L OM - I - Problem 11

In an urn, there are two balls: a white one and a black one. Additionally, we have 50 white balls and 50 black balls at our disposal. We perform the following action 50 times: we draw a ball from the urn, and then return it to the urn along with one more ball of the same color as the drawn ball. After completing these actions, we have 52 balls in the urn. What is the most probable number of white balls in the urn?
Let $ P(k,n) $, where $ 1 \leq k\leq n-1 $, denote the probability of the event that when there are $ n $ balls in the urn, exactly $ k $ of them are white. Then






Using the above relationships, we prove by induction (with respect to $ n $) that $ P(k,n) = 1/(n-1) $ for $ k = 1,2,\ldots,n-1 $. In particular






Therefore, each possible number of white balls after $ 50 $ draws (from $ 1 $ to $ 51 $) is equally likely.