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Now that Manny Machado is set to join the San Diego Padres, the next question is: What kind of an impact will he have in 2019 and beyond?
The Padres already have one of the best, if not the best farm system in baseball, so even though they finished last season with a 66-96 record, the immediate future seems significantly brighter.
A two-time Gold Glove winner at third base, Machado instantly gives the Padres a huge upgrade at a position that had no clear occupant entering the winter. But his greatest contributions will come at the plate. Let's take a closer look:
San Diego's Petco Park has been notoriously pitcher-friendly since it opened in 2004. However, last season it tilted slightly hitter-friendly (+3% above average in scoring, according to ESPN's Park Factors).
Meanwhile, Machado's two home parks last season – Oriole Park at Camden Yards and Dodger Stadium – were both below-average in promoting scoring.
Where Petco Park could impact Machado the most is in the home run department. He tied his career high of 37 home runs last season with the benefit of playing in two home parks that ranked ninth and 11th for homers (+12% and +6%).
Petco Park, meanwhile, depressed home runs by 7%. If conditions remain the same in 2019, a lesser percentage of Machado's offensive contributions in San Diego will come via the home run.
(As a result, his fantasy value takes a slight hit – falling from the No. 11 overall player to No. 19 in USA TODAY Sports' Top 200 rankings.)
Playing in the NL West, the benefits of traveling to Coors Field in Denver will likely be outweighed by road trips to pitcher-friendly parks in San Francisco and (with the new humidor) Phoenix.
Even if he doesn't quite duplicate his 37 homers from a year ago, Machado gives a major boost to a Padres offense that was one of the worst in the majors in 2018, ranking 28th out of 30 teams at 3.81 runs per game.
Having Machado, 26, hit in the heart of the order will definitely help. He posted career-best numbers in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging last season (.297/.367/.538), while driving in over 100 runs for the first time.
Though he played shortstop almost exclusively last season, he'll likely take over as the starting third baseman in San Diego. By comparison, Padres third basemen hit a collective .231/.299/.409 in 2018.
Here's what a potential Padres lineup might look like:
According to Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool, Machado's presence in the Padres' projected lineup would increase production to 4.01 runs/game, moving them ahead of three teams in last year's rankings.
However, hitting Hosmer (and his .332 OBP) in the leadoff spot and moving Kinsler to third projects for 4.26 runs/game -- which would move them up seven spots overall.
Even with Machado, the Padres offense is still below-average. However, the wealth of young talent coming up through the farm system – particularly SS Fernando Tatis Jr. – should provide even more punch in the years to come.
Follow Gardner on Twitter @SteveAGardner
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What can we expect from Manny Machado with the Padres?
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