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The pair moved as high as 1.5993 during last week but could not break the psychological resistance of 1.6000 and fell strongly to 1.5823 to close for the week at 1.5835.
The sharp of Friday to the 22-day EMA level can be considered as natural, considering the resistance of 1.6000. For the next week initially we would expect some sideways move but if GBPUSD does not break below 1.5795 strongly, we would expect a retest of the recent 1.5993 and over that a break of 1.6000 should take the currency pair towards 1.6165 resistance.
However if the pair breaks below 1.5795 decisively then it should move first towards 1.5750 support of 55-day EMA and any strong break of that should take it towards 1.5650. Only a break below 1.5644 will indicate that the recent upward rally has ended and the focus can be turned back towards downside and towards 1.5000 psychological level and possibly more.
Overall our longer-term outlook stays bearish and it will only change with any decisive break over 1.6165.
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