1. Field of the Invention
This invention generally relates to methods of statistical analysis, and more particularly to a system and method for predicting the actions, beliefs, and/or behaviors of a target population based on survey response data.
2. Description of the Related Art
Surveys are conducted to gather information which will allow an individual or corporation to make an informed decision. Many times, the information is used to gain an understanding of the beliefs and behaviors of a target population under a given set of circumstances. Responses to the survey questions, thus, provide a “snapshot in time” which reflects these current beliefs and behaviors.
The analysis of survey response data is particularly important in providing business services. Typically, businesses conduct surveys to determine the needs of their customers, and the underlying conditions which make their services desirable and valuable. This information is then used as a guide for improving the products or services or for offering new products or services. Surveys have also been used to capture public response to promotional messages from businesses, agencies, governments, and institutions.
Generally, it is difficult and costly to survey every member of a target population, i.e., to conduct a census. Therefore, polling organizations usually survey a subset (i.e., a representative sampling) of the population. Inferences about the beliefs or behaviors of the population are then drawn based on responses from the subset. To improve the accuracy of the surveys, a two-step approach is usually taken. First, a selection process or sampling methodology is used which dictates the rules by which members of the population are included in the sample. Second, an estimation process is performed for computing sample statistics that are sample estimates of population values.
Unfortunately, conventional survey methods merely attempt to interpret the past. No known survey methods exist which forecast responses or otherwise predict the future behavior patterns of a target population. A need therefore exists for a system and method for analyzing survey data which not only provides an accurate indication of past behavior of a target population, but which also establishes an accurate basis from which to determine the future likely beliefs and behavior of a target population.