The former reads: "the probability of finding cancer in a person known to smoke, having started, unforced by the experimenter, to do so at an unspecified time in the past", while the latter reads: "the probability of finding cancer in a person forced by the experimenter to smoke at a specified time in the past". The former is a statistical notion that can be estimated by observation with negligible intervention by the experimenter, while the latter is a causal notion which is estimated in an experiment with an important controlled randomized intervention. It is specifically characteristic of quantal phenomena that observations defined by incompatible variables always involve important intervention by the experimenter, as described quantitatively by the observer effect. In classical thermodynamics, processes are initiated by interventions called thermodynamic operations. In other branches of science, for example astronomy, the experimenter can often observe with negligible intervention. The theory of "causal calculus" (also known as do-calculus, Judea Pearls Causal Calculus, Calculus of
Actions) permits one to infer interventional probabilities from conditional probabilities in causal Bayesian networks with unmeasured variables. One very practical result of this theory is the characterization of confounding variables, namely, a sufficient set of variables that, if adjusted for, would yield the correct causal effect between variables of interest.
Both transposition of the SMA and lysis of the duodenal suspensory muscle have the advantage that they do not involve the creation of an intestinal anastomosis.The possible persistence of symptoms after surgical bypass can be traced to the remaining prominence of reversed peristalsis in contrast to direct peristalsis, although the precipitating factor (the duodenal compression) has been bypassed or relieved. Reversed peristalsis has been shown to respond to duodenal circular drainage—a complex and invasive open surgical procedure originally implemented and performed in China.In some cases, SMA syndrome may occur alongside a serious, life-threatening condition such as cancer or AIDS. Even in these cases, though, treatment of the SMA syndrome can lead to a reduction in symptoms and an increased quality of life. Prognosis
Delay in the diagnosis of SMA syndrome can result in fatal catabolysis (advanced malnutrition), dehydration, electrolyte abnormalities, hypokalemia, acute gastric rupture or intestinal perforation (from prolonged mesenteric ischemia), gastric distention, spontaneous upper gastrointestinal bleeding, hypovolemic shock, and aspiration pneumonia. A 1-in-3 mortality rate for Superior Mesenteric Artery syndrome has been quoted by a small number of sources. However, after extensive research, original data establishing this mortality rate has not been found, indicating that the number is likely to be unreliable. While research establishing an official mortality rate may not exist, two recent studies of SMA syndrome patients, one published in 2006 looking at 22 cases and one in 2012 looking at 80 cases, show mortality rates of 0% and 6.3%, respectively.