Scheer can't beat Trudeau but he may be able to increase the PC seat count at the expense of the NDP and Bloc in Rural Quebec and Northern Ontario the ridings where his advocacy for supply management helped sell memberships and garner votes. Scheer could also sweep his home province of Saskatchewan which is strongly opposed to the carbon tax. Trudeau has his base in Southern Ontario and Urban Quebec locked up which could land him a second term. Trudeau's BC seats could not be at risk at all if the new provincial NDP there is a disaster than runs deficits and hikes taxes without the expected economic growth like the Trudeau Liberals.