Probability Comparisons
Probability Comparisons
[Large heading, centered.]
Probability Comparisons
[Left column.]
0.01% You guess the last four digits of someone's social security number on the first try
0.1% Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed
0.2% You draw 2 random Scrabble tiles and get M and M
You draw 3 random M&Ms and they're all red
0.3% You guess someone's birthday in one try.
0.5% An NBA team down by 30 at halftime wins
You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow
1% Steph Curry gets two free throws and misses both
LeBron James guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses
1.5% You get two M&Ms and they're both red
You share a birthday with a Backstreet Boy
2% You guess someone's card on the first try
3% You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right
Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game
4% You sweep a 3-game rock paper scissors series
Portland, Oregon has a white Christmas
You share a birthday with two US Senators
5% An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins
You roll a natural 20
6% You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries
7% LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both
8% You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries
9% Steph Curry misses a free throw
10% You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades
There's a magnitude 8+ earthquake in the next month
11% You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series
12% A randomly-chosen American lives in California
You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries
You share a birthday with a US President
13% A d6 beats a d20
An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red
14% A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a d6 die roll
15% You roll a d20 and get at least 18
16% Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one
17% You roll a d6 die and get a 6
18% A d6 beats or ties a d20
19% At least one person in a random pair is left-handed
20% You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown
21% St. Louis has a white Christmas
22% An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime
23% You get an M&M and it's blue
You share a birthday with a US senator
24% You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter
25% You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall
You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.
26% You correctly guess someone was born in the summer
27% LeBron James misses a free throw
32% Pittsburgh has a white Christmas
33% A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title
You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch
You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly
34% You draw five cards and get an ace
35% A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"
[Right column.]
39% LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one
40% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"
46% There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years
48% Milwaukee has a white Christmas
A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen
50% You get heads in a coin toss
53% Salt Lake City has a white Christmas
54% LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both
58% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"
60% You get two M&Ms and neither is blue
65% Burlington, Vermont has a white Christmas
66% A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice
67% You roll at least a 3 with a d6
71% A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll
73% LeBron James makes a free throw
75% You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles
76% You get two M&Ms and neither is red
77% You get an an M&M and it's not blue
78% An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime
79% St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas
81% Two random people are both right-handed
83% Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both
85% You roll a d20 and get at least a 4
87% An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4 th quarter wins
Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries
88% A randomly chosen American lives outside California
89% You roll a 3 or higher given two tries
90% Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries
91% You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August
Steph Curry makes a free throw
92% You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong
93% Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries
94% Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries
95% An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime
96% Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries
97% You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail
98% You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week
98.5% An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins
99% Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries
99.5% An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins
99.7% You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong
99.8% There's not a magnitude 8 quake in California next year
99.9% A random group of three people contains a right-hander
99.99% You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number
99.9999999999999995% You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a magnitude 8 earthquake in California!" and are wrong
0.00000001% You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up
[In light grey colour and in the lower left corner there is text.]
Sources: https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/

This is a list of probabilities for different events. There are numerous recurring themes, of which the most common are free throws (13 entries), birthdays (12), dice (12, split about evenly between 6-sided (d6) and 20-sided (d20) types), M&M candies (11), playing cards (9), NBA basketball mid-game victory predictions (9), Scrabble tiles (7), coins (7), white Christmases (7), and the NBA players Stephen Curry and LeBron James (7 each).
Themes are variously repeated and combined, for humorous effect. For instance, there are entries for both the probability that St. Louis will have a white Christmas (21%) and that it will not (79%). Also given is the 40% probability that a random Scrabble tile will contain a letter from the name "Steph Curry".
There are 80 items in the list, the last two of which devolve into absurdity - perhaps from the stress of preparing the other 78 entries.
The list may be an attempt to better understand probabilistic election forecasts for the 2020 United States presidential election , which was four days away at the time this comic was published and had also been alluded to in 2370: Prediction and 2371: Election Screen Time . Statistician and psephologist Nate Silver is referenced in one of the list items. On the date this cartoon was published, Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight.com was publishing forecast probabilities of Donald Trump and Joe Biden winning the US Presidential election. On 31 October 2020, the forecast described the chances of Donald Trump winning as "roughly the same as the chance that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. It does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)" A day previously, when the chances were 12%, the website had also described Trump's chances of winning as "slightly less than a six sided die rolling a 1".
The probabilities are calculated from these sources , as mentioned in the bottom left corner.
The title text refers to the song " Call Me Maybe " by Carly Rae Jepsen (cited twice in the list). "MAYBE" is emphasized, perhaps because the probability of getting her phone number correct, as in the last item in the list, is very low. The capitalization could also be a reference to Scrabble tiles, as was previously mentioned in association with Carly Rae Jepsen.
In the original comic, "outside" in the 88% probability section is spelled incorrectly as "outide". In addition, the 39% section had "two free throw" instead of "throws".
The (seemingly unimportant) odds of LeBron James' versus Stephen Curry's free throws and names in Scrabble refer to 2002: LeBron James and Stephen Curry .
[Large heading, centered.]
Probability Comparisons
[Left column.]
0.01% You guess the last four digits of someone's social security number on the first try
0.1% Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed
0.2% You draw 2 random Scrabble tiles and get M and M
You draw 3 random M&Ms and they're all red
0.3% You guess someone's birthday in one try.
0.5% An NBA team down by 30 at halftime wins
You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow
1% Steph Curry gets two free throws and misses both
LeBron James guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses
1.5% You get two M&Ms and they're both red
You share a birthday with a Backstreet Boy
2% You guess someone's card on the first try
3% You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right
Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game
4% You sweep a 3-game rock paper scissors series
Portland, Oregon has a white Christmas
You share a birthday with two US Senators
5% An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins
You roll a natural 20
6% You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries
7% LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both
8% You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries
9% Steph Curry misses a free throw
10% You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades
There's a magnitude 8+ earthquake in the next month
11% You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series
12% A randomly-chosen American lives in California
You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries
You share a birthday with a US President
13% A d6 beats a d20
An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red
14% A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a d6 die roll
15% You roll a d20 and get at least 18
16% Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one
17% You roll a d6 die and get a 6
18% A d6 beats or ties a d20
19% At least one person in a random pair is left-handed
20% You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown
21% St. Louis has a white Christmas
22% An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime
23% You get an M&M and it's blue
You share a birthday with a US senator
24% You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter
25% You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall
You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.
26% You correctly guess someone was born in the summer
27% LeBron James misses a free throw
32% Pittsburgh has a white Christmas
33% A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title
You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch
You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly
34% You draw five cards and get an ace
35% A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"
[Right column.]
39% LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one
40% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"
46% There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years
48% Milwaukee has a white Christmas
A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen
50% You get heads in a coin toss
53% Salt Lake City has a white Christmas
54% LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both
58% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"
60% You get two M&Ms and neither is blue
65% Burlington, Vermont has a white Christmas
66% A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice
67% You roll at least a 3 with a d6
71% A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll
73% LeBron James makes a free throw
75% You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles
76% You get two M&Ms and neither is red
77% You get an an M&M and it's not blue
78% An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime
79% St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas
81% Two random people are both right-handed
83% Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both
85% You roll a d20 and get at least a 4
87% An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4 th quarter wins
Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries
88% A randomly chosen American lives outside California
89% You roll a 3 or higher given two tries
90% Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries
91% You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August
Steph Curry makes a free throw
92% You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong
93% Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries
94% Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries
95% An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime
96% Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries
97% You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail
98% You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week
98.5% An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins
99% Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries
99.5% An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins
99.7% You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong
99.8% There's not a magnitude 8 quake in California next year
99.9% A random group of three people contains a right-hander
99.99% You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number
99.9999999999999995% You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a magnitude 8 earthquake in California!" and are wrong
0.00000001% You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up
[In light grey colour and in the lower left corner there is text.]
Sources: https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/
