question: It has been observed that a sudden spurt in the number of COVID positive cases reported in the November 2020. The state government has started taking measure to prevent the spread of pandemic and to avert any probable fresh wave of COVID-19 as observed in some European countries. Moreover, winters are setting up in the northern regions of the country including Haryana which is argued as favorable condition for spread of the pandemic by some researchers. Ample data on COVID is now available about the pattern of spread of COVID-19 in the country as almost nine months have elapsed since the first positive COVID case was detected in India. This paper is designed to analyze the data based on district Gurugram of Haryana, COVID’s carriers effectiveness of the measures taken by the government, till now, to contain the spread of pandemic may also be inferred upon by the observations during this work. Finally, the significance of apprehension regarding onset of fresh wave of COVID may be predicted though the model. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.