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Bovada, a Canadian-based online gambling site, has the Colts at 4-to-1 odds of trading for the holdout running back in November. The Steelers, at 5-to-11, are the only team he's more likely to play for, according to the site.
The reasons are obvious. Bell is a great back. The Colts need a running back. Bell is holding out. The Colts have salary cap space. And Bell appears to be stoking these flames by liking a number of Colts-related Instagram posts.
But  should the Colts want to add Bell?
It's expected to take more than $50 million over three years to satisfy Bell's salary demands. There's no question he has been worth that, but the key question is, will he be worth it over the next three seasons?
I looked at every running back since the AFL-NFL merger to have between 1,100 and 1,400 carries and 4,500 to 6,500 rushing yards in his first five seasons. (Bell is at 1,229 carries and 5,336 yards.)
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I eliminated four backs who had rushed more than 375 times in one of those seasons so backs who were overused didn't dilute the sample. I also eliminated Ray Rice, whose career ended prematurely because of domestic violence. Finally, I didn't use several backs who weren't effective catching the ball out of the backfield. (I also looked at size and there didn't appear to be a correlation.)
(While all these backs were good receivers, Bell's among the best in NFL history and his contributions in the passing game — he has had at least 75 catches for 600 yards in his last three healthy seasons — could mitigate a drop in his success running the ball.)
That leaves 17 backs. Seven  — Thurman Thomas, Tony Dorsett, Frank Gore, Ricky Watters, LeSean McCoy, Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson — had three 1,000-yard seasons after Year 5. (Only four had three 1,000-yard, 4.0 yards-per-carry seasons.) Eight — Shaun Alexander, William Andrews, Maurice Jones-Drew, Billy Sims, Wilbert Montgomery, Arian Foster, Chuck Foreman and Herschel Walker — had zero or one 1,000-yard seasons after Year 5. (Clinton Portis and Matt Forte are the other two backs, each with two 1,000-yard seasons after Year 5.)
It's easy to slide Bell's production into the Colts' backfield and get excited, but backs can deteriorate quickly. The Colts would be committing a minimum of $50 million for a 40 percent chance that Bell continues to produce at his current level. There's a nearly 50-50 chance, based on historical precedent, that Bell will have zero or one 1,000-yard seasons with his next team.
I'm not saying the Colts shouldn't add Bell via a trade (though surrendering anything more than a fourth-rounder would be a lot for 12 games and a $10 million-plus salary) or free agency, but don't assume three years of Pro Bowl performance.
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