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Gold made a monthly Dark Cloud Cover in June. The odds are with bears now, but a confirmation is required. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.
In June gold made a dramatic reversal and produced a solid Dark Cloud Cover (1 more point down and it would be a Bearish Engulfing). The move shifted the odds to the dark side. However, the odds are not as high as they would be after engulfing and the candle requires a confirmation next month. From that perspective, a rally at the beginning of the month is quite possible.
The monthly indicators so far support further downwards moves.
The weekly candles formed a 7-week Tower Top, a very strong bearish statement. It is well supported by the falling indicators. The previous and current weeks show the signs of the pause before another leg down.
Possible development – horizontal within $1750-1815 channel. There is nothing bullish until we can see a solid green candle closed above $1815.
Today gold formed a Piercing Line combo and shifted the daily odds to the bulls. If the momentum continues, there is a chance for a short-term rally towards $1810-1815 area. Bulls would need to break the resistance of 8 and 20 EMA lines to have the rally become a mid-term one.
The 2hr chart above shows my main operative count. By multiple Fibonacci measurements, I view the $1810-1815 area as an inflection one. If passed through, I will adopt the blue counts. If gold is rejected down, a new lower low would be expected.
Gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The odds are on the dark side. While it can experience a short- and even a 2-3-week-long rally, the expectation is that it ends July at a lower level than in June.
Based on various measurements, the target area for the correction: $1720-1280.
They are discussed in details in the Long Term Forecast (link below).
If gold is going to make a bottom and reverse, we should see the bullish signs at least on the weekly charts.
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Previous Weekly and Long Term Forecast:
#XAUUSD = Gold: Weekly Analysis + Long Term Forecast = 18.06.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals #investing #charts $GDX $GLD #ElliottWave
Posted byDimonJune 30, 2021Posted inCandles Speak, Gold Futures, Long Term Forecast, Monthly AnalysisTags:Gold Futures, XAU/USD
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