Pierre Simon Laplace, Inverse Probability, Central Limit Theorem, Probability, Deep Dives.
Beta function (Image by Author) P(p|X_bar_n ≤ 0.5) turns out to be vanishingly small. Thus, P(p|X_bar_n > 0.5) = 1 — P(p|X_bar_n ≤ 0.5) is basically 1.0. A moral certainty! Laplace concluded that the true ratio of male births to total births in Paris during 1745 to 1770 was definitely greater than