Probability, Bayes Theorem, Conditional Probability, Inferential Statistics, Probability Distributions.
Disease) = 0.95 * 0.01 + (1–0.90) * (1–0.01) = 0.0495 + 0.009 = 0.0585 Step 4: Apply Bayes’ Theorem: P(Disease | Positive Test Result) = (P(Positive Test Result | Disease) * P(Disease)) / P(Positive Test Result) = (0.95 * 0.01) / 0.0585 = 0.0095 / 0.0585 ≈ 0.1624 Step 5: Obtain the Posterior