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Unfortunately for us, the forecasted landfall location has continued to move south. According to the NHC 5 p.m. update, landfall could be close to Cape Coral, just a little bit north. The storm could strengthen to a category 4 storm. Therefore, we are expecting hurricane force winds and possibly a significant storm surge as the wind pushes the Gulf waters towards the coast. All of this reminds us of Hurricane Charley in 2004, which was the worst storm that we have experienced in Cape Coral so far.
Due to the mandatory evacuation order, many people have left Cape Coral for safer areas. Police cars drove through the streets this morning, advising everybody to leave. To the Seabim guests that left:
We hope that you can come back right after the storm passes. However, as long as power has not been restored or if there is damage to your vacation home, it might not be possible to move back into the home. Please try to contact us before you return. We provided you with our emergency contact information, including emergency phone numbers.
Continue to monitor the news, government adisories, and the ressources we mentioned in our previous posts.
For several hours now, it is raining almost constantly; mostly light rain. The wind picked up at times, nothing more than a breeze. We did not see any tornados. The conditions should deteriorate in the morning. Landfall is currently predicted for tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon. Daylight would be a big help!
In the past, we often lost power, phone, internet and water (a little later) shortly before landfall. --- As long as we can, we will try to update this post with information for our customers and of our experience on the ground.
Tuesday, Sept 27, 2022, morning
As hurricane Ian gets closer to Cape Coral and Lee County, we are now under "hurricane warning". See the latest NHC track update.
In addition, a mandatory evacuation order has been issued for lower lying areas.
To all guests and occupants of the Seabim vacation homes:
Almost ALL of the Seabim vacation homes are now under mandatory evacuation order. Please act accordingly
Here is a quote from the county website:
"The evacuation area includes: All of Evacuation Zone A, which generally includes islands and coastal areas. Part of Evacuation Zone B south of Veterans Parkway.
Please follow Lee County updates and advisory and local news (WINK, nbc-2, Fox4, etc.).
Here is a link to the Lee County Hurricane Ian updates:
that includes the zones of evacuation.
Here is a separate link to the current map (8:20 a.m.):
Monday, Sept 26, 2022, evening.
This Monday, there were no major changes with regards to the forecasted track, including the latest update from 8 p.m. this evening. For possible consequences for our area, see previous updates.
The Seabim team is almost finished with preparing all of our managed vacation homes. All of our guests confirmed that they are well informed and know what to do. Some guests are so nice to help with carrying the outdoor furniture into the home or into the shuttered lanai.
Tomorrow, Tuesday, will be the day for some final actions. During the day, it should get more windy and rainy, especially in the afternoon; there is always a chance of tornados. Wednesday (throughout the day) should be the day that impacts us the most. If the current forecast becomes reality, the Tampa area will most likely have to bear the heaviest impact. Unfortunately, this might be during the night from Wednesday to Thursday. We really wish that the storm weakens before landfall.
If the storm takes a turn to the east, landfall could still be in the Cape Coral area. If this happens, power outages will be likely (they can also happen, if landfall is further north). In this case, and if the internet is down, it will be difficult to update this blog. However, we will try to get online and inform you as soon as possible. We have prepared a generator emergency set up to get power back quickly. In addition, if internet services are down but phone services work, we will try to get the updates input in another location outside of our area with internet access. Therefore, please continue to follow our updated blog posts for the Cape Coral area.
As soon as the storm has passed, we will assess possible damages for all of the Seabim homes.
Monday, Sept 26, 2022, noon.
Since our last update, the forecasted track of the storm moved closer to our coast and a possible landfall is in the Tampa/Clearwater area now. An additional negative is the decreasing forward speed of the storm off our coast. This means that the storm would linger longer, which could also impact the amount of flooding we get. As these storms circulate counter-clockwise, winds south (right) of the storm's center push Gulf water towards land. Please follow the track and news.
If the storm runs exactly as predicted in the latest 11 a.m. NHC update, we still feel that we will not be affected too much; with the exception of a lot of rain (watch for road flooding) and some wind of course (there could also be some tornado risk).
There is a risk, though, that the track will move further east and/or the landfall is closer to the Cape Coral area. We will know better when the storm moves closer but unfortunately, at that time, there is not enough reaction time left to cancel arrivals and after arrival there might not be enough time and/or supplies available for our guests to prepare for the situation.
Therefore, we offer all of our guests that are scheduled to arrive between now and Thursday the option to cancel their trip or come a few days later. We will provide a FULL REFUND for the canceled days.
We still hope that guests who are scheduled to arrive after IAN has passed, will not be affected. As long as communication is working, we will continue to update our Seabim Blog.
Sunday, Sept 25, 2022, evening.
According to today's 5 p.m. forecast (National Hurricane Center, see link below), the possible landfall of hurricane IAN moved even further north. If actual landfall will be close to the current forecast, we do not expect our area to be affected any more than by our regular summer rains or thunder storms while the storm is passing by over the Gulf of Mexico.
One of our guests asked us today, whether we expect our normal lives to go on as usual, whether restaurants will be open, pools can be used, etc. Based on the current forecast, the answer is "yes, we do". Of course, we all need to continue to watch for possible changes in future forecast updates.
Saturday, Sept 24, 2022, morning.
The storm has been named IAN. In the latest update from 8 a.m. this Saturday morning, we are not in the center of the forecasted track anymore. The center moved a little further north towards the Sarasota/Tampa area. Most likely, these forecasts will continue to change over the next days.
Obviously, a landfall north of Cape Coral would reduce the impact for our area; but the angle of the landfall is also very important. If Ian runs alongside the coast or comes close to our coast before making landfall, the impact could be as bad as a direct hit, probably with a higher risk of flooding.
September 23, 2022, original post:
Tropical Depression Nine is forecasted to become a major hurricane. At the moment, the National Hurricane Center places the center of the expected track right in the Cape Coral area. Expected landfall is Tuesday or Wednesday. In the past, these forecasted tracks moved over time until the storms finally made landfall. As we do not know, whether or how this will develop, we have to prepare for a landfall in our area. However, it is still possible that the storm changes direction and in the end we might not be impacted at all or only slightly.
Seabim guests and owners, who are scheduled to be here when this storm possibly hits, please follow the news and make sure to prepare yourself. Among other things, fill up the tanks of your vehicles as soon as possible. Prepare for power outages (no refrigeration, no communication, no credit card payments), including enough cash, non-perishable food and water. Have your flashlights available and ready for use (including batteries). Make sure your power banks are full.
If the next forecasts keep the storm on track to our area, consider evacuation. The closer we get to landfall, the more difficult it will be to leave. The roads will be full, fuel and accommodations will be difficult to find.
In the past, we often got wind and rain 24 - 48 hours before landfall. This can make all outside work difficult or even impossible.
The National Hurricane Center offers valuable tools. Here is a link to their forecasted track that is usually updated on a regular basis:
This morning, the Seabim team started to prepare the properties of the Seabim Vacation Portfolio. Especially lighter outside items are secured inside the buildings and outside furniture is either moved inside or under the lanai. Heavy dock furniture will not be moved during this first stage of preparation.
Most of the Seabim team has at least 20 years of experience with hurricanes. Until now, none of our guests or owners were ever hurt, and damages to the Seabim properties have been very limited.