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The most important message from the last weekly update was the expectation of the see-saw movements for the next one or two weeks between 44000 and 52000. So far, BTC behaved, and, based on the weekly closure, I am expecting it to bounce few more times before moving further down. Let’s explore the hypothesis.
After a very decisive Bearish Engulfing of the prior week, this week was closed with a Thrusting Line well below the mid point of the Engulfing. The candle typically forecasts the bearish continuation with moderate odds. If the next week candle is red, the downtrend is likely to continue.
As we can see on the daily chart at the top of the post, a bullish trend is struggling. The initial push was put on hold. I am viewing the complex combo as a consolidation before resuming the trend down.
BTC – Hourly – Short Term
The analysis of mini and micro waves leads me to believe that wave (B) is being developed as a zigzag that is very close to a text book one. If my observation is correct, in order to complete the zigzag, BTC needs a motive/diagonal wave c of B down to the area of 44000-46000, followed by a motive/diagonal wave C of (B) into 51000-52000.
We also remember the resistance level of 51079 that was identified a while ago. A daily candle should not close above 51079. If it does, a bullish trend is likely to establish.
I am viewing the BTC movements for the next week as follows:
1. The see-saw between 44000 and 52000 could continue for at least 2 more days.
2. If any daily candle does not close above 51079 (a midday spike allowed), I expect a downtrend to resume.
3. If the downtrend resumes, I expect it to fall to at least 39000, possibly to 28000-30000. This would depend on the structure of the waves down.
4. If a day closes above 51079, this would be a strong statement for a possible uptrend, though the odds are low at this point.