In addition to these variables, expression levels and copy number variations of a number of relevant genes may be used to support assessment of malignant melanoma prognosis.Stage IV melanoma, in which it has metastasized, is the most deadly skin malignancy: five-year survival is 22.5%. When there is distant metastasis, the cancer is generally considered incurable. The five-year survival rate is less than 10%. The median survival is 6–12 months. Treatment is palliative, focusing on life extension and quality of life. In some cases, patients may live many months or even years with metastatic melanoma (depending on the aggressiveness of the treatment). Metastases to skin and lungs have a better prognosis. Metastases to brain, bone and liver are associated with a worse prognosis. Survival is better with metastasis in which the location of the primary tumor is unknown.There is not enough definitive evidence to adequately stage, and thus give a prognosis for, ocular melanoma and melanoma of soft parts, or mucosal melanoma (e.g., rectal melanoma), although these tend to metastasize more easily. Even though regression may increase survival, when a melanoma has regressed, it is impossible to know its original size and thus the original tumor is often worse than a pathology report might indicate. About 200 genes are prognostic in melanoma, with both unfavorable genes where high expression is correlated to poor survival and favorable genes where high expression is associated with longer survival times.
Alternatively, some practitioners prefer "elevation". Elevation can help identify a melanoma, but lack of elevation does not mean that the lesion is not a melanoma. Most melanomas in the US are detected before they become elevated. By the time elevation is visible, they may have progressed to the more dangerous invasive stage.In-person inspection of suspicious skin lesions is more accurate than visual inspection of images of suspicious skin lesions. When used by trained specialists, dermoscopy is more helpful to identify malignant lesions than use of the naked eye alone. Reflectance confocal microscopy may have better sensitivity and specificity than dermoscopy in diagnosing cutaneous melanoma but more studies are needed to confirm this result. Ugly duckling
One method is the "ugly duckling sign". Correlation of common lesion characteristics is made. Lesions that deviate from the common characteristics are labeled an "ugly duckling", and a further professional exam is required. The "Little Red Riding Hood" sign suggests that individuals with fair skin and light-colored hair might have difficult-to-diagnose amelanotic melanomas. Extra care is required when examining such individuals, as they might have multiple melanomas and severely dysplastic nevi. A dermatoscope must be used to detect "ugly ducklings", as many melanomas in these individuals resemble nonmelanomas or are considered to be "wolves in sheeps clothing". These fair-skinned individuals often have lightly pigmented or amelanotic melanomas that do not present easy-to-observe color changes and variations. Their borders are often indistinct, complicating visual identification without a dermatoscope.