The score is determined by adding the size of the burn (% TBSA) to the age of the person and taking that to be more or less equal to the risk of death. Burns in 2013 resulted in 1.2 million years lived with disability and 12.3 million disability adjusted life years. Complications
A number of complications may occur, with infections being the most common. In order of frequency, potential complications include: pneumonia, cellulitis, urinary tract infections and respiratory failure. Risk factors for infection include: burns of more than 30% TBSA, full-thickness burns, extremes of age (young or old), or burns involving the legs or perineum. Pneumonia occurs particularly commonly in those with inhalation injuries.Anemia secondary to full thickness burns of greater than 10% TBSA is common. Electrical burns may lead to compartment syndrome or rhabdomyolysis due to muscle breakdown. Blood clotting in the veins of the legs is estimated to occur in 6 to 25% of people. The hypermetabolic state that may persist for years after a major burn can result in a decrease in bone density and a loss of muscle mass. Keloids may form subsequent to a burn, particularly in those who are young and dark skinned. Following a burn, children may have significant psychological trauma and experience post-traumatic stress disorder. Scarring may also result in a disturbance in body image. In the developing world, significant burns may result in social isolation, extreme poverty and child abandonment. Epidemiology
In 2015 fire and heat resulted in 67 million injuries.
Although many processes are well understood at a point or for a small area, others are poorly understood at all scales, and process interactions under normal or extreme climatic conditions may be unknown. Basin models typically combine land-surface process components (to estimate how much rainfall or snowmelt reaches a channel) with a series of reach models. For example, a basin model can calculate the runoff hydrograph that might result from a 100-year storm, although the recurrence interval of a storm is rarely equal to that of the associated flood. Basin models are commonly used in flood forecasting and warning, as well as in analysis of the effects of land use change and climate change. Flood forecasting
Anticipating floods before they occur allows for precautions to be taken and people to be warned so that they can be prepared in advance for flooding conditions. For example, farmers can remove animals from low-lying areas and utility services can put in place emergency provisions to re-route services if needed. Emergency services can also make provisions to have enough resources available ahead of time to respond to emergencies as they occur. People can evacuate areas to be flooded. In order to make the most accurate flood forecasts for waterways, it is best to have a long time-series of historical data that relates stream flows to measured past rainfall events.