XXVIII - II - Task 3

In a hat, there are 7 slips of paper. On the $ n $-th slip, the number $ 2^n-1 $ is written ($ n = 1, 2, \ldots, 7 $). We draw slips randomly until the sum exceeds 124. What is the most likely value of this sum?
The sum of the numbers $2^0, 2^1, \ldots, 2^6$ is $127$. The sum of any five of these numbers does not exceed $2^2 + 2^3 + 2^4 + 2^5 + 2^6 = 124$. Therefore, we must draw at least six slips from the hat.
Each of the events where we draw six slips from the hat, and the seventh slip with the number $2^{n-1}$ ($n = 1, 2, \ldots, 7$) remains in the hat, is equally likely. The probability of such an event is thus $\displaystyle \frac{1}{7}$.
The sum of the numbers on the drawn slips is equal to $127 - 2^{n-1}$. If $n = 1$, this sum is $126$; if $n = 2$, it is $125$; if $n = 3, 4, 5, 6$ or $7$, the sum is less than $124$ and we must draw a seventh slip. In this last case, the sum of the numbers on all the drawn slips will be $127$. Therefore, the probability that the sum of the numbers on all the slips drawn according to the conditions of the problem is $125$, $126$, or $127$, is $\displaystyle \frac{1}{7}$, $\displaystyle \frac{1}{7}$, $\displaystyle \frac{5}{7}$, respectively.
Thus, the most probable value of the sum is $127$.