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Aung's Investment: Easiest way to pick a company to invest
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Easiest way to pick a company to invest
Stock Marketထဲ ဝင္ခ်င္တဲ့သူတိုင္း ပထမဆံုး ဒုကၡေရာက္တာကေတာ့ ဘယ္ကုမၸဏီကို ဝယ္သင့္သလည္းပါ။ ကုမၸဏီတစ္ခုကို Investလုပ္သင့္လား မလုပ္သင့္ဘူးလား Analyseလုပ္တဲ့နည္းေတြ ရာနဲ့ခ်ီၿပီး ရွိပါတယ္။ Stock Marketမွာ Investလုပ္ရင္ ျပႆနာက Informationမရွိတာမဟုတ္၊ too much informationျဖစ္ေနတာကမွ ျပႆနာအစစ္။
Earnings-per-share(EPS)
Current Stock Priceကေတာ့ ရွင္းျပစရာမလို၊ သိသင့္ပါတယ္။ EPSကေတာ့ သိခ်င္မွသိမယ္။ EPSတြက္ရတာ လြယ္ပါတယ္။ ကုမၸဏီရဲ့ Earningsကို No. of issued Sharesနဲ့ စား႐ံုပါပဲ။
EPS = -----------------------------
No. of issued shares
finance.yahoo.comလို websiteေတြမွာ EPSတို့ P/Eတို့ဟာ တြက္ၿပီးသား အဆင္သင့္ရွိပါတယ္။ ဒါေပမယ့္ ဘယ္လိုတြက္သလည္း သိရင္ေတာ့ ပိုေကာင္းပါတယ္။ P/Eကို Multipleလို့လည္း ေခၚၾကပါတယ္။ Definitionတိုတုိေျပာရရင္ေတာ့ ကုမၸဏီရဲ့ EPS 1$သို့ ၁က်ပ္ရဖို့ ဘယ္ေလာက္ အလိုက္ေပးရမလည္းေပါ့။
P/Eကို Translateလုပ္တတ္ဖို့ အေရးႀကီးပါတယ္။ ေယဘုယ်အားျဖင့္ P/E ၂၀ေအာက္ဟာ Cheapျဖစ္တယ္လို့ ေျပာႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ P/E ၂၀ နဲ့ ၃၀ၾကားဟာ ေအာင္ျမင္တဲ့ ကုမၸဏီတစ္ခုအတြက္ မထူးဆန္းပါဘူး။ ၃၀အထက္ကေတာ့ အရမ္းPopular ျဖစ္တဲ့ကုမၸဏီေတြမွာ ရွိတတ္ပါတယ္။ P/E ၁၀ေအာက္ကေတာ့ Bargainလို့ ေျပာႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ EPS ၁က်ပ္ရဖို့ ကိုယ္က ၁၀က်ပ္ပဲ အလိုက္ေပးရတာကိုး။ ဒီအေပၚယံ translationအားလံုးဟာ well-managedကုမၸဏီေတြ၊ သတင္းဆိုးမထြက္တဲ့ ကုမၸဏီေတြအတြက္ပဲ မွန္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။
ကုမၸဏီက Earningသိပ္မရွိရင္ EPSနည္းသြားပါမယ္။ P/Eတြက္ဖို့က EPSကပိုင္းေျခဆိုေတာ့ ပိုင္းေျခနည္းရင္ စားလဒ္ဟာမ်ားသြားတာ မဆန္းပါဘူး။ ဒါေၾကာင့္ P/Eမ်ားၿပီး ကုမၸဏီOutlookကမေကာင္းရင္ ေစ်းၾကီးတယ္လို့ ဆိုႏိုင္တယ္။ ကုမၸဏီက Earningတိုးတက္ဖို့ Potentialရွိတယ္ဆိုရင္ေတာ့ Investorေတြရဲ့ တန္ဖိုးထားခံရတယ္လို့ ေျပာႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ P/Eတန္ဖုိးခ်င္းအတူတူ ကုမၸဏီရဲ့ Image၊ Forecastနဲ့ သတင္းေတြေပၚမူတည္ၿပီး Translationကြာသြားပါမယ္။ ကုမၸဏီေကာင္းရင္ Growth ေကာင္းမွာမို့လို့လို့ ေျပာႏိုင္သလို၊ ကုမၸဏီမေကာင္းရင္ Expensive/Overvalueျဖစ္တယ္လို့ ေျပာႏိုင္ပါတယ္။
P/Eနည္းေနရင္လည္း အဓိပၸါယ္ႏွစ္မ်ိဳးထြက္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ ကုမၸဏီကသိပ္မဟန္ရင္ Investorေတြသိပ္တန္ဖိုးမထားတာလို့ ေကာက္ခ်က္ခ်ႏိုင္သလို၊ ကုမၸဏီက okရင္ Cheap/Undervalueလို့ ေျပာႏိုင္ပါတယ္။
တခါတရံ P/E = N/Aဆိုၿပီးေတြ့ပါလိမ့္မယ္။ ဒါဟာ Negative earningsလုိ့ ဆိုလိုပါတယ္။ ဒီလိုကုမၸဏီမ်ိဳးကို Generallyကေတာ့ ေဝးေဝးေရွာင္သင့္ပါတယ္။ Earning မရွိတဲ့ေနရာမွာ ကိုယ့္ပိုက္ဆံ ဘာလို့သြားထားရမလည္းလို့ ေတြးႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ ဒါေပမယ့္ တက္သစ္စကုမၸဏီျဖစ္ၿပီး၊ အလားအလာအရမ္းေကာင္းတဲ့ ကုမၸဏီေတြမွာလည္း P/E = N/A ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ ဘာလို့လည္းဆိုေတာ့ သူတို့မွာ Marketကို Reportလုပ္ဖို့ ဘာမွမရွိေသးလို့ပါ။ ဒါမ်ိဳးကို Speculative Investmentလို့ေခၚႏိုင္ပါတယ္။
ျဖစ္လာႏုိင္မယ့္ P/Eကို မွန္းၿပီး Investလုပ္မယ္ဆိုရင္ အဲဒါမ်ိဳးကို Forward P/Eလို့ ေခၚပါတယ္။ EPSေတြကို Updateလုပ္တာဟာ every 3, 6, 12 months ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ ဒီေတာ့ ေနာက္ဆံုးေၾကညာထားတဲ့ EPSကို အသံုးခ်ၿပီး တြက္တာကို Historical P/Eလို့ ဆိုႏိုင္ပါတယ္။
ကြ်န္ေတာ့္Favouriteကေတာ့ Weighted P/Eပါ။ ဒါကိုရဖို့ ကုမၸဏီရဲ့ Forcecast/Forward EPSနဲ့ Historic EPSကို သိရပါမယ္။ ကုမၸဏီရဲ့ corporate calendarကိုလည္း သိဖို့လိုပါတယ္။ လက္ရွိလကိုၾကည့္ၿပီး Forward EPSနဲ့ Historic EPSကို Weight ထည့္ၿပီး Average EPSကို တြက္ႏုိင္ပါတယ္။ ကုမၸဏီက Decemberဘာမွာ Fiscal Year ကုန္ၿပီး၊ လက္ရွိက ေအာက္တိုဘာလဆုိရင္ Forward EPSကို ပိုWeight ပိုေပးပါမယ္။
Avg EPS = Forward EPS x (10/12) + Historic EPS x ((12-10)/12)
အထက္က Formulaမွာ 10ဟာ Corporate Calendarရဲ့ ၁၀လေျမာက္လို့ ဆိုလိုပါတယ္။ ႏွစ္ကုန္ခါနီးေလ၊ Forward EPSကို ဦးစားေပးေလလို့ ေျပာႏိုင္ပါတယ္။
P/Eဟာ အထက္မွာေျပာခဲ့သလို Simpleအျဖစ္ဆံုးနဲ့ ေတာ္ေတာ္အသံုးဝင္တဲ့ Indicator တစ္ခုပါ။ ဒါေပမယ့္ Translationလုပ္တဲ့ေနရာမွာ ဘယ္Perspectiveကေန လုပ္မွာလည္းက အေရးႀကီးပါတယ္။ အဓိကကေတာ့ Investingမွာ ဘာမွ ေလွနံဓါးထစ္ မွတ္ထားလို့ မရပါဘူး။ Yahoo Finance, Google Financeမွာ ကိုယ္သိတဲ့ Public Companyေတြရဲ့ P/Eကို ေလ့လာၾကည့္ၾကပါလို့ တိုက္တြန္းပါတယ္။
Happy Investing!
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Posted by Aung Myo Htet at 10/08/2009 02:55:00 PM
Labels: fundamentals, methods, p/e, stock
4 comments:
Life is for SuccessOctober 08, 2009 3:19 PM
khay zu bar ko ko
ReplyDelete
King of BloggerOctober 08, 2009 3:32 PM
ေကာင္းတဲ့ company website သိ၇င္ share ေပးပါ... stock ၀ယ္ခ်င္တာ ႀကာျပီ.ဘယ္လုိ ၀ယ္၇ ေ၇ာင္း၇ မွန္းမသိလို့.ဘာကို ၀ယ္၇မွန္းလည္း မသိ...ေက်းဇူးပါ...
ReplyDelete
Nay LinnOctober 08, 2009 5:02 PM
thanks . really interesting. It have been long time i want to learn stock trade. but didnt get chance coz of various limitation. Now, i can get it gradually. thanks again Aunginvestment.
ReplyDelete
nyimuyarOctober 09, 2009 3:09 AM
Thanks so much, I've plan to learn how to Invest and don't know how to start, at the time I read your blog, Thanks again for your sharing knowledge.
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