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The presidential contest this year is going to be unpredictable, perhaps the most unpredictable in modern times, and Donald Trump is poised to be a formidable Republican opponent.
But the decision by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders on Wednesday to suspend his campaign, and with warm words for Joe Biden, means the Democratic Party has united behind a nominee earlier than in any open contest in nearly two decades.
That doesn't ensure victory, of course, but the opposite situation might have invited defeat. Democrats have now taken Step One: Joe Biden will be the presidential nominee, and he will be backed with apparent enthusiasm by every one of his primary rivals.
Not to mention the most popular Democrats in the country, Barack and Michelle Obama. The former president and first lady have carefully stayed out of the primary contest, but with Sanders' announcement they will will feel free to weigh in. That is likely to be an inestimable asset for Biden, who served for eight years as Obama's vice president, in raising money, generating energy and offering advice.
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In his announcement, Sanders acknowledged the power of Trump as a factor in his decision. He suspended his campaign even before the results had been counted in Tuesday's primary in Wisconsin, a state he won in 2016 but trailed in surveys this time. His words were delivered on a video livestream from his Vermont home, the platform itself reflecting the historic complications of a presidential race at a time of pandemic.
"As I see the crisis gripping the nation, exacerbated by a president unwilling or unable to provide any kind of credible leadership," he said, "I cannot in good conscience continue to mount a campaign that cannot win, and which would interfere with the important work required of all of us."
That "important work" includes not only pursuing progressive policies – Sanders undeniably has left his stamp on the Democratic agenda – but also denying President Trump a second term. That stands in contrast to four years ago, when Sanders pursued his challenge to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the nomination to the bitter end amid a general assumption that Trump couldn't win the White House.
Now one of Trump's greatest political assets is his unified control of the GOP. It may be an irony that he has helped unite not only Republicans but also Democrats.
"Biden has two major tasks ahead of him right now – uniting the party to work on the all-important task of defeating Donald Trump and scaling up his campaign infrastructure to deal with the entirely unique campaign he has to run in the midst of a global pandemic and economic crisis," Guy Cecil, political director for Clinton's 2008 campaign who now heads the largest Democratic super PAC, said in an interview. "Not having to devote any more time or resources to a primary makes both of these tasks significantly easier."
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The relatively early end to the Democratic contest is particularly remarkable given its chaotic beginning. Two dozen credible contenders were vying for the nomination, a record, and Biden was a fragile frontrunner who stumbled in the opening contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. Even so, in an unprecedented political recovery, he rebounded with a victory in South Carolina and managed to consolidate his standing with a near sweep on Super Tuesday early last month. That left Sanders with no realistic path to the nomination.
His willingness to acknowledge that reality, and to step back, is crucial.
Four years ago, Hillary Clinton's team complained that Sanders fought on for too long and then didn't do enough to convince his supporters to back her. This time, Sanders' greatest electoral strength, his standing among young voters, is Biden's biggest electoral weakness. In this year's contests, Sanders carried the support of voters under 30 by double digits, although he failed in his efforts to generate higher turnout among them. Rising progressive leaders, including New York Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, have endorsed Sanders and viewed Biden warily.
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Biden acknowledged Sanders' importance in a conciliatory statement that thanked him for putting "the interest of the nation" and "the need to defeat Donald Trump" first. “Let me say especially to the young voters who have been inspired by Senator Sanders: I hear you,” Biden said. “I know what’s at stake."
Persuading his voters to embrace his former rival will be a test for Sanders. In an ABC News/Washington Post Poll last month, 15% of the senator's supporters said they would vote for Trump if Biden was the Democratic nominee.
Meanwhile, Trump immediately tried to stir up resentment among them. "Bernie Sanders is OUT!" the president tweeted almost instantly. "This ended just like the Democrats & the DNC wanted, same as the Crooked Hillary fiasco. The Bernie people should come to the Republican Party, TRADE!"
That said, Trump won't have the easy attack his campaign saw against a Democratic Socialist, the affiliation Sanders claims.
That prospect had delighted Republican strategists when Sanders led the field after winning in New Hampshire and Nevada. And whatever his weaknesses, Biden also has more strength than Clinton among white working-class voters in the industrial states that delivered narrow victories, and the White House, to Trump last time.
"The more time Joe Biden has to focus on November, the more likely he is to win," veteran Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said in an interview. "The more help Sanders provides bringing his supporters into the Biden tent, the more likely we are to defeat Trump."
Sanders said he would keep his name on the ballots for the primaries that remain in hopes of amassing as many convention delegates as possible, gaining leverage on the Democratic platform and party procedures.
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