question: Background: A country without strategies to limit the spread of a pandemic would likely result in a dramatic increase in the number of hospitalizations and deaths. Objective: to design a methodology based on probability theory to Predict the dynamics of total deaths due to Coronavirus 19 (COVID-19) in three countries. Methods: the total number of deaths from COVID-19 was systematized, from the day the first report was made public until April 17th, 2020 in China, Turkey, and Brazil. Eight ranges were established, which have a maximum and minimum value to correlate with the total COVID-19 deaths in each of these three countries. Next, the frequency of occurrence of each range and its probability were calculated. Subsequently, these same steps were performed, but in sub-spaces of eight consecutive days. Results: : the predictions gave probability values of 5.2E-43 for China, 4.4E-21 for Turkey and 7.9E-21 for Brazil. In orders of magnitude, China has a difference of 22 compared to the other two countries that have not reached the collapse of the health system that occurred in China. Additionally, the probability of the sub-spaces of these three countries reveals changes in the different ranges as the virus spreads. Conclusions: the probability values allow distinctions to be made between the dynamics of deaths from COVID-19 in different countries, additionally contributing to follow-up on pandemic mitigation interventions.