Monte Carlo, Markov Chains, Metropolis Hastings.
= 5 9. Compute likelihood: Likelihood = Binomial (5, 10, 0.43) = 0.229 10. Compute posterior: posterior = prior * likelihood = 1 * 0.229 = 0.229 11. Compute ratio of posterior(θt) / posterior(θt-1) r = 0.229/0.003 = 7.6 12. Accept or reject: r > 1, accept θ = 0.43, update prior =1, update