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Future of Money

A nickel ain’t worth a dime anymore.
Yogi Berra The concept of money dates back to the beginning of civilization.  Coins were stamped to certify that they contained the required weight, making trade trustworthy, even among strangers.

Money was a very efficient way to transact business, much better than bartering, or keeping track by notches on a stick. It was also a useful store of wealth, certainly more convenient than livestock or grains.  These two core functions – medium of exchange and supply of value – still define money today. (1)

Fiat Money In 1944, most countries tied their currency exchange rate to the US dollar, which was itself pegged to gold.  When the US went off the gold standard in 1971, all currencies essentially became fiat money; this meant that the value was derived from the governments that issued them rather than from commodities.

With fiat money, a country can increase or decrease its money supply at will, which gives it enormous control over its own economy. If the value is too low, it can cause hyperinflation; if it is too high, it limits export.

Black Money Unreported cash, or “under-the-table” transactions are common in some countries. In India, “black money” is outlawed, but is still widespread. Paying for a home, or any large purchase, is often at least party “black” – the reported price is an acceptable taxable valuation; in addition, extra, off-the-books cash money is offered as additional inducement. (2)

The total amount of black money deposited in foreign banks remains unknown. Some reports claim that black-money stashed by Indians in Switzerland exceeds US $12 trillion, while Swiss Banks themselves claim that it is “only about US $2 billion.”

In the US, a 2011 study concluded that around 20% of total reportable income is either not reported or not properly reported – this was about a half a trillion dollars in 2008.

End of Cash Cash is expensive to produce and maintain. Studies show that maintaining the US cash systems – printing new bills, recycling old ones, moving stacks of cash in armored trucks, replenishing ATM machines – costs about 1% of GDP. The marginal cost of a cash transaction is about double that of a debit-card transaction. (3)

The indirect costs of cash are substantial. A 2011 US study found that about a fifth of total reportable income – about U $500 billion – is hidden from tax reporting.  In 2008, it was estimated that secret offshore bank accounts were responsible for about 20% of the tax gap, which suggests that the remaining 80% can be attributed to unreported cash.

The need to move beyond cash has been recognized in many smaller countries. In the Netherlands, some shopping centers are completely cash free. In Sweden, the government and labor unions are cooperating to reduce the amount of cash in circulation because cash is the usual target of robberies.
 Cash is going out of style. For most people, it has become a small but unavoidable necessity. Established alternatives include checks and charge cards: credit or debit.

Credit-card authorization via the magnetic-stripe card was developed in the ’70s and was in wide use by the ’90s. In 2011, 6 billion magnetic-strip bankcards around the world went through card readers some 50 billion times. (4)

Most cards contain a mag stripe that is scanned for identification. In Europe and some other regions the mag-stripe card has been fully eclipsed by the smart card which has a microchip embedded to track activity. About 85% of transactions can be authorized just from the information stored on the chip. Smart cards can also have a hidden PIN for personal identification, entered by the user without being revealed to the equipment reading the card, which is a big improvement in security.

End of Credit Cards In Europe, ATM theft from skimming and other fraud added up to €23 million in the second half of 2010. In the US, where simple and relatively insecure mag-stripe cards still predominate, ATM fraud and theft is generally assumed to be a far larger problem – at least $1 billion every year.

The end is near for common mag-stripe cards, and even the chip-based credit card. Emerging smartphone-based pay schemes are now starting to catch on and will eventually eclipse the old charge card. Soon people will be able to touch some soft keys on their cellphone to buy something – no credit card needed. This type of completely electronic transaction will steadily shrink the use of cash. The most ambitious and failsafe identification uses Biometrics – viewing the delicate lattice of branching blood vessels unique to each person, just like fingerprints. Customers can simply flash a hand near the sensor. (5)

Hitachi and Fujitsu have been working for years to commercialize biometric identification by individual vein configurations. The technology has been tested at 80,000 ATMs in Japan and is working so well that it is expected to move into widespread use relatively quickly.

Technology is transforming the nature of trans­actions and altering the way we ­interact with the vast, churning digital economy that already pervades. Finally, in theory at least, the new digital money cannot be counterfeited.

Mobile Phones – the Ultimate Currency Exchange The ubiquitous mobile phone is an enabling technology, an attractive alternative to cash. Beyond credit card authorization in business, the mobile phone makes it easy for people to pay each other. (6)

Within a few years all over the world, the mobile phone will be taking over and will change money forever. Switching among dollars and euros and frequent-flier miles and Facebook Credits and Google Bucks and any other form of money will be just a matter of choosing from a menu on a phone.

The cost of introducing new currencies will collapse. The future of money won’t be the science-fiction idea of a single galactic currency, but the ability to switch between and use hundreds or thousands or even millions of currencies.

Bank Transformation Clearly, the global financial system must be based on more than just manipulation by a small group of central bankers. After centuries of dominance, most banks recognize that they have to change. (7) (8)

Until recently, the banking industry enjoyed comfortably stable revenues. They toyed with new technologies and social trends without really developing a clear strategy around how to harness them. Today, however, banking is undergoing an unprecedented revolution that’s being spurred on by technology. The recent worldwide economic instability and the inexorable rise of the smartphone will force banks steadily to develop innovative strategies and implement different tactics.

Virtual Currency – Bitcoin This discussion of money is not complete without at least a brief discussion of Bitcoin. This electronic-cash system concept was introduced in a 2008 paper by a developer known only as "Satoshi Nakamoto". (9)

Servers, called bitcoin “miners” process and confirm transactions after adding them to a ledger. The ledger is updated and archived periodically using peer-to-peer file sharing. Each new ledger update creates some newly minted bitcoins. The number of new bitcoins created in each update is halved every 4 years until the year 2140 when this number will round down to zero. At that time no more bitcoins will be added into circulation and the total number of bitcoins will have reached a maximum of 21 million bitcoins. To accommodate this limit, each bitcoin is subdivided down to eight decimal places, forming 100 million smaller units called satoshis.

Bitcoin is open-source; its design is public; nobody owns or controls it and everyone can take part. Bitcoins can be transferred through a computer or smartphone without any intermediate financial institution. It has a fluctuating value linked in part to scarcity that is mathematically predetermined. Unlike other forms of digital cash, Bitcoin is truly untraceable and therefore, like cash, cannot be recovered if lost or destroyed. (10)
Bitcoin is a “crypto currency”, not backed by any government. Unlike traditional currencies where central banks decide how much money to print, no central authority governs the supply of bitcoins. It is not backed by physical assets, is not run by any person or group, and its value depends on people's confidence in the currency. The current price of one bitcoin is $237; it went as high as $ 979 in November 2013, compared to about $12 in 2012. The market remains highly volatile. (11)

A small but growing number of stores, travel agents and online merchants are starting to accept this digital currency as a means of payment. One couple recently traveled the world using only bitcoins.

Bitcoin has a credible future as an alternative to traditional payment methods. Momentum is coming from around the world, as investors, venture capitalists and technology enthusiasts keep pumping money into bitcoin-related businesses. The volume of transactions remains tiny, but some think bitcoins could eventually become as omnipresent as email. (12)

Let’s Engage Jim Pinto
Carlsbad, CA.
Posted by Jim Pinto at 2:44 PM 19 comments: 


Human Enhancement Trends The advances of technology, especially the ones that seem to encroach on human abilities, often seem objectionable and even "against nature" – till they become commonplace.

Common enhancements today I remember seeing a movie about an aging, shortsighted gunfighter, quick on the draw. He was losing his eyesight till a nerdy dude arrived from somewhere out east and provided him with spectacles – which, of course, restored his sharpshooter prowess. Hey, if you remember the name of that old movie, please let me know. I'd like to watch it again.

Today, approximately 75% of adults use some sort of vision correction. So, it's considered normal. How about taking pills to improve your health? How normal is that? Well, it's acceptable – until it turns out to be a steroid that actually enhances human performance in sports. Then it’s illegal and grounds for being disqualified.(1)  So, should steroid use be acceptable for humans in combat? Would it be OK to give steroids to our troops? (2) These are all questions. Your answers are as good as mine.
 Let's go off in another direction. Artificial Intelligence (AI) usually refers to machine intelligence. The inverse, Intelligence Augmentation (IA) slips into everyday use much more quickly, providing users with "unfair" advantages. When anyone asks me something – almost anything – I simply consult my Google-connected smart-phone and provide the answer. Is that a fair test of my knowledge and intelligence?

So, should a student be allowed to use a smart-phone in a test? Or, use Google-glasses? Don't be too quick to answer because within the next few years microchips will be inserted into the body, with effects similar to "brain steroids"? Who will know?

Chip implants present some intriguing possibilities and ethical concerns. But, my feeling is that increasingly common usage will sweep away objections. This trend will start with volunteers and people who would benefit directly, and then become commonplace.

Increasing human abilities Technology continues to give humans what seem like superpowers. Human enhancement technologies (HET) are not just simply for treating illness and disabilities, but also for enhancing human abilities beyond the existing human range.

For some, HET includes the convergence of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science to improve human performance. Cochlear implants can restore some hearing for the deaf. Many scientists and researchers are working on restoring vision for the blind. A lot of progress has been made in the genetic engineering arena. This will not be addressed in this blog because changes in human genetic enhancement take place slowly; genetically engineered human children typically take several decades to grow to adulthood.

Smart Gadgets There are now 4 billion mobile phones in use worldwide. The super-computer of yesteryear is now in everyone’s hands. Do you use a smart-phone? Has it changed your life? When you go to a restaurant, have you noticed how many people are staring at their phones? This has become invasive and many think it is ruing the quality of life.

Indeed, this is the very reason for the introduction of the Apple Watch. This new gadget has been very carefully planned to enhance the user’s life to make the best use of its size and location on the wrist. It has new interactions and technologies to let people do familiar things more quickly and conveniently, plus some things that simply weren’t possible before. So using it is expected to be a whole new personal experience. (3) Hey, I’ve already ordered my Apple Watch and it should arrive within the next couple of weeks.

Wearable technology is becoming common - body temperature, blood pressure, electro-cardiograms and other sensors. In Time magazine's March 25 2013 issue, "Wear Your Doctor" is one of their "10 Big Ideas". (4) Prosthetic limbs are becoming more advanced, allowing people who've lost a limb to live more normal lives. Oscar Pistorius, the South African sprint runner, had both his legs amputated below the knee when he was 11 months old. Still, he competed and won against regular (non-disabled) athletes.

The International Athletics Federation has banned some artificial limbs because of unfair advantage. (5) So, when artificial organs are not visible, will they become acceptable? Or, will testing for prosthetics become as common as steroid testing?

Muscle Augmentation Muscle augmentation will soon be common. The military is working on Spider-Man suits that enable wearers to scale vertical walls. Advanced robotic suits enable workers to lift heavy loads. (6)(7)

Future neural implants could allow humans to manipulate real-world objects with their minds. Researchers demonstrated how a quadriplegic woman used electrodes in her motor cortex to feed herself chocolate with a robotic arm. (8)

Mental Enhancement On the medical side, mental "enhancers" and physical stimulants are becoming fairly common. (9) Today, many office workers start each day with a dose of caffeine or other energy-boosting drinks. There are pills and drinks to enhance cognition, mood, personality, physical performance, and even the biological processes of aging. (10)

Drugs and digital technologies are already allowing people to work harder, longer, and smarter. Soon, it may even be possible that employers will start to demand (implicitly or explicitly) that employees "augment" themselves with stimulants. The resulting implications to work and human values raises serious ethical concerns. Many bioethicists suggest that at least some of these regenerative medicines and enhancement technology developments should be regulated. (11)

Eliminating the Need for Humans As I write this, millions of entrepreneurs, engineers, scientists, corporations and universities and are racing to create self-driving cars, automated call centers, chess-playing and Jeopardy-playing computers that beat all human players. The frightening thing is that this kind of artificial intelligence will soon eliminate low-skilled human jobs in startling numbers. This wave is approaching from the other direction.

The first wave of unemployed workers will be millions of taxi and truck drivers who will be replaced by self-driving trucks. The human frailty and unpredictability of pilots will soon be eliminated. As new computer vision systems come online, we will see tens of millions of workers in retail stores, fast food restaurants and construction sites replaced by robots. There increasingly be tens of millions of workers who are unemployed and seeking welfare.

Marshall Brain (yes, that’s his real name, Brain) has just published a new book, “The Second Intelligent Species: How Humans Will Become as Irrelevant as Cockroaches”. (12) This book explores how the future will unfold as the second intelligent species emerges.

Where is this going? How will this all unfold in the next couple of decades? My youngest grandson will be a teenager, and my other grandchildren will be twenty-something.

What's your view?


Don’t just read passively. Please answer the following questions directly in the blog. Include your own comments and ideas. 8 May 2015

Posted by Jim Pinto at 9:40 PM 12 comments: