Sample then Identify: A General Framework for Risk Control and Assessment in Multimodal Large Language Models
Qingni Wang Tiantian Geng Zhiyuan Wang Teng Wang Bo Fu Feng Zheng
Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) exhibit promising advancements across various tasks, yet they still encounter significant trustworthiness issues. Prior studies apply Split Conformal Prediction (SCP) in language modeling to construct prediction sets with statistical guarantees. However, these methods typically rely on internal model logits or are restricted to multiple-choice settings, which hampers their generalizability and adaptability in dynamic, open-ended environments. In this paper, we introduce *TRON*, a **t**wo-step framework for **r**isk c**o**ntrol and assessme**n**t, applicable to any MLLM that supports sampling in both open-ended and closed-ended scenarios. *TRON* comprises two main components: (1) a novel conformal score to **sample** response sets of minimum size, and (2) a nonconformity score to **identify** high-quality responses based on self-consistency theory, controlling the error rates by two specific risk levels. Furthermore, we investigate semantic redundancy in prediction sets within open-ended contexts for the first time, leading to a promising evaluation metric for MLLMs based on average set size. Our comprehensive experiments across four Video Question-Answering (VideoQA) datasets utilizing eight MLLMs show that *TRON* achieves desired error rates bounded by two user-specified risk levels. Additionally, deduplicated prediction sets maintain adaptiveness while being more efficient and stable for risk assessment under different risk levels.
generative models, calibration/uncertainty, inference methods
We propose a general framework for risk control and assessment, which creates rigorous prediction sets with statistical guarantees calibrated by two user-specified risk levels, applicable to any MLLMs supporting sampling in open-ended settings.