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How to use Market Forecasts: Do the Opposite

The following example is almost too good to believe. 

by Jody Wilson at 7/23/2008 linc campbell said...

Committed may not have been a bad word to use though if he indeed is committed to holding SKF for another handful of months up to another year. I'd be surprised if $200 isn't a level of support at some point. Could he have made a smart short term move and sold then? Of course. But if he is truly committed to ride the trend...

...Financials are still in bad shape and IMHO there is a lot of bloodshed left to happen before it all shakes out. 
With the recent bailout of Fannie and Freddie, the news of Lehman in such back shape and so much discussion of Wamu potentially being non-existent in less than 12 months, I'm curious what you would say about SKF since it has pulled back. It appears to be a declining trend overall despite all the band news. I wonder if the government came out and said there would be "no more bailouts, priod" if this would shoot up like a rocket. 
Great question, Linc. You might be right that the prices in financials today reflect an expectation of more bailouts. This is the reason I'm reluctant to make forecasts in individual sectors - not only am I unsure what investors are thinking, but I'm even less sure of what the government is going to do! 

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