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A United Nations report published on June 22 predicts a world population of 9.8 billion for the year 2050 compared to the current population of 7.5 billion. The report also predicts that the aging of the population will take place much quicker.
Gilles Pison, a professor at the National Museum of Natural History and research associate at INED (National Institute of Demographic Studies), explains how the predictions were made and reviews the principal conclusions of the UN report.
La Croix: How were the UN predictions on population reached?
Gilles Pison: Population growth is determined from the difference between the birth rate (the average number of children per woman) and the death rate.
The UN first makes predictions on a country by country basis. These predictions are based on the trends observed over the course of preceding years and decades. The UN operates on the hypothesis that these trends will continue.
Various scenarios (low, medium and high probability) are considered. The report made public on June 21 corresponds to the medium scenario.
Based on this study, the population is expected to reach 9.8 billion in 2052 and 11.2 billion in 2100. These results predict a rise in the world population.
However, for some years it has been observed that growth is slowing. The increase in the world population is less and less rapid.
Are these figures surprising? Or, on the contrary, are they in line with earlier UN predictions?
GP: In general, the UN predictions for the level of the world population have not changed much. This level has remained at around 11.2 billion people for the year 2100.
On the other hand, the UN calculations have changed greatly with respect to the share of world population.
Thus, the part predicted for Asia in the global population has greatly diminished. In 1981, when the UN made a global prediction of the world population for the year 2100, it advanced a figure of 5.9 billion people for Asia. Now that figure has been revised downwards to 4.8 billion.
On the other hand, the part predicted for Africa in the future world population has been raised from 2.2 billion to 4.4 billion. These changes are due to two surprising developments.
On the one hand, there is a quicker than expected fall in the birthrate in Asia as well as in Latin America. On the other hand, there has been a slower than expected drop in the birth rate in Africa.
The other significant finding of the report is the aging of the population. What could the consequences be of this phenomenon?
GP: The aging of the population results from two phenomena, the rise in life expectancy (average length of life) and the reduction in the size of families.
This evolution is worldwide. The countries of the Global South are also experiencing it but with a delay.
The consequences will be the same for these nations as those we already experience in Europe, namely a rise in the number of people over 65 in the population and a reduction in the number of young people.
However, the aging of the population will take place much quicker. It represents a greater challenge since countries are still not prepared for the expected changes, like inadequate retirement provisions, etc.
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