text: OK, Elaine, you have the same information we have. 
  On the basis of this story, if you had to decide whether this story is "more likely true" or "more likely false" without any third option, how would you vote?
  
  Of course, the bishop is innocent until proven guilty; but that doesn't mean we have to assume  on available evidence that it is equally likely that he is not-guilty as that he is guilty.