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The Syrian Government's extraordinary successes in pushing back ISIS across most of the non-Kurdish regions of Syria has gone largely unnoticed in the West.
You could be forgiven for never having heard of Deir ez-Zor. There is virtually no mention of it in the Western press, except by British journalist Robert Fisk. Yet this ancient Syrian city of just over 200,000 people on the banks of the Euphrates is the site of what looks to be the final defeat of the dream of ISIS of creating an ethnically cleansed, sectarian caliphate in Syria and Iraq.
Ironically, way back in 2012, a US Defence Intelligence Agency document suggested that the emergence of a "declared or undeclared Salafist [fundamentalist Sunni] principality" in the area of Hasaka or Deir ez-Zor would be useful in isolating the Syrian government.
While it is not known what exact status this document enjoyed, some more conspiratorially minded folk noted that that was indeed the area of Syria where ISIS first emerged two years later.
As it happens, the Syrian government held the city itself against a three and a half year ISIS siege, only lifted last month by a combination of Russian and Syrian airpower, Syrian special forces and ongoing counterattacks by the troops besieged within.
Unlike the ongoing efforts of Kurdish forces, backed by US airpower, to liberate the other remaining ISIS center in Raqqa, the Syrian Government's extraordinary successes in pushing back the terror organization across most of the non-Kurdish regions of Syria has gone largely unnoticed in the West.
These successes are important for a number of reasons.
Firstly, they give the lie to the oft-repeated claims of use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government. There are no angels in the Syrian war and Assad runs a government which is as authoritarian as many in the Middle East: It's hard to imagine that he would have ethical qualms about their use.
Nevertheless, chemical weapons are weapons of desperation — while they can be effective under limited conditions, they are universally condemned and would almost inevitably drag other countries into the conflict. Why take such a gamble when you are winning — and winning handsomely?
Secondly, the nature of the forces the government has ranged against ISIS gives the lie to many of the glibly-repeated nostrums of the Syrian war. While it is often said that this is a Shi'a v Sunni conflict, with Iran backing fellow Shi'a Assad against the radical Sunni movements ISIS and Al Qaeda, this is also false.
Assad's family are Alawite, a monotheistic faith whose status within Islam is disputed. While allied with Shi'a Iran and Hezbollah, his army is mostly Sunni. The Syrian general who held Deir ez-Zor against ISIS during the long years of the siege, Issam Zahreddine, is a Druze (a member of a non-Muslim but monotheist faith). The Baath Party which runs Syria is Arab nationalist, rather than confessionally based and is insistent on the secularity of the state.
As a result, while Christians, Shi'a and indeed many Sunnis have no illusions about Syria's level of democracy or the human rights record of its notorious intelligence services, it is hardly surprising that they find the Arab nationalist government more congenial than the self-described "moderate opposition" who fight under the slogan, "Christians to Beirut, Alawites to the grave".
On the other hand, it is precisely this Arab nationalism on the part of the Syrian government (the army is called the Syrian Arab Army) which so alienates many of the Kurdish population.
There are restrictions on the public expression of Kurdish language and culture and many Kurds were stripped of citizenship in a controversial census in 1962. As a result, Kurdish armed formations which have been fighting ISIS are less than keen on the government regaining control of the whole country either.
The influence of foreign powers in fomenting this complicated and toxic brew cannot be ignored. Russia and Iran openly back the Syrian government — but at least have the distinction of being in Syria legally, as they have been invited by the government. Saudi Arabia and Israel, afraid of growing Iranian influence in Syria, have been supporting rebel movements (Al Qaida and ISIS among them), providing, amongst other things, money, supplies and medical treatment.
Aside from the CIA and Pentagon's own support for rebel groups and newly established US bases in Northern Syria, evidence has emerged that the US collaborated with Saudi, the UAE and others in shipping weapons to selected rebels through the Bulgarian diplomatic bag.
The rise of the Kurds has also alarmed Turkey. That increasingly authoritarian state — afraid of its own restive Kurdish population — has lately changed its focus from the now-unrealistic goal of removing Bashar al Assad to the suppression of the Syrian Kurds.
This has put some distance between itself and the US, who see a Kurdish state running through Syria and Northern Iraq as a convenient buffer to disrupt communications between Iran and Syria.
Fortunately, there is now a peace process in place. De-escalation zones have been negotiated between Russians, Syrians, Turks, and Iranians. ISIS and Al Qaida are on the run and negotiations seem in prospect between the Syrian government and the Kurds.
Despite these promising signs, there are still no easy answers. Nevertheless, the lifting of the siege of Deir ez-Zor seems as good a time as any to question what we think we know about the Syrian Civil War.
Fr Justin Glyn SJ is studying canon law in Canada. Previously he practised law in South Africa and New Zealand and has a PhD in administrative and international law.
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