Pierre Simon Laplace, Inverse Probability, Central Limit Theorem, Probability, Deep Dives.
1900, Harvard University Press, Sept-1986 Barnard, G. A., and Bayes, T., Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics: IX. Thomas Bayes’s Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. Biometrika 45, no. 3/4, pp. 293–315, 1958, https://doi.org/10.2307/2333180. PDF download