberichte der Fonds sind auf einfache Anfrage hin und kostenlos im beim Schweizer Vertreter ACOLIN Fund Services AG erhältlich. Die Prospekte sind auch über die Website www.robeco.ch verfügbar.
Einige Fonds, über die Informationen auf dieser Website angezeigt werden, fallen möglicherweise nicht in den Geltungsbereich des KAG und müssen daher nicht über eine entsprechende Genehmigung durch die Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht FINMA verfügen. Einige Fonds sind in Ihrem Wohnsitz- / Sitzstaat möglicherweise nicht verfügbar. Bitte überprüfen Sie den Registrierungsstatus in Ihrem jeweiligen Wohnsitz- / Sitzstaat. Um die in Ihrem Land registrierten Produkte anzuzeigen, gehen Sie bitte zur jeweiligen Länderauswahl, die auf dieser Website zu finden ist, und wählen Sie Ihr Wohnsitz- / Sitzstaat aus.
Weder Informationen noch Meinungen auf dieser Website stellen eine Aufforderung, ein Angebot oder eine Empfehlung zum Kauf, Verkauf oder einer anderweitigen Verfügung eines Finanzinstrumentes dar. Die Informationen auf dieser Webseite stellen keine Anlageberatung oder anderweitige Dienstleistung der Robeco Switzerland Ltd dar. Eine Investition in ein Produkt von Robeco Switzerland Ltd sollte erst erfolgen, nachdem die entsprechenden rechtlichen Dokumente wie Verwaltungsvorschriften, Prospekt, Jahres- und Halbjahresberichte konsultiert wurden.
Durch Klicken auf "Ich stimme zu" bestätigen Sie, dass Sie resp. die von Ihnen vertretene juristische Person eine der oben genannten Kategorien von Adressaten fallen und dass Sie die Nutzungsbedingungen für diese Website gelesen, verstanden und akzeptiert haben.