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ဟုတ္ပါ့မလားဟလို့ ေတြးေနလားေတာ့ မသိဘူး။ Tradingလုပ္တဲ့အခါမွာ အရွုံးဆိုတာရွိပါတယ္။ ဒါေပမယ့္ Net အရွုံးဆိုတာ မရွိေအာင္ ဘယ္လို Money Managementလုပ္ရမလည္းဆိုတာကို စိတ္ဝင္စားေအာင္ Titleေပးထားတာပါ။ ဒီPostထဲက တခ်ဳိ့Conceptေတြဟာ Robert Kiyosakiနဲ့ Dr. Alexander Elderရဲ့ Intellectual Propertyေတြျဖစ္ပါတယ္။
Trading vs. Investing
ပထမဆံုးေျပာခ်င္တာကေတာ့ အမ်ားစုဟာ Tradingနဲ့ Investingကို ေရာေနတာပါပဲ။ Tradingဟာ Short-term focusedျဖစ္ၿပီး Investingကေတာ့ Long-termအတြက္ပါ။ Stock Investingဟာ တကယ္တမ္းေတာ့ Day jobလည္းရွိ၊ ေငြပိုေငြလွ်ံနည္းနည္းရွိတဲ့သူေတြ Financial Advisor, Brokerအစရွိတဲ့သူေတြရဲ့ Tipsေတြနဲ့ ဝယ္ၿပီးပစ္ထားတတ္တဲ့ အရာလို့ Generally Definitionဖြင့္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ ဟုတ္မဟုတ္ ကိုယ့္ဘာသာကိုယ္နဲ့ ကိုယ့္ဝန္းက်င္ကသူေတြကိုသာ ၾကည့္ၾကည့္ပါ။ အမ်ားစုဟာ Stock Marketထဲမွာ Directly(သို့) Indirectly (Mutual Funds in America, Superannuation Funds in Australia) Investလုပ္ထားၾကပါတယ္။ အခုကြ်န္ေတာ္ေျပာေနတဲ့ Investingဆိုတာ Direct Investingကို ေျပာေနတာပါ။ ကိုယ္ဝယ္ခဲ့တဲ့Stockက solid bluechip stockဆိုရင္ေတာ့ ေတာ္ရုံအရွုံးေပၚေနရင္ေတာင္ အခ်ိန္တန္ရင္ (အခ်ိန္ဟာ ၃လကေန ၃ႏွစ္ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္) ကိုယ့္ပိုက္ဆံေတာ့ ျပန္ရတတ္ပါတယ္။ ၾကားထဲမွာရတဲ့ Dividendsကပဲ အျမတ္ေပါ့။ တခ်ိဳ့ကေျပာၾကတယ္ Time in the Market is More Important than Timing in the Marketဆိုၿပီးေတာ့ပါ။ အခ်ိန္တန္ရင္ေတာ့ ႏြားပိန္ကန္မယ္ေပါ့။ "အရွုံးဆိုတာမရွိ" တမ်ိဳးေပါ့ေလ :)။ ဒီလိုနည္းနဲ့ Investလုပ္မယ္ဆိုရင္ေတာ့ တစ္ခုပဲေျပာခ်င္ပါတယ္ - "You are going to need a lot of LUCK"။
Trading is a totally different ball game
အမ်ားစု Stock Tradingဝင္လုပ္ၿပီး Marketထဲကေန Washed Outျဖစ္ျဖစ္သြားရတဲ့ အဓိကတရားခံကေတာ့ အဲဒီ့Long-term investing mindsetကို Trading arenaထဲကို ဆြဲေခၚလာလို့ပါပဲ။ Tradingလုပ္ဖို့ Totally different mindsetလိုပါတယ္။ ကြ်န္ေတာ္ဒီBlogေရးစက ေျပာဖူးတဲ့ 3M (mindset, method, management)ဟာ အရမ္းအေရးႀကီးပါတယ္။ Technical Analysis(TA)နဲ့ Fundamental Analysis(FA)ကို ေလ့လာႏိုင္သေလာက္ တတ္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ ဒါေပမယ့္ TAနဲ့FAသိတဲ့လူတိုင္းဘာလို့ ပိုက္ဆံမရွာႏိုင္ရသလည္း? အဓိကကေတာ့ mindsetနဲ့ managementပိုင္းမွာ တေယာက္နဲ့တေယာက္ ကြာသြားလို့ပါပဲ။
Mythbusting
Tradingနဲ့ပတ္သက္ၿပီး Mythေတြေတာ္ေတာ္မ်ားမ်ားရွိပါတယ္။ ဦးေႏွာက္အရမ္းေကာင္းရမယ္၊ ပိုက္ဆံအမ်ားႀကီးအရင္ရွိရမယ္၊ ေစ်းႀကီးတဲ့ Stock Market Analysis Reportေတြ ဝယ္ရမယ္ စတာေတြေပါ့။ ဒါေတြအားလံုးဟာ Mythေတြႀကီးပါပဲ။ Tradingလုပ္ရင္ ေသခ်ာမွာေတြ ကြ်န္ေတာ္ေျပာျပမယ္။
- ေသခ်ာေလ့လာ Analysisလုပ္ၿပီး Entryေကာင္းေကာင္းေလးဝင္ထားဦး၊ ရွုံးႏိုင္ေသးတယ္။
- မေသမခ်ာနဲ့ သူမ်ားေျပာတိုင္းလိုက္ဝယ္၊ ရွုံးဖို့ေတာ္ေတာ္ေလးေသခ်ာတယ္။
- ေလာင္းကစားသလို မ်က္စိမွိတ္ၿပီး ေကာက္သာဝယ္ ေသခ်ာေပါက္ရွုံးမယ္။
ဒီအခ်က္သံုးခ်က္ကေန ဘာကိုေကာက္ခ်က္ခ်ႏိုင္သလည္းဆိုေတာ့ Tradingလုပ္ရင္ ရွုံးဖို့Chanceက ပိုမ်ားပါလားလို့ ေကာက္ခ်က္ခ်ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ ဒါဆိုရင္ သန္းေထာင္နဲ့ခ်ီၿပီး တစ္ေန့တစ္ေန့ Marketထဲမွာ Tradeေနၾကတာ ဘာလိုမ်ား ပိုက္ဆံရွာေနၾကသလည္းဆိုၿပီး ေမးႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ အေျဖကေတာ့ Professionalsေတြ၊ Institutionsေတြဟာ "ရွုံးတာထက္ ျမတ္တာက ပိုမ်ားလို့ပါ"။ ျမန္မာလိုေျပာေတာ့ အဓိပၸါယ္က နည္းနည္းလံုးသြားတယ္။ တိတိက်က်ေျပာရရင္ ရွုံးတဲ့အၾကိမ္က ျမတ္တဲ့အၾကိမ္ထက္ ပိုမ်ားခ်င္မ်ားမယ္၊ ဒါေပမယ့္ ရွုံးရင္ေငြနည္းနည္းပဲရွုံးၿပီး ျမတ္ရင္ ေငြမ်ားမ်ားပိုျမတ္တဲ့အခါမွာ Net balanceဟာ Positiveျပႏိုင္ပါတယ္။
Lose Less, Make More
အခုေလာက္ဆိုရင္ Tradingရဲ့ Core Principleကို သိၿပီထင္ပါတယ္။ အဓိကကေတာ့ Lossေတြကို ေသခ်ာManageလုပ္ဖို့ပါပဲ။ Lossကိုႏိုင္နင္းရင္ Profitပိုင္းက Automatic handleလုပ္သြားပါလိမ့္မယ္။ Stop-loss, Stop-lossဆိုၿပီး ကြ်န္ေတာ္ေရးေရးေနတာ ေတြ့ဖူးမွာျဖစ္သလို၊ သူမ်ားေတြေျပာတာ၊ Trading Bookေတြထဲမွာ ေျပာေျပာေနတာ ေတြ့ဖူးမွာပါပဲ။ အေျပာလြယ္သေလာက္ အလုပ္ခက္ဆိုတဲ့အရာထဲမွာ အဲဒီ့Disciplineဟာ ထိပ္ဆံုးမွာပါပါတယ္။ အားလံုးနားလည္ေအာင္ေျပာရရင္ ဘာနဲ့တူသလည္းဆိုေတာ့ Weightခ်တာနဲ့ အတူတူပဲ။ နည္းနည္းေလ့လာလိုက္ရင္ လူတိုင္းဘယ္လိုWeightခ်ရမလည္း သိတယ္မဟုတ္လား။ ဒါေပမယ့္ တကယ္လည္းလုပ္ေရာ သိတဲ့အတုိင္းပဲ :) Part IIမွာ Stop-loss, Profit-taking, Money Managementအေသးစိတ္ကို ဆက္ေရးသြားပါ့မယ္။
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Posted by Aung Myo Htet at 11/19/2010 12:11:00 PM 1 comments
Labels: Management, Mindset, Psychology, stop-loss
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