Climate change-caused temperature increases and changes in precipitation patterns will likely differ between the different mountain regions, and the impacts of these changes on avalanches will change at different elevations. In the long term, avalanche frequency at lower elevations is expected to decline corresponding to a decrease in snow cover and depth, and a short-term increase in the number of wet avalanches are predicted.Precipitation is expected to increase, meaning more snow or rain depending on the elevation. Higher elevations predicted to remain above the seasonal snow line will likely see an increase in avalanche activity due to the increases in precipitation during the winter season. Storm precipitation intensity is also expected to increase, which is likely to lead to more days with enough snowfall to cause the snowpack to become unstable. Moderate and high elevations may see an increase in volatile swings from one weather extreme to the other. Predictions also show an increase in the number of rain on snow events, and wet avalanche cycles occurring earlier in the spring during the remainder of this century. Impacts on burial survival rate
The warm, wet snowpacks that are likely to increase in frequency due to climate change may also make avalanche burials more deadly. Warm snow has a higher moisture content and is therefore denser than colder snow. Denser avalanche debris decreases the ability for a buried person to breath and the amount of time they have before they run out of oxygen. This increases the likelihood of death by asphyxia in the event of a burial.
In the short-term, rain causes instability because, like a heavy snowfall, it imposes an additional load on the snowpack; and, once rainwater seeps down through the snow, it acts as a lubricant, reducing the natural friction between snow layers that holds the snowpack together. Most avalanches happen during or soon after a storm. Daytime exposure to sunlight will rapidly destabilize the upper layers of the snowpack if the sunlight is strong enough to melt the snow, thereby reducing its hardness. During clear nights, the snowpack can re-freeze when ambient air temperatures fall below freezing, through the process of long-wave radiative cooling, or both. Radiative heat loss occurs when the night air is significantly cooler than the snowpack, and the heat stored in the snow is re-radiated into the atmosphere. Dynamics
When a slab avalanche forms, the slab disintegrates into increasingly smaller fragments as the snow travels downhill. If the fragments become small enough the outer layer of the avalanche, called a saltation layer, takes on the characteristics of a fluid. When sufficiently fine particles are present they can become airborne and, given a sufficient quantity of airborne snow, this portion of the avalanche can become separated from the bulk of the avalanche and travel a greater distance as a powder snow avalanche.